Scott Ballard

He could do both. Pro golf on Thursday and Friday, and then YouTube on the weekends.

@conorsen Justine was a great moment

Joe’s posts on AI likely shifting the media landscape made me think about when social media started changing things — the two events that came to mind were Has Justine Landed Yet (late 2013) and Ferguson (August 2014) but maybe there are earlier ones I’m not thinking of.

@SenThomTillis Not a surprise to anyone

The careless decision to reduce our force posture in Europe, along with moves by Pete Hegseth and his political henchmen to force out some of our finest general officers is amateur hour at best and deadly at worst. Hegseth continues to surprise and disrespect our greatest allies and some of our best military professionals with impulsive decisions not grounded in reality or good judgment. If the rumors are true that Hegseth is trying to sideline General Chris Donahue, one of our nation’s finest warfighters, by downgrading U.S. Army Europe-Africa to a 3-star command, he is taking another step down a dangerous path. A step that is not in the best interests of our nation or our servicemembers. General Donahue has dedicated his entire career to upholding the high standards and warrior ethos that Hegseth claims he is restoring to our ranks. Gen. Donahue has led Soldiers at all levels in Airborne (including Ft. Bragg’s 82nd) and Mechanized units, the 75th Ranger Regiment, and our most prestigious special operation units. He deployed over 20 times in support of Iraqi Freedom, Enduring Freedom, New Dawn, Inherent Resolve, Atlantic Resolve, Freedom’s Sentinel, European Assure, Deter and Reinforce, and in support of the Sudan crisis. Hegseth would do well to surround himself with more patriots like General Donahue and to get his henchmen, who are not qualified to carry Donahue's bag, out of the Pentagon. Keep your word, Mr. Secretary: choose meritocracy over your mediocre yes-men. notus.org/defense/pentag…

@CinemaTweets1 Really really good

The Sheep Detectives released about a week ago & in that week, this film has received nothing but critical acclaim. A 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. A 3.8 on Letterboxd. I have to admit, this wasn’t on my radar, but all the positive buzz is making me curious. This looks super fun.

@blondesnmoney @mbwheats My biggest failure has always been remaining conscious

@blondesnmoney I'll need to catch-up later on the earnings call from the gents at American

@conorsen It's so wild because my dad used to say it all the time as a umph statement - "every last cotton picking thing on this car is breaking".

Can’t think of any time I’ve ever read “cotton-picking” and thought “Good word choice.” Even if I were in the cotton industry I’d probably find a different term.

@blondesnmoney @JochemAAIG Great time for them to utilize the buyback

@JochemAAIG Winter storms dinked results, came in $1.19 vs $1.53. Huge overreaction in my opinion for a 30 cent miss.

Kinda nuts how I posted a Hynix $DRAM arb trade yesterday, and 80% of the comments were "Hynix is finished" instead of acknowledging it was an arb trade which leads me to believe people are so angry they missed the boat it might just keep going

@MarchMadnessMBB Fucking awful

A look at the new bracket 👀

@RampCapitalLLC I'm just lucky that way

Stop complaining about the stock market bubble and do your part to help inflate it. Just don’t be the last one in…

@blondesnmoney Sounds like I should be ready to buy more IGIC if algos sell after missing consensus.

$IGIC and $HRTG report earnings this week. For $IGIC I am estimating $0.30 - $0.50 vs the $0.71 consensus estimate. IGI is a specialist underwriter and has exposure to political violence, energy, and reinsurance in the Middle East, and I think it is unlikely they were able to entirely dodge the impact of the war (the consensus estimate has been unchanged the entire year, which doesn't make sense). While the impact of the war will dampen Q1 results, I think recent events may represent a long-term tailwind for IGI. Western Businesses are clamoring for political violence coverage, and rates are through the roof. Should the war come to a conclusion without disarmament, I think these rates are likely to remain high for the next couple of years, providing a massive tailwind for specialist underwriters such as IGI who have ample excess capital and are able to price this risk appropriately. IGI paid a large special dividend in the quarter ($1.15), but given their excess capital position I think they can balance underwriting new business at highly attractive rates while actively returning capital. In Q4 the company repurchased 345,000 shares, for Q1 I am expecting slightly higher, 360,000 - 450,000 shares. Historically, IGI has capitalized on market dislocation to expand, and in my opinion, more important than the Q1 EPS figure is their commentary on the call and whether they see an opportunity to grow. For $HRTG, I think the $1.53 consensus estimate is well within reach. HRTG's closely comparable peers, such as $UVE have reported excellent numbers, and I think HRTG is unlikely to diverge. What I like about HRTG is its national reach and significant geographic diversification. Many of its peers, such as $AII and $KINS, have flagged national growth opportunities, but $HRTG already underwrites in geographies where conditions have significantly improved, such as CA and NY (FL is less than 50% of total premium). The company had to pull back significantly in 2022 as it neared bankruptcy, but is now able to use its heavily improved balance sheet to reclaim market share (much easier than expansion), making it, in my opinion, one of the only remaining insurance growth ideas for 2026. HRTG currently trades around 6x earnings (heavily weather dependent, perhaps < 5x without hurricanes), at the bottom of the peer group, but I'm hopeful that slow and steady progress, continual share repurchases, and a rosy outlook for 2026 may be what finally pushes the company above $30 a share.

@conorsen I don't understand how the name on the bottom left got into the race

People who have never lived in California don’t realize what a pain voting in California is — so many candidates, all of the stupid referendums, and I guess if you google everything you can learn about each one but who has time for all that.

@conorsen This is interesting given the lack of corporate presence in Louisville. I expected a relatively low cap on the wealth of anyone moving here.

This is a subset of the affordability debate but I think there are a fair number of youngish Americans with $200-250k household incomes who feel like that should afford a nicer lifestyle than it actually can in top 10 metros (in part because retirees still have the good houses).

@craighorlbeck That special is this greatest ever

DRAFT DAY

@ericcrawford This just makes no sense given he was secured at least until the end of next season and funds are needed elsewhere.

The Louisville athletics board has approved a contract extension for football coach Jeff Brohm through 2033, worth $64.6 million plus incentives.

@blondesnmoney Cluseau you piss me off sometimes

@espn @wemby @spurs Are we highlighting his source of power?

DP👽Y WEMBY Victor Wembanyama is the first-ever UNANIMOUS Defensive Player of the Year 🏆 @wemby | @spurs

@MarcWeinbergWX It was very neat to watch the show on TV and then hear the thunder on a considerable delay near Holy Cross.

Did you notice you could hear the fireworks at your home that is far from Downtown last night? Here's why that happened this year...wdrb.news/3QmXpDa

@blondesnmoney @yenoms Schwab says I have to call a broker to initiate an opening trade 😞

@yenoms Friends in high places

As the S&P hits fresh highs, a bit of global value goes a long way in diversifying your portfolio. Japanese healthcare at 6x earnings, a European logistics firm with a hidden bank, and a net-net at 7x earnings with a 100% payout ratio. Here's what I've been buying. open.substack.com/pub/thechiefin…

@MarcWeinbergWX My eyes agree

I was at my house today looking out the window and the amount of tree pollen blowing around was obscene. It is outrageous right now.