Rob Unhedged

@AlexesNakamoto He should have stuck to macro forecasting, something he's knowledgeable on.

Prophecy fulfilled. Raoul Pal’s investment track record remains unmatched. Zcash -50% and still falling.

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. This is exactly why I’m posting about it, to learn and stress test the thesis. I completely get your point on CagriSema. My broader view is just that $NVO ’s thesis doesn’t necessarily rely on it winning, especially with how strong oral Wegovy looks out of the gate, and if amycretin keeps developing well. Out of interest, would you model CagriSema as basically a niche product now, or still meaningful but below original expectations?

Hey Rob, great post - thank you! I’m also a Novo investor, but I’ve evaluated this in my previous post which I’ve linked below. I agree, WL isn’t the only factor to determine a drug’s success. Factors like tolerability & safety, matter too. Which is actually why I think Wegovy pill is far superior than foundayo - we both agree here 👌🏼 I disagree however on your take with CS. From my perspective, as a doctor, what would be my rationale for prescribing CS? I can’t blindly prescribe it. - if my patients wanted oral pills for convenience, I would prescribe Wegovy pill within a heartbeat. - if my patients wanted an injectable, because they want greater rate of WL; I’d prescribe Tzp given it’s superior to CS (as Novo has proven, via its own clinical trial failure) Does that make sense? Medically speaking, why would I choose CS over Tzp? It’s a next gen drug, expectations are that it SHOULD be more superior than current gen meds. It’s failed. Across competitors and its own current gen pipeline too.

$NVO I am not convinced CagriSema matters quite as much as certain bears would have you believe. Yes, Novo needs next gen drugs. Yes, CagriSema was supposed to help defend the franchise against $LLY. But I think the market is over-weighting its significance. Many patients using obesity drugs may not need the most aggressive weight-loss option available. For a mass-market obesity treatment, I don’t think the winner will simply be the drug with the highest headline weight-loss number. It is probably the drug with the best mix of: • enough weight loss • safety • tolerability • convenience • adherence • access • long-term outcomes That is why Wegovy still matters. That is why oral Wegovy may matter even more. A pill that delivers “good enough” weight loss with strong uptake will be more commercially important than a stronger injectable aimed at patients needing deeper weight loss. CagriSema is still useful. It gives Novo another pathway, another patient segment, and one possible bridge across the semaglutide cliff. But I don’t think Novo’s entire future depends on it becoming the undisputed obesity king. The bigger question is whether Novo can build a portfolio of: Wegovy injection Oral Wegovy Higher-dose Wegovy CagriSema Amycretin new indications for existing pipeline future licensed assets If that portfolio holds together, CagriSema does not need to carry the whole Novo thesis. It just needs to be one useful piece of the bridge.

I agree, tolerability is likely a bigger issue for people than headline weight loss. That’s actually the point I’m getting at really. In a chronic obesity mass-market treatment, the best overall profile may matter more than max weight loss. I think oral wegovy is looking really strong there, which is why I don't think CagriSema needs to carry the thesis on the stock price recovery.

@robunhedged The issue is CagriSema's poor tolerability, not its slightly worse efficacy. Wegovy oral is doing well because as an oral it has best-in-class tolerability and efficacy. If you want an oral, it's the best available. CagriSema can compete some on price, however.

@SubtleInduction @investseekers Oral wegovy will dominate the obesity market

@robunhedged @investseekers Tirzepatide continues to dominate and oral wegovy is an inferior molecule in a low quality segment.

Fierce Pharma has finally updated its oral GLP-1 prescription tracker for $NVO and $LLY The latest data show: • Oral Wegovy: 146,000 prescriptions in week 20, up from 142,000 in week 19. • Foundayo: 16,011 prescriptions in week 7, down from 16,698 in week 6. For context, oral Wegovy recorded 66,748 prescriptions in its own week 7.

@blightydandy @AdaLluch Exactly mate. It's been obvious for decades I've been voting against this since I was in my teens and I'm mid 30's now.

@robunhedged @AdaLluch It is madness that it has had to come to this for the elite class to realise that this isn’t some bleeding hearts charitable endeavour. It really didn’t have to be this way.

This is Brussels right now. Despite being offered all the help and resources once they arrive into our nations, migrants choose to cause terror on our streets. And rape our women. And steal from our grandparents. Our cultures are simply not compatible.

@blightydandy @AdaLluch They only seem to get it when it personally affects them. This should start to happen much more often and quickly now that the migrants are being moved in to much smaller towns and villages.

@AdaLluch Ada I know you know they are not here to assimilate. They are here to destroy. Our biggest hurdle are White Liberals, as they still believe they are being humanitarian. How can we get the message to them?

@Cointelegraph Right guys we're in the lead, lets call for a pause on all development.

🚨 LATEST: Claude maker Anthropic is calling for a global pause in AI development, warning that models are approaching the ability to self-improve without human intervention.

@HatedMoats This is huge IMO. The market for this in the UK will be big. Infact a know a few people already waiting for it.

🚨 NOVO NEWS Novo Nordisk may be days away from opening the next chapter of the obesity market in Britain: Wegovy Pill. The News According to the Daily Mail, the UK’s MHRA could approve the oral Wegovy pill within days. $NVO's semaglutide obesity drug is already approved in the US and recently launched in the UAE. The key point is that approval wouldn't mean immediate NHS access. NICE would still need to assess cost-effectiveness before any broad NHS rollout. But private access could come much faster. Verdict: Bullish for Novo Not really because this catches up to $LLY overnight, but because it keeps expanding the addressable market, improves patient optionality, and gives Novo a much-needed narrative weapon in the GLP-1 race. Your thoughts?

@steady_profits That would be pretty big for $NVO. I'd heard it was going to be towards the end of the year before this.

The Daily Mail are reporting that the oral Wegovy pill from Novo Nordisk $NVO is set to be approved for use in Britain within days. Nothing has been confirmed yet, but if their sources are correct, this would obviously be fantastic news for the company because it would open up a whole new market and generate some huge revenues. The pill received approval from the United Arab Emirates earlier this week and is already available in the United States, so it would be great if they could launch it in the UK as well, especially as this would be earlier than many were expecting.

@MaximusChud They are quite clearly told to at least cause one incident like this. They are trying to anger the public and they'll keep escalating until they get the reaction they want.

Found multiple views of the same event. They were trying to kill him. Watch how many times they strike him in the head.

The crypto treasury model is a bit backwards when you think about it. They can be great early in a bull market because the high-beta treasury names often front-run the underlying asset. But they can only really raise aggressively when sentiment is hot and the share price is elevated. In bear markets, when the asset is actually cheap, the premium usually disappears and they struggle to accumulate meaningfully. So if the long-term thesis is the asset itself, accumulating the underlying at lower prices is cleaner IMO. For bull market swing trades, though, the treasury names can still be a good shout.

🚨TOM LEE'S BITMINE: now officially $9 Billion UNDERWATER as Ethereum collapses to its lowest level since May 2025.

@investseekers Good news. Should helps once oral Wegovy is released in the UK as well. I think the UK will be such a big market for orals. A lot of overweight people.

$NVO secured a favorable UK court ruling last month that could strengthen the fight against counterfeit obesity and diabetes medicines. The High Court ordered major internet providers including BT, Virgin, and Sky to block websites selling counterfeit and unlicensed semaglutide products. Mishcon de Reya, a leading UK law firm that analyzed the case, highlighted several reasons why the ruling is significant: • It is believed to be the first UK website-blocking injunction targeting counterfeit and unlicensed prescription medicines. • The court confirmed that blocking orders can be used against criminal regulatory offences, not just intellectual property infringement. • The ruling could create a new precedent for pharmaceutical companies seeking to combat illegal online sales of counterfeit medicines. • The court also placed significant weight on the public health risks associated with fake semaglutide products. The decision was issued in May and may become an important tool in the fight against counterfeit GLP-1 medicines. Link to article: mishcon.com/news/website-b… #stocks #investing

I think going forward we should have a selection screen at the start of the movie, and you can choose which actor you want to play what role. So for instance if you like Russel Crowe you'd just select him at the start. Then if people want to choose a transexual in a mans place they can do, and leave the rest of us in peace to enjoy our movies just how we like them.

Iliad (Troy) trailer made by Grok Imagine 1.5, which was just released

@elonmusk Now that's a movie I'd go and watch. Forget The Odyssey.

@BitcoinAIGuy The next 6 months will be a great opportunity to build a bigger $BTC position. Bullish 2027.

Despite bitcoin at $63,000 today. Who is still bullish? I’ll revisit this post in a few years.

@T0N3N3 @BROKENBRITAIN0 Wouldn't surprise me if that's what the figures actually relate to.

@BROKENBRITAIN0 Their feelings were hurt.

🚨BREAKING: Hampshire police have said 11 officers were injured during last nights protest for Henry Nowak in Southampton 🇬🇧 Absolutely zero sympathy for them, if they listened, this would NOT have happened - they didn’t even have the decency to take the knee! I am in no way advocating for this, but I will NOT condemn it either.

This whole $IREN vs $NBIS argument is actually pretty simple. If you literally believe $NBIS will become the next AWS which means: - it becomes a vertically integrated hyperscaler that not only provides next-gen compute GPU clusters but also services the long-tail of customers who just want to plug into an API for open source models and build applications on top of its platform Then yes, you should invest in Nebius, even at this price. I don't believe it has enough differentiation from AWS, GCP, Azure. And I fail to see why customers already locked into those contracts will want to take the humongous effort of migrating their entire tech stack to another vendor when open source models also exist on AWS, GCP, Azure. I also am doubtful a ton of value when migrate to watered-down open source when it's pretty clear all of the value today is largely captured by Claude and then GPT. Keep in mind that if Anthropic / Open AI wanted to distill their models for more efficiency, they could just ... do that. Also just look around in enterprise: - nobody who codes use open-source -> it's all Claude or GPT (Meta / Google all use Claude instead of their internal models) - in enterprise workflows it's really just claude. everywhere. - the solo-pretreneur might use open source but open source does dominate enterprise. Claude /GPT (mostly Claude) does. Why do you think Open AI / Anthropic are starting to hire all of those FDE's? Levels of customers: - layer 1: Hyperscalers - these are the googles, Microsofts, Amazons of the world who just want bare-metal - layer 2: AI Labs like anthropic + open AI, also just mostly want bare metal - layer 3: Jane Street, FireworksAI, TogetherAI, Tik Tok, Palantir -> Some want bare-metal-like performance with a managed Kubernetes/Slurm layer; some want full managed AI cloud primitives; some might just want pure bare-metal. (Here $CRWV > $NBIS > $IREN) - layer 4: larger enterprises from finance / tech companies / real estate like JP Morgan to Salesforce to DR Horton. Salesforce uses all of AWS, GCP, Azure. Specifically, it builds a number of applications on top of AWS Sagemaker. My view is that most of the value will come from layer 1 to layer 3 because the vast majority of the value from layer 4 will be captured by AWS, GCP, Azure. And since this is my view, $NBIS can be reduced to an infrastructure play. Seems reductive, but I largely think this will be true over the next few years. And if you view Neoclouds largely as an infrastructure play, then you're better off investing in $IREN. And because that is my view, no amount of genius mathematician programmer CEO, or mid-tier software engineers will really make a difference will lead to higher-quality infrastructure + faster data center development timelines. I'll also mention that the smartest engineers in the world don't go and say "I want to work for Nebius". They work at these places, in higher to lower talent density (all high): - anthropic -> today, everyone wants to work here - open AI - cursor - databricks - fireworks AI - google - meta - stripe - ramp - decagon - etc. It's actually pretty simple. You can say your a CEO is a genius at programming, you can say you have smart engineers, you can see Yandex is awesome, you can say you have cool subsidiaries, but it doesn't matter when you're engineers really aren't world-class and when that has nothing to do with your core-business: building real-world infrastructure to power AI workloads. What has happened so far is that Nebius has done a good job of plugging in GPU's for Microsoft, even if they haven't come from Vineland. I applaud them for that. At the same time I think it's sus this compute is not coming from Vineland. But that's the easy part of their portfolio. Someone tell me how they will deliver on their backlog when a site like Missouri doesn't even have an interconnect agreement there. Pretty sure this site will have to use BTM to bridge the gap as well. Someone tell me whether paying Data One for colocation and then paying Bloom Energy on top of Data One is a good or bad look. I'll also be candid here about $IREN: - they have had some growing pains - horizon 1 is by far the hardest part of their portfolio because they're improvising as they go - getting GPU's has been a bitch - they still have to prove they can scale AI revenue from a meager 33 million last quarter to billions over the course of the next few quarters - they still have to prove they can deliver and operate liquid cooled datacenters at scale It's not like $IREN is perfect, but because I have an edge in knowing how the Horizon development is going + company roots + ability to source long-lead items + the genuine differentiation it has with its huge portfolio, I see it as more de-risked from an infrastructure standpoint than Nebius. For all of these companies - Nebius, Coreweave, Iren, my view is that they should not be evaluated as software companies, but as infrastructure first companies. It follows that if you don't have an infrastructure first background, then you might win the early game, but you won't win the late game. Good luck.

@Invesquotes Ok and how many people can afford this laptop with 128GB of RAM?

In his most recent Keynote, Jensen Huang said the following about RTX Spark (the new chip for Windows) and $ADBE: "It's also designed agent-friendly, with its MCP server, it can now interact with agents on your laptop." This made me think. If agents live within the hardware/infrastructure and can freely interact with software applications to get things done, doesn't the distribution leverage accrue to hardware manufacturers and $NVDA instead of software companies? I mean, you ask the agent that sits on your laptop to conduct a task, but you don't necessarily ask it to use a given app. The agent simply chooses what's available to get to the desired output. Might have this upside down, so thoughts welcome

Except the only people that would move to the US are the people that have been voting against the BS. The liberals in Europe hate the US. There wasn't much more in play. We're being demographically replaced, and we've been voting against it for decades. If you speak up about it you're targeted. If you protest about it and it's seen as non-peaceful you're locked up. Your ancestors had a new world to go to. We've got no where. The state is against us and the people being shipped in hate us. Leaving this sorry state of a country to move somewhere you're treated better is not cowardly it's sensible. Just like all the whites that left before us.

It's a false equivalence. There was much more in play during the colonial times. Those were Europeans being sent to the new world for various reasons still living under the flag of one of the European nations. It wasn't until the Revolutionary War that any "escape" happened. "In a democracy if the majority of the population are voting lunatics in to power what can you do about it?" If reasonable people leave, only unreasonable people will be left to vote. You're accelerating the problem. And I don't want the people that let it happen coming to my country. They'll come here in vote for the same BS that got them into trouble there.

Where can white British people move to, that is safe? is there anywhere left?