donncha

#GGP another +5.1% doing a lot of the lifting in #AIM today which is +0.9%

Aligns with my thesis ...the new equilibrium value for Brent lies north of $80 to $90 to accommodate a long term risk premium... O&G equities are repricing and expanding their multiples to reflect that future...as is UK plc

@MrJJB .big gap in the physical...this will take time to work through even as the geopolitical premium gets priced out

@runningprofits Oil prices have been driven by geopolitical news in the short term, not the real number of gallons of petrol available - this drives medium/long-term prices instead. E.g.: the 15% (ish) intraday drop on March 23rd due to a Trump post...

It’s clear Trump will « declare victory » in the next few days. Even more so as China is getting involved (foreign ministers meeting with Pakistan) - and we all know Trump is afraid of Xi. I expect #brent #WTI $oil to go back down very soon.

A reverse FAFO manoeuvre... n dimensional chess obvs but RoW gets to Find Out the consequences of the FA bit..assuming the FAing is done

#RPI blows a raspberry at the shorters : degens have it +36% on results shorts 3.1% or 6 days to cover The primary catalyst for Raspberry Pi is a significant earnings beat, with FY 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $46.4m coming in 10% ahead of consensus and representing 25% year-on-year growth, significantly outpacing the peer average of 10.5%. This outperformance is a material delta, demonstrating strong execution and resilience in navigating DRAM cost inflation. The positive surprise is amplified by the stock's deeply negative technical positioning; a 47.1% fall from its high and a net cash balance sheet triggers a 'Sentiment Inversion' QCM, suggesting the market was positioned for disappointment. This combination of a strong fundamental beat into a deeply pessimistic technical setup creates a powerful catalyst for a potential re-rating. The high days-to-cover ratio further adds to this potential, creating conditions for a possible short squeeze on the back of the positive news. The synthesis is strongly positive; the company has delivered a clear earnings beat despite known headwinds, directly challenging the prevailing negative market sentiment and creating a compelling catalyst for a significant upward move. research published pre market on runprofits.com link if you want an invite runprofits.com/ace-sign-up/

Bit of relief for #BAG holders 😉 AG Barr rallying on results BUT price hits the skids at the 50MA to 200MA region. A lot of breakouts are failing in this market (they are getting sold-into) . Watch those levels or risk becoming a bigger bag holder The primary catalyst for A.G. Barr is a strong set of full-year financial results, delivering an adjusted profit before tax of £65.8m, up 12.5% and outperforming the peer average growth of approximately 4.7%. This robust performance, driven by a 120 basis point expansion in adjusted operating margins to 14.8%, demonstrates effective cost control and value-led growth in its core brands, a notable achievement in the beverages sector. This strong profitability is triangulated by a 17.7% increase in statutory profit before tax and a healthy 12.7% rise in cash generated from operations, underpinning an 11.0% increase in the total dividend. However, the stock enters this positive update from a position of technical weakness, trading in a structural downtrend significantly below its key 200-day and 50-day moving averages, with the RSI indicating oversold conditions. While the results themselves are strong and beat sector trends, the market may view this as meeting expectations that were already heightened following a positive January trading update. The synthesis suggests that while the fundamental performance is a clear positive and demonstrates operational outperformance, the pre-existing negative technical trend and the fact the news was partially anticipated may temper the immediate upside, leading to a moderately positive interpretation research published each morning pre market on runprofits.com -

#JLP Jubilee Metals is a mixed bag but my analyst gave it a serious negative score - surprised it is holding up tho it has been spanked lately Jubilee Metals Group released its financial results for the six months to December 2025. While the H1 copper production figure of 1,543 tonnes was a miss against the pro-rata full-year target, this operational shortfall and the impact of seasonal rains were largely known and priced in following previous updates. The primary negative delta, therefore, stems from the company reporting a statutory swing to a net loss of $4.7m and the critical decision to place its full-year copper production guidance under review. This formal withdrawal of forward-looking certainty removes a key valuation anchor for the market. Compounded by a high valuation relative to peers and the triggering of a profitability veto, the net impact remains materially negative, overriding secondary positive news regarding the Molefe mine plan implementation.

#gold making a move back above the 8EMA as a bit of mom recovers after the shock: UK GDP at 07:00 these are lagging BUT IF GDP = more slowing THEN stagflation and then yep, go gold!

Shorts keep rising and shorted shares keep falling - new 52W lows in #WIZZ #IBST #FUTR #EZJ #VTY . 12 of the top 20 shorted share as <10 days from 52w lows or ATLs We have become conditioned to V shaped market moves and TACOS : the BTFD to the bid - what if it's different this time? #AUTO #WPP #FLTR

a sign of the times when a catalyst like this gets +6.4% #GGP Greatland Gold This is a composite analysis of two significant mineral resource estimate (MRE) updates from Greatland Gold, which together signal a major expansion of the company's asset base. The primary catalyst is the substantial 150% increase in the Telfer project's gold resource to 8.0Moz, a result of an extensive drilling programme. This upgrade, achieved at a low discovery cost of just $5/oz, dramatically enhances the potential for a multi-decade mining operation and is a significant de-risking event. This is further bolstered by a second, highly positive maiden MRE for the O'Callaghans deposit, defining it as a globally significant tungsten resource with 246Kt of contained WO3. The scale of these resource upgrades significantly exceeds the average of recent updates from peers, justifying the high peer surprise score. The stock's technical posture is transitional, trading above its 200-day average but below its 50-day, suggesting the market is yet to fully price in a new long-term trend despite the deeply positive fundamental news. The combination of a globally significant tungsten discovery alongside a massive expansion of the core gold asset provides a powerful twin-catalyst, underpinning a major re-evaluation of the company's long-term production profile and intrinsic value.

#PAY Paypoint strong catalyst for a name under 4.8% shorts (14.6 days to cover) : sets up for a short squeeze

The latest COT on #commodities report, covering the week to Tuesday, 24 March, highlighted another week of strong buying despite a 2.1% setback in the Bloomberg Commodity Index. The decline was driven primarily by heavy losses in precious and industrial metals, while energy, grains, and softs all posted gains. The overall net long across the 25 major futures contracts tracked rose to 1.8 million contracts - a four-year high - representing a nominal value of USD 175 bn. Of this, USD 80 bn is concentrated in energy, a much reduced USD 50 bn in metals, and USD 27 bn in grains, with the remainder allocated to softs and livestock. Beyond the developments in energy and grains highlighted previously, it is notable that the double-digit slump in gold, silver, and platinum has had a limited negative impact on positioning. There has been little appetite for fresh short selling, suggesting the correction has so far been driven by long liquidation rather than a broader shift in sentiment. More in my update on Monday.

1/6 well we didn't finish the week on the low..so there's that #FTSE100 up +0.5%/week : AND 5% on the 10 year Gilt faded again (big phew) so there's that too tho #AIM spanked, #FTSE250 spanked some bright spots (89 winners this month) : winners and losers , internals, sector rotations BUT shorts are at all time highs and x2 long term averages🧵1/6

If you've been watching oil prices and wondering why Dubai crude is falling while Brent keeps climbing...here's what's actually driving it. Asian refiners are switching their hedges on crude purchases from Dubai to ICE Brent. For decades, Asian buyers hedged against Dubai crude because most of their oil came from the Middle East and Dubai was the regional pricing benchmark. But Dubai just spiked to an all-time high of $169.75/bbl, way above Brent at ~$105. S&P Platts pulled 3 of 5 crude grades from the Dubai benchmark because of Hormuz disruptions, which distorted the price upward. If you're a refiner, why hedge against a $170 benchmark when you can hedge against a $105 one? Same protection, lower cost. ICE Brent is the global benchmark, originating as a North Sea European contract. It now includes US crude (WTI Midland was added to the basket as America became a major exporter), which makes it a natural alternative when Dubai pricing becomes distorted. The hedge migration creates a two way price effect. Money leaving Dubai drains liquidity and pushes the price down. That same money flowing into Brent adds liquidity and bids the price up. This is why the DME Oman contract has been declining while Brent stays firm. Same money, different direction. Some Asian refiners are now asking Saudi Aramco to switch its entire pricing formula from Dubai to Brent. If Aramco moves, the whole structure of how Middle East crude is sold to Asia changes.

@PiQSuite this literally makes the business case for AI , all that CapEx now makes sense

Why is RAM so expensive?

6/6 UK Shorts Sector Weighted short% (so mcap adjusted) is increasing : last big peak like this was pre the April 25 dump - this is bigger #WIZZ is now 16% short #GRG 13% #IBST 12.7% #SMWH 9.4% Total no short positions 586 : long term average is 315: this research is from runprofits.com - if you want to try it out add your email below and you'll get an invite runprofits.com/ace-sign-up/

5/6 Where are the Winners? Only 89 UK names * have made money over the past month 29 are oilers +20-50% #SHEL #BP #GTE #ITH #PANR #PTAL #AET #JSE #SQZ #TGA 11 are brokers #IGG #MCMX #GSF Not much short covering in evidence yet either ..in fact quite the opposite 👇 *(mcap >£50m of a 1600 stock universe inc FTSE all Share)