Ryan Koh

Am researching for my next article on bitcoin vs other cryptos and found myself rereading @jlppfeffer's 2017 paper titled "An (Institutional) Investor’s Take on Cryptoassets" over and over again. I would argue this is the one of the most complete papers that reasons through why Bitcoin is superior for value accrual, and why other utility (gambling) protocols are not compelling as investments. In short, if you are a long-term investor, store-of-value functionality is arguably the most valuable aspect, and Bitcoin is the only cryptoasset that is successfully optimized for store-of-value. Every other cryptocurrency is utility at best, and gambling at worst. Just like physical utilities in real life (e.g. copper, oil), they are not optimal for storing value. This is excluding all the pump & dump schemes from new utility protocols that emerge almost everyday which stems from a misaligned investment time horizon between capital allocators (VCs or insiders who just want to cash out as much and as early as possible), builders (who may want to cash out quickly or may want to genuinely build something useful) and retail (the general public that are essentially gambling to try and get rich).

@rywiggs Yeah it’ll depend on the industry, like you said tech&startups probably have this as their requirements already in some form. The larger orgs will take forever due to security concerns and good ol’ redtape.

@ryankohkj Less than a decade? By the end of this decade! (Or sooner) I likely wouldn’t hire someone today that isn’t past level 1 LLM competency (ie doing more than just searching/rewriting docs)

In less than a decade we'll likely see AI capabilities being a job requirement much like how Microsoft Suite of tools (Word, Excel, Powerpoint etc) became the norm for almost all white collar workers.

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@ctindale @LukeGromen You know you are on point when the FT tries to attack you

Yours truly causing “frisson” in the White House

Great read. The crypto example is perfect (not ashamed to admit I was one of those who joined the casino many years ago as a recent grad). Fortunately at some point I sat down and properly studied money. And once you study the current and historical monetary systems you realize that the fiat system is not sustainable. Unlimited printing leads to all the symptoms explained in the article. Fiat systems eventually fail. Eventually you'll see more incidents like the recent Iranian currency collapse. Gemini says that over 600 out of roughly 775 fiat currencies have collapsed (~87% failure rate). @grok can help check this. Unfortunately I do not have a prescription at large for the existing financial system. I do not believe any systemic changes can be implemented before any major failures simply because there are too many huge moving parts tied together (pension funds, social security, USD as the global reserve asset etc.) Something big will break one day. For individuals, focus on your craft, create value for society (not extract), and save in hard money (gold, bitcoin) or invest in productive assets. Good luck out there.

“But as Bitcoin matures, its volatility should decline as adoption increases and markets deepen” Ignore anyone who says this

Nic makes a long argument built on stacking hypotheticals, inflated timelines, and a convenient conflation of theoretical possibility with actionable risk. Yes, Shor exists. Yes, ECC is not information-theoretically secure. None of that is news, and none of it implies urgency. What's missing is any credible path from today's lab demos and VC pitch decks to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer that can: A. exist, B. remain secret, C. scale reliably, and D. be economically deployed against Bitcoin before mitigations are available. Hand-waving about "nonlinearities" and "it could appear suddenly" is not an argument it's just FUD You treat Bitcoin upgrades as uniquely impossible while quietly assuming that every other system upgrade flawlessly, instantly, and without coordination risk. That's utterly backwards. Bitcoin's conservatism is a feature precisely because cryptography failures are asymmetric and irreversible. Rushing into immature post-quantum schemes with massive bandwidth costs and unproven assumptions is far more dangerous than waiting for a real threat signal. The confiscation narrative is especially telling: it assumes Bitcoin must pre-commit to violating its own core invariants based on speculative future hardware. pre-emptive panic dressed up as responsibility is not prudence. No quantum computer has factored a number larger than 21 without using tricks for over two decades. Bitcoin doesn't ignore quantum risk. it simply refuses to cargo-cult solutions to a problem that, today, exists mainly in blog posts, grant applications, and VC decks.

@ryolu_ Excited to play with this. Have always struggled with UI when executing purely through the chat/agent interface.

we broke software into “design” and “engineering” and trapped ourselves in frames and specs. Cursor’s new visual editor lets you play with ideas and designs in code, live. no more hand-offs, just click, chat, tweak the tiniest detail, in the actual thing you will ship.

@ctindale Which engineering discipline did you major in Craig? Your article makes me miss my oil and gas days. Really puts into perspective how much soft power China holds now after decades of work.

@saifedean @thefiatstandard Careful Saifedean they might take you seriously lol

As explained in @TheFiatStandard, there is no inflation if you replace your steak with a soy burger👍

@real_vijay @tferriss So basically they are like any other altcoins. The incentives are heavily skewed towards the creators/major stakeholders.

@tferriss These privacy coins are centralized, have massive gini coefficients (small group of bag holders trying to create narratives to dump them on the public) and are fundamentally flawed because, while offering some benefits on privacy, cannot properly be audited.

Over the next 1-3 years, are you bearish or bullish on privacy coins (e.g., Zcash) and why? What's your % conviction? I'm most interested in the reasons outside of technical / chart analysis (quantum insurance = pro, regulatory risk = con, etc.).

@compliantvc Loving these posts they’re funny but at the same time sad because they’re so true. Keep them coming

Met a rich entrepreneur who makes an eye-popping €73k a year He's considered "ultra-wealthy" here in the EU and pays a 83% marginal tax rate I asked if he's bothered by the high taxes His answer surprised me "Not at all! My taxes are simply an investment in the overall community - I reap 10x the benefits that I pay. Besides, I get to keep more than enough to still live a life of luxury." This is why I love building in Europe. The 1% actually embrace taxes and know the importance of regulation

@real_vijay @PeterMallouk And way to cherry pick data. Try zooming out and check if that changes anything.

@PeterMallouk Bitcoin is *becoming* money which is precisely why it's been the best asymmetric trade for over a decade. Gold is great too but lacks the asymmetry and also has fundamental disadvantages vs Bitcoin - especially in regards to transmitability, divisibility, and assayability.

Gold is money and bitcoin is speculation. Big difference.

Any Sumo fans completely amazed by Aonishiki's insane win against Kotozakura and completely outmanouvering Hosh? What a basho.

When people say they’re buying the dip show them this

@OfficialLoganK Wen

Gemini

I've been saying all year there is no fundamental reason for NAV to trade above 1 in these Treasury companies. It's all market sentiment and it could go below 1. Some have now gone significantly below 1 and this will cause shareholder pressure to sell assets (BTC) to purchase shares (under the threat of lawsuits). Another idea would be for stronger treasuries such as MSTR to issue common not to buy BTC but to buy other treasuries trading as much deeper discounts to NAV. This will consolidate the space and lower the risk of treasuries becoming forced sellers of BTC.

The current pullback in bitcoin price has caused concern for many newer hodlers. Don’t worry, this is part of the journey, and a moment where you should, and likely will, go deeper on the work (if you don’t just cut and run). Every bull-run experiences these sorts of pullbacks - we normally see multiple 30%+ drops in a bull, fueled by fear that it might be over. Right now we are down 25% from the all time high, so not even a standard bull market drawdown. So long as you don’t have to sell, it’s fine, we know where this is going long term. But there is a reason why this is a good thing…. The incoming new dollars that took us to the 126k high are still coming: from nation states, sovereign wealth funds, endowments, pensions, bitcoin treasury companies and the ETFs. This is a wall of money, and every day we stay down here means 25% more is being stashed away by longer term holders than would have been if we had stayed at 126k. The longer we are down here, the bigger the reflexive move higher when all supply is drained. You know what you are holding: Step away from X, and enjoy your Sunday 🧡🙏🏼

@daniel_nguyenx launched, marketing next

Launch your startup.

BTC's drop to $100k is just to shake off the paper hands. Keep stacking.