Bob Lean

@factor_members Hi Peter, why not here? As a grain trader myself I'm seeing burdensome global stocks and a real lack of demand. I'd love to see some volatility as flat markets are not our friends.

@ctindale @profplum99 Australia!

Waller still assumes a stateless consumption model can be stabilized with CPI management. It can’t. You suppress prices in bread and milk, inflate shelter through financial channels, exclude the industrial economy from the model, and call the outcome “price stability.” What you actually get is a fat-tail failure: an economy that serves coffee to itself, borrows against housing, and renovates bathrooms while productive capacity decays. The model closes cleanly. Reality doesn’t. All you get is rate based model that screams out to be gamed by rivals

I have my issues with Waller, but he is the ONLY Fed voter with a legitimately fully formed model of how the world works. Uniquely, this positions him to make an actual forecast while the rest of them flail around with reactive (or political) responses.

@factor_members Hi Peter, are you comfortable calling the AUDUSD a H & S top here?

Unlock Your Financial Potential with Real Vision 🚀 Join our community and take control of your financial future. 👉 Join Real Vision Today. Your future self will thank you... buff.ly/3VAgPof

@TrialTrack Any winners at MV TT?

Race 5 Deep maiden - Four main chances Penman - 1.5 units win Flying ace - 1 unit win

@TrialTrack Don't stop now

Huge day!! 🐎 💰

So @benmezrich’s thread led me to this + Morey St Denis. Perfection.

@TrialTrack Legend! Anything today?

+12.3 units yesterday 🐎 💰

@TrialTrack The suspense today is killing me

Miss cheviots $3bt 🐎 💰

@TrialTrack Our Heidi 😩

Cox plate day 🐎 Moonee valley Race 2 Grandview Avenue - .5unit win/ .5unit place Race 3 Our Heidi - 1 unit win Race 10 Flying mascot - 1 unit win Yarra valley Race 1 She goes bango - 1 unit win Dempster - 1 unit win Race 2 Founex - 2 units win

@TrialTrack 🤮

Sale Race 1 Zerelle - 1.5 units win Lightfast - 1 unit win Race 2 Madagascar miss - 1.5 units win Holy Spirit - 1 unit win Race 3 McGrath - 1 unit win Mofang - 1.5 units win

@factor_members Hi Peter, any data on reliability of multi year patterns and would you label this a pos 9yr H&S USDJPY?

Filling new storage with a siphon.

The official Australian #wheat crop forecast is 19.1 million tonnes ... What is it really? Have your say below. 💥🌧️🌵 @theGRDC @StefanGrainMan @CrundallNick @MGSbomen @GrainGrowersLtd @HoskingBrett @AdamRGT @chopskell @Agfarm @afsnsw @grainvic @WheatWatcher @GrainIndustryWA

@RaoulGMI @TeddyVallee So is this the time to double up on long ED's like the trader in your story on Meb Faber podcast?

@TeddyVallee yes...see my latest tweet

This is what I am pondering - are we at the June 2001 moment? I've been expecting it and it feels like it. I'll do some more work on it and let a few more days pass, but catching a falling knife feels like the right opportunity to me. Hmm...

@factor_members What has been your experience trading contract spreads using classical charting?

@factor_members I'm by no means an expert (physical trader in Australia) but I know it is deliverable. It's a costly process involving physical movement between elevators into Chi deliverable sites. I'll do some more research and find out the exact calcs.

@factor_members KC/Chi the same. SRW crop coming in better than expected and loads of HRW being fed and only 10cpbu away from HRW working into Chicago delivery system.

@kannbwx Do you have final yield data for these years?

Here are all the years since 1981 in which July 7 silking progress for #corn was 8% or less. That was true in at least 11 of these years, including 2013 and 2008. No report for 2 other years. USDA reported the 2019 progress for July 7 at 8%. Five-year average is 22%.

Summary of Crop Progress, July 7: #Corn 57% good/exc (+1 on week), 8% silking (22% avg) #Soybeans 53% good/exc (-1 on wk), 10% blooming (32% avg) Winter #wheat 47% harvested (avg 61%, last wk 30%) Spring wheat 78% good/exc (+3 on wk), 56% headed (73% avg)

@kenringweather Should we assume this rain is not coming?

Weather across Australia 18-24 June 2019 Allow 24 hour error as in all forecasting.