ExAdTechQuant

Release Leopold Aschenbrenner’s damn 13F already!!

$PLTR

Are people just overlooking what the $APP CEO said? This opportunity is ridiculous. The consumer release of AXON is a $2B opportunity in year ONE. On the Q1 $APP earnings call, Adam shared some numbers he pulled prior to the call starting. Check this out... - $APP expects +$70k per new client on AXON. - $APP rarely churns once a client hits 30-days. - $APP used the number 100,000 new customers in the 1st yr. Here's the exact quote: "Right now, we're projecting well over $70k a year from every new customer. If you just wanna size that, if we open up the platform and sign on 100,000 customers in the next year, first year revenue from them, or ad spend, advertising spend, would be roughly $7 billion." – Adam, CEO To be honest, I don't think the market appreciates the opportunity at hand. Even knowing that $7B is gross ad spend and not top-line revenue, let's run the real numbers on what actually shifts into the financials... Assuming a total conservative 35% ad-network take rate, that $7B in gross spend translates to $2.45B in net new revenue. $APP operates with an 85% Adj EBITDA margin. Because this new consumer rollout is a fully automated, self-serve AI platform, they don't need a massive human sales team eating into those profits. Margins will stay pretty much the same. Therefore... $2.45B in net revenue x 85% margin = $2.08 BILLION in pure incremental EBITDA. - Q1 TTM revenues: $6.16B - Theoretical Y1 net revenue: $2.45B - Top-line uplift (TTM): 39.8% - Theoretical Y1 incremental EBITDA: $2.08B This gives $APP the potential to inject over $2 BILLION in pure profit into the company within the first year of mature cohort spending. Adam also mentioned that they rarely churn after 30 days, in essence that $2 billion becomes the new baseline floor. Why do i feel like the market just overlooked this whole thing? How are you bearish this company? $APP

Looks like another short report of something else coming for $APP. Classic Fri drop... Waiting for it to come so we can ridicule it and buy more!