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Many people have already stated that they are writing primarily for LLMs. Now, everyone can write for both LLMs and prediction markets.
Humans are particularly bad at intuiting probabilities, and the institutions we’ve built reward everything except accuracy. We consistently overweight confidence, popularity, and aesthetics over ground truth, leading to a world where the loudest voices are often the least accurate. This is one of the root causes of the recent vibe shift.
Changing what we value requires changing what we measure.
This is why we built claim markets: the global leaderboard for all public claims. Claim markets translate what a person says across the internet into prediction market positions. We’ve kicked things off by tracking 63 people across 7 domains, and anyone can add additional people to track.
There has been very little innovation in prediction markets, particularly in novel primitives and form factors. All solutions thus far are active, requiring users to submit trades and seek out information. Claim markets are the first passive solution, embedding context from anywhere on the internet into a prediction market position, and unifying it into a global leaderboard.
Claim markets unlock questions that were previously impossible to answer. With sufficient data, they become an engine for discovering who has frontier context and analysis in a given domain. Some questions and areas of research I’m excited to explore include:
- Expanding tracking beyond individuals to news outlets, blogs, and institutions. How predictive is Citrini, and which underrated, undiscovered blogs are consistent sources of signal?
- With a sufficient number of tracked figures and data, we can start to answer questions like "when Nate Silver and Tyler Cowen disagree on US economic policy, who's right more often?" or "which combination of pundits gives the best signal on tech policy?"
- Which public figure’s claims actually move markets?
Prediction markets are an extraordinarily powerful tool to elicit information through finance. When utilized correctly, prediction markets create positive-sum outcomes by redefining incentives and enabling better coordination.
Vistadex@Vistadex
Introducing claim markets Claim markets translate what people say into prediction market positions in real-time. Track the performance of claims made by Nate Silver, Stephen A. Smith, Vitalik Buterin, and others.
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