Samir Guidi
2.8K posts

Samir Guidi
@samirguidi
libero pensatore, economista, sarcastico osservatore, pifferaio ermetico. Cuoco per necessità e passione. #energy #politics #trading #weather



Diesel in Europe is now US$205/bbl. Like jet, it needs to demand destruct, just less violently. Ceteris paribus, roughly 3–6% of EU27+UK consumption has to go into May or June. Exact timing depends on flows. The difference vs jet is buffers. Inventories, refinery flexibility, and SPRs may absorb part of the shock. That slows the adjustment, it does not remove it. Keep in mind, the EU27+UK import roughly 1mbpd of diesel out of 4.5mbpd consumption. Europe is structurally short diesel and long gasoline, a legacy of 25 years of dieselisation. Time will tell. If you need a new car this month, perhaps go for petrol, not diesel 😆























