Rupert Elder

@nickgoff79 We could all use a bit of help with 365 accounts

Just had the annual thing at school where we’re invited in to see their classroom & the work they do. In his English book he was asked to write about how he helps his parents. He’s written that he ‘helps with betfred and bet365’ and by ‘going in goal’. They’re going to call NSPCC

@SBCinfo I reckon you could literally bet more on power slapping than rugby league same day

Some interesting quotes from Graeme on the edges available betting on Rugby. “The mispricings in some of the smaller rugby leagues are almost farcical.” “Three or four days out you’ll see plenty of good opportunities. The trade off is limits.”

@BetGameCouncil Thanks for this - can you provide some links to the new outs please?

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@padspoker @max_silver Also once had 80% rakeback on iPoker around 2009 (10% from "leaderboards" hence why I went to GUKPT Coventry with a Circus Poker badge...)

@padspoker @max_silver I remember a Littlewoods affiliate from around 2003 or 04 offering 30% or something, presumably to get the grinders to play more back when sites thought that was a good thing and the abudance of fish was bottomless

For all the shit Negreanu got he really was a pioneer in the more rake is better school of thought, just ahead of his time

@max_silver think you're meant to drop an affiliate link to an online course at the end of these mate

I ran pretty good here, clearly made a terrible bet and despite winning felt like I lost. Lessons learned, to everyone, be careful fucking around in someone else's house especially in these niche markets, if you can't spot the sucker its usually you

@DustinGouker @BeneFactumGames True for all "out by" markets, including sports team coaches. This one just higher than most others.

@BeneFactumGames My only point is that some amount of the time this is a market about his death, whether you say it’s a market about his death or not.

Forget today's events for a second. For a prediction market titled "Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran?" how often do you think that market would resolve for some reason other than his death?

@EventWavesIO @PlusEVAnalytics I mean it's a total disaster if it is indeed insiders - material non public information effectively being made public to polymarket. Doesn't take a genius these days to hook up poly api + broker api and automate the trades. PMs shouldn't be allowed tickers or need regulating for

@PlusEVAnalytics Investment companies place multi million dollar bets on earnings I think it’s pretty hard to cheat on the actual exchanges because you’d get flagged quickly

Once again, if anyone in the entire world already knows the result and you don't, you're insane to place a bet on it.

@SenseiChanning Christ get the podcast back, he's falling apart

I’m currently in Paris playing day 3 of the European Poker Tour. I’ve won some money already but there is a lot more to be won. Plan has been to play like it’s 2007 and hope they don’t realise.

@_chris_is_tired his shot stopping was alright at Arsenal, distribution tolerable when he didn't make complete blunders. Did he get shitter?

ramsdale isn't good at saving, kicking, in the air or positioning. but apart from that, he does play in goal

@jaimestaples well i'm not american mate!

@ruperte Are you an Arsenal fan Rupert? Say it ain’t so

It’s a terrible day. I’m not playing poker.

@Cecil_jee I hope they file a police report. I hope he gets a multi-year ban. I hope his teammates ostracize him. I hope his mother tells him off. Pathetic.

It’s 2026, why does this issue always continue to rear its ugly head! 😤😮‍💨 The world can be so dark of late football is many of our releases, the powers at be it’s on you to do the right thing here. ✊🏽 #istandwithvini #saynotoracism #standupspeakup #Vini #keepdancing

@BenWilinofsky Oooooh but the rooms are so small! Grow up

Y'all ever stay at a "3-star" hotel in Italy and have a meal that blows the doors off any hotel restaurant in North America?

@MrBeast what do you think about Tonys chocolate?

If you’re going to eat chocolate consider Feastables. More volume we move, more lives we can impact. The projects we’re working on for our farmers are massive and im documenting everything for huge case studies. Frustrating how long progress takes. Must go faster.

Over 1 million children work in child labor on cocoa farms so you can have cheap chocolate. I want to prove that this is a choice and not a necessity with Feastables. Can’t wait for you all to see what we’ve been working on last 18 months. I’m thousands of hours deep on solving this. Won’t quit.

@Tombrownlee True, it also needs to recalculate xG altogether though. I guess people usually know before hand like when City left out Haaland but sometimes unexpected player or gets injured in warm up etc.

Why do player AGS/FGS odds keep moving? It’s one of the most common questions I receive every day – and I completely understand the frustration. You take 2/1.8 only to see it drift to 2/2.2 fifteen minutes later. The reason is simple: player xG is dynamic. The markets are sensitive to any intel, and should not be ignored. Before team news, expected playing time is the dominant factor. Once the starting XI is confirmed, the market needs to re-allocate that xG across ten players. Take Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad in the chart below recently. Vinícius and García’s xG only adjusted meaningfully in the final 15 minutes of the match. Anyone who laid them even ten minutes earlier suddenly found themselves in negative EV territory. For maximum confidence in these markets, the safest approach is to bet in the final minutes before kick-off. Any earlier and you’re always exposed to late price movement.

@MikeMcDonald89 Are we there yet?

Decades later, and even if you didn't play a single hand against them- the poker community sits around like "yup we took 50 million of Andy Beal" or "yup we took 30mm off Guy" I wonder if in 2035 when btc is 15k we'll be sitting around like "yup we took 4 trillion off of Saylor"

@MikeMcDonald89 time to let it go mate

If possible on monkeys- it makes me wonder if this same procedure could be done to two playing cards

they call arsenal set piece fc, christ you should watch the superbowl

@Tombrownlee I don't think his four bullets are inherently wrong, but shops are definitely looser for tracking and affordability. If you took those points and applied them to online it's obviously just even more of a fantasy, but that's the game we play...

The Dunning-Kruger effect is the cognitive bias where people with little skill or knowledge in a subject dramatically overestimate their own competence - because they lack the expertise needed to recognise how much (or little) they know.