Austin Finn

#BITCOIN 4 YEAR CYCLE There’s a lot of confusion around the so-called “4 year cycle”, so a clarification is needed. The 4 year cycle is not a rigid template of 3 green yearly candles followed by 1 red one. That’s a visual outcome, not the mechanism. What matters is the market regime, not the calendar color. A cycle is not invalidated because the last year closes red. We’ve already seen green years that actually marked the start of a bear market. Example: 2021 closed green, yet the bear market started in November 2021 and extended well into 2022. The regime shifted before the yearly close. So there is red, and there is red. What would actually invalidate the 4 year cycle? - A following year turning structurally bullish - Expansion, trend continuation, acceptance above prior highs - Instead of a prolonged bear phase / corrective regime Until that happens, a red yearly close does not break the cycle by itself, particularly when the close is hovering around the yearly opening. I’m not married to the idea that the 4 year cycle must hold forever. But if it’s broken, it should be broken by price behavior, not by wishful thinking or rigid templates. Cycles are validated or invalidated by follow-through.

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