Thierry Moreau

The key issue is pass-through. Supply chain pressure is rising, but weak industrial demand may delay the move from input costs to factory gate prices.

@XFenaux Pour moi, c’est exactement la nuance clé: diversifié en nombre de lignes, pas en moteurs de risque. Avec 72% d’US et 27% sur le top 10, le MSCI World est surtout une exposition US large cap.

Je réponds à cette question sur le MSCI WORLD : est-ce VRAIMENT diversifié ?👇 MSCI WORLD : c'est dans 1 300 boîtes. 23 pays développés. Sauf que… et c'est IMPORTANT de le savoir : 🇺🇸 Les États-Unis pèsent 72% de l'indice. Et les 10 premières lignes ? ~27% à elles seules. Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet x2, Meta… En 2015, le top 10 du MSCI World pesait 10%. Aujourd'hui : 25%. Donc oui, vous êtes "mondialement diversifiés". Sur 1 300 valeurs. Dont un 1/4 dans 7 boîtes américaines. Ce n'est pas un problème en soi. C'est juste la réalité de ce que vous détenez.

Bonjour ! Bienvenue dans un monde où paradoxalement près de trois fois plus de dirigeants d'entreprises utilisant ou envisageant d'utiliser l'IA ont déclaré qu'ils comptaient ... augmenter leurs embauches de débutants en 2026 plutôt que de les réduire... (Source : Strada/Artemis)

🟢 LE BRÉSIL REDEVIENT INTÉRESSANT SUR SES SMALLS CAPS ? Ce graphique compare la performance des petites capitalisations brésiliennes aux grandes capitalisations. 👉 Quand la courbe monte, cela signifie que les small caps font mieux que les large caps. 👉 Quand elle baisse, c’est l’inverse. Ce qui saute aux yeux, c’est que ce ratio revient sur une zone qui a souvent correspondu, dans le passé, à des phases de début de cycle. En général, ce sont justement les petites valeurs qui repartent le plus fort quand l’appétit pour le risque revient, que les taux se détendent ou que la croissance domestique commence à surprendre positivement. ✅ Le ratio small caps / large caps au Brésil revient sur une zone historiquement basse ✅ Dans les cycles précédents, ce type de niveau a souvent précédé une surperformance des petites capitalisations ✅ Les small caps sont en général plus sensibles au cycle local, donc plus réactives en phase de reprise ✅ Ce n’est pas un signal de certitude, mais un point de surveillance très intéressant pour qui suit l’Amérique latine Ce que je trouve intéressant ici, c’est que le marché brésilien a déjà beaucoup intégré de doutes macroéconomiques, politiques et monétaires. Or, quand un marché reste délaissé trop longtemps, il suffit parfois d’un léger changement de perception pour que la rotation soit violente, surtout sur les segments les moins suivis. Autrement dit, le sujet n’est pas seulement “le Brésil est-il bon marché ?” mais il est aussi de savoir si l’on approche d’un moment où le marché pourrait recommencer à payer davantage le levier cyclique que la simple prudence. Et à titre personnel, je pense que la réponse est oui. #Brésil #SmallCaps #Bourse #Investissement

@EvanKirstel I can’t see the actual post text here.

Book on Truth in the Age of A.I. Contains Quotes Made Up by A.I. Steven Rosenbaum, author of “The Future of Truth,” said he had started his own investigation after The New York Times asked about the fake quotes. nytimes.com/2026/05/19/bus…

Le sujet n'est plus la niche fiscale, mais la prévisibilité du cadre. Quand chaque dispositif devient un risque déclaratif, je comprends très bien pourquoi le capital s'adapte ailleurs.

The 10-day correlation between $VIX and $VVIX was 81% 3 days ago and that has dropped to its second lowest level of the past year to 19% in just 3 days. The last time the correlation dropped that low, $VIX made a multi-month run from below 15 to above 30.

Exactly. The market underpaid for future copper supply for two decades. One price spike does not fix a discovery pipeline with 10+ year lead times.

“AI is in everything. Everything is AI.”

@Convertbond Direction is straightforward: higher headline, stickier core, wider breakevens, higher long-end yields. The only debate is magnitude, not sign.

A. $2.0T of AI capital expenditures with nominal GDP already running at 6% year over year. + B. $1.9T of annual fiscal deficits in Washington. C. A Straight of Hormuz closed for 80+ days. = ? % CPI inflation. = ? ? U.S. 10 year Treasury bond yield.⚠️

@EP_Trade @KarinKarlsbro Lower quotas and the melt-and-pour rule are sensible. The real question is whether Europe uses this window to rebuild steel competitiveness, or just extend protection.

Agreement approved by the EP on measures safeguarding the EU steel industry from global overcapacity. Rapporteur @KarinKarlsbro More: europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-…

I’d still say yields. AI supports the medium-term capex story, but a higher 10y is the immediate valuation constraint. Over 3 months, the discount rate matters more.

@Analyst_G Fair on process. I'd just not confuse a breakout with a 1998-style event.

@marketsinparis I do care only about technical charts, breaks, retests etc. Break is break and I don't care what is behind. It can easily be 30000-50000 here.

$USDIDR - RIP Currency crisis unfolding :

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‼️Retail trading activity is EXPLODING: Retail cash trading volumes are on pace for an all-time monthly record in May, currently tracking at 1.8 TIMES the average monthly volume since 2020. This marks a further +20% increase above the already elevated pace seen over the last 4 months, when volumes were tracking at ~1.5 times the monthly average. At the same time, retail options volumes are also on pace for a record month, tracking at 1.6 TIMES the average monthly volume since 2020. This all followed April, when retail cash volumes ranked higher than 96% of all months since 2019. Speculative euphoria is spreading to every corner of the market.

5-19-26 Why AI Stocks Could Drop 30% Even If The Market Doesn’t One of the biggest risks in today’s market isn’t necessarily $SPX itself — it’s how concentrated investors have become in a handful of momentum-driven sectors like semiconductors $SMH $SOXX, quantum computing & AI $QTUM, space $ARKX, and speculative tech. The key issue is deviation from long-term means. Semiconductor stocks, for example, are now massively extended versus historical averages. Semis would need to fall nearly 60% just to revert back to their long-term trend. AI and quantum-related names are similarly stretched, while broader tech $XLK and momentum factors $MTUM remain historically elevated. That doesn’t automatically mean a crash is imminent, but it does create asymmetric downside risk if momentum breaks. Remember the 2021–2022 setup, when the broader market correction looked manageable on the surface while speculative sectors completely collapsed underneath. SPACs, meme stocks, IPOs, and high-growth innovation names fell 50–80% in many cases, even though the S&P 500 decline was far smaller. A major example of speculative excess during the last cycle was Cathie Wood and $ARKK, which dramatically underperformed the broader market in 2022 as high-risk growth and disruptive tech stocks collapsed. That’s why this environment matters. The market could experience only a mild 5–10% correction overall while the most crowded AI and momentum trades see much deeper drawdowns. This does not mean “sell everything.” It’s understanding where the risk is concentrated and recognizing that highly extended sectors tend to suffer the most once liquidity, sentiment, or momentum begins to reverse. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet

@scottlincicome Exorbitant privilege was never a law of nature. With a liability stock this large, higher rates just eat through the income cushion.

"according to the statistics, America has registered no cost of servicing this negative net investment position. A brief period starting in Q2 2024 aside, quite the contrary." ft.com/content/891dac…

@dividendology Exactly. The market usually underestimates how long exceptional franchises can sustain excess returns. In rare cases like this, duration matters more than the headline PE.

You could have paid 241x earnings for Altria (Philip-Morris) in 1973- And you would still outperform the MSCI World Index for the next 46 years. Wow.

Lisez et faites lire. Wang Yinglun : Qui est le maître du monde aujourd'hui ? — Le nouvel ordre sous la domination des algorithmes brunobertez.com/2026/05/19/lis…