Roanoke Cap

@markflowchatter This isn’t a short report. This is literally just a summary of their business model

on $APP new short out now from HEDGEYE with a 30% downside report - AppLovin's competitive moat is not primarily AXON, its machine learning model. It is MAX, the mediation platform that controls over 60% of mobile gaming impressions globally and provides the proprietary auction data that makes AXON's predictions possible. Without MAX, AXON's performance is materially worse. Outside of gaming, where MAX does not control mediation, the same model delivers inconsistent results.

@Sagarawat1 its down because $app has become such a serious competitor to $meta that they finally have to take the threat seriously. & apparently the market thinks rewarding past performance instead of outstanding execution is the play today. $app probably buying back a ton today.

@roanokecap I really don't understand why $app is down today??

$APP $META Market has this wrong and is rewarding past performance. APP team is hyper focused and lean while META is scouring for every penny after multiple failed initiatives and brain drain. APP’s moat has been built and widened over a decade.

$APP Directly contradicting multiple analyst reports over the last couple of weeks indicating that ecom momentum was strong. Market wants to sell this off for now and it will take 2-3 strong earnings to turn the ship around.

@UvyatM @Nietschecapital gotta be a short report

$app down -5 on no news? Here we go again 😂 @Nietschecapital u seen anything yet?

@maandood keeps dropping tho. gotta be some news coming. short report?

@maandood makes sense. what a random stock lol

$APP 390-410 order block 400 - 0.756 fib Would love to add in 390-400 area if we dip here Already have a few shares sitting at 435 This looks like a start of a 3rd wave, unless invalidated it sends us somewhere 650+

@amjadt25 fight the war yourself then. buncha clowns

The UAE stands as a strong partner of the United States. No ceasefire with the Islamic regime in Iran. Not now. You don’t negotiate with terror. You end it. The UAE stands firm. Zero space for terrorists. Germany, Britain, Spain's governments say they want a diplomatic solution with this terrorist regime. Fine. Let it be your neighbour. Take its leadership, as you did with the Muslim Brotherhood. Give them citizenship. They are all yours. If you want the rubbish, take it but don’t ask us to accept it or live with it. It stinks. You can have it. Live with it alone. This Saturday will not pass quietly. It will be marked. It will be remembered.

@buccocapital Ironically the ones that aren’t shortsighted at defensible companies will have outsized gains in the long term

Interestingly, investors are accelerating the death of seat-based software by destroying these stocks before the businesses even see any AI impact The talent is leaving, destroying their ability to adapt to AI Another downside to being a public business (and excessive SBC)

@rBillSimmonsPod Maybe, but there's also the fact that the NBA is facing a regular season problem and introducing another middling team definitely would do nothing to help that.

Best explanation I've heard yet for Simmons doing a 180 on NBA expansion

@WisemanCap All I know is this analyst rated $APP a sell right before it went on one of the great bull runs in history. sahmcapital.com/news/content/b…

Benchmark on $TTD Ad Age is reporting that Omnicom is now commissioning its own third party audit of TTD, following a similar Publicis audit last week. As highlighted in our “Flipping Publicis Debate on Its Head” report last week, this further confirms a pivotal power rebalance underfoot between holdcos and TTD as AI automation grips the core planning and execution functions of these big agencies. This deepening economic tension is further exacerbated by TTD’s agentic-friendly model, increasingly more transparent pricing, supply path optimization via OpenPath, and AI automation via Kokai. The irony here is that Publicis, and we suspect now Omnicom, are attempting to call out TTD’s lack of fee transparency to divert attention from their own historically opaque pricing and margin pools that are increasingly under the microscope of their large advertiser clients. We are buyers of TTD shares on related weakness.

@thomaschattwill what a dumbass take. its the equivalent of going to yale's campus and using that as a representation of the average 20 year old.

A lot of the problems in the world right now can be explained by this video. For one thing, it’s a big reason why the US government is so unaccountable to public opinion. These are *college students.* A significant amount of the country is totally checked out and comfortable enough not to think it matters.

@BigActionBill It’s comfort food, not a Michelin star meal

You can’t learn this in broadcasting school folks…

@Ad_Quant @bombayquant @WisemanCap They have every right to try. I just think it’s funny the market faded app so hard when the cloudx launch happened, effectively rewarding repeated failures.

@roanokecap @bombayquant @WisemanCap Grifters, running the same playbook with an AI spin now

$TTD Buy the weakness - Benchmark - We are buyers of TDD shares on related weakness - Suspects Publicis and Omnicom are desiring to bring attention to TTD issues with transparency on fees "to divert from their own historically opaque pricing and margin pools that are increasingly under the microscope..."

@Ad_Quant @bombayquant @WisemanCap If they could’ve built applovin they would’ve built applovin. Cloudx is the latest in a series of attempts to build something with a kernel of potential that gets acquired.

@bombayquant @WisemanCap CloudX is not ex applovin founders mate. These were acquihires, and let’s be very clear that Max and MoPub were dog shit before AppLovin took them over

@buccocapital @akramsrazor In this environment the only choice is to invest in the strongest leadership you can find with a successful track record of navigating uncertainty and challenges in the past. The only other alternative is to not invest at all and good luck with that.

Must read from @akramsrazor The market has completely given up on trying to figure out who wins from AI. It will only buy the inputs. But: "If you can't make money in every software, adtech, media, info services biz, and hyperscaler, then why are you buying lasers and cables? The picks-and-shovels trade isn’t insulated from the demand/return question, it's a levered bet on it."

@TCIIIyeee you had me until mlb is ahead of anything. that's what a real dying sport looks like

Mark Cuban and them boys did all that yappin about the NBA taking over the NFL. There's a legit argument that MLB is ahead of the NBA right now.

@NickyCashin Sad but true. If the players don't care, why should the fans? And stop with the nonsense about the playoffs being a whole different beast.

Going from watching March Madness to the NBA is one of the most painful things I’ve ever done. How do people actually watch this league on a day to day basis and enjoy it?

@SuppressedNws1 Wow way to drive a narrative. Why didn't you conduct these interviews at Yale?

“The BIGGEST issue in America is what BIKINI I’m wearing tomorrow” “We’re going to war with IRAQ that’s been crazy” “I’ve NEVER heard the word Ayatollah in my life” “Is Venezuela in SPAIN?” America’s future looks so bright lol.