René Schulte

Speedboats vs. Tankers: The SaaS selloff panic is overdone. 🧐 Anthropic's new sector plug-ins for Cowork and the Opus 4.6 release wiped nearly $1 trillion off global software stocks in a single week but I think many investors don't really understand how enterprise software and IT actually works. The world's business runs on tankers like SAP, Microsoft, and a handful of big platforms. M365, Windows, Active Directory, SAP, etc. This stuff is the backbone of basically every enterprise out there. You can't just vibe code a replacement for an ERP system that runs your entire supply chain or a platform that every employee touches every day. These systems have to work 100% deterministic, not only in regulated industries, auditing, financial control, compliance. That stuff isn't going anywhere overnight. That said, I'm not saying there's zero threat. The real risk for SAP and Microsoft isn't replacement, it's commoditization. If AI agents sit on top of these systems and handle most of the user interactions, the platform underneath becomes invisible plumbing. Still essential, but priced like infrastructure, not like premium software. What WILL clearly fade away are the smaller niche SaaS vendors and ISVs. The single-purpose apps, the workflow tools, the point solutions. They'll get replaced by just-in-time AI-generated apps and agents but the big platforms are too deeply embedded, technically, operationally and legally. IMHO the market is panicking without understanding the difference between a Notion competitor and a system that runs your entire workforce or supply chain. The selloff is overdone, but I'd also not get too comfortable if I were a big ISV tanker, the transformation is real and the speedboats are coming to overtake, if they don't change course, just slower than Wall Street thinks. What are your thoughts on this?

Speedboats vs. Tankers: The SaaS selloff panic is overdone. 🧐 Anthropic's new sector plug-ins for Cowork and the Opus 4.6 release wiped nearly $1 trillion off global software stocks in a single week but I think many investors don't really understand how enterprise software and IT actually works. The world's business runs on tankers like SAP, Microsoft, and a handful of big platforms. M365, Windows, Active Directory, SAP, etc. This stuff is the backbone of basically every enterprise out there. You can't just vibe code a replacement for an ERP system that runs your entire supply chain or a platform that every employee touches every day. These systems have to work 100% deterministic, not only in regulated industries, auditing, financial control, compliance. That stuff isn't going anywhere overnight. That said, I'm not saying there's zero threat. The real risk for SAP and Microsoft isn't replacement, it's commoditization. If AI agents sit on top of these systems and handle most of the user interactions, the platform underneath becomes invisible plumbing. Still essential, but priced like infrastructure, not like premium software. What WILL clearly fade away are the smaller niche SaaS vendors and ISVs. The single-purpose apps, the workflow tools, the point solutions. They'll get replaced by just-in-time AI-generated apps and agents but the big platforms are too deeply embedded, technically, operationally and legally. IMHO the market is panicking without understanding the difference between a Notion competitor and a system that runs your entire workforce or supply chain. The selloff is overdone, but I'd also not get too comfortable if I were a big ISV tanker, the transformation is real and the speedboats are coming to overtake, if they don't change course, just slower than Wall Street thinks. What are your thoughts on this?

Ich bin mir inzwischen sicher: KI Agenten werden in 1-2 Jahren alles dominieren. Bedienoberflächen werden obsolet. Software wird obsolet. Hunderttausende Geschäftsmodelle/Unternehmen werden sterben. Wir sehen den Beginn (bzw. das Ende) gerade an den Börsen (SaaS Apocalypse).