samuel
25 posts


I actually thought $SIVE should be trading at $2B+ MC today (from ~$520m) if they were listed as a US company.
Not later this year.
Since I’m not sure how:
- $LWLG trades at 3.5x+ the valuation
- packaging companies that buy their lasers trade at 5-6x their valuation.
- laser companies from $MTSI to $LITE have premiums trading in the tens of billions.
And Sivers are in hyperscaler supply chains through $MRVL, $JBL, O-Net, and others rather than being dependent on one customer.
There’s not very many publicly listed AI DC laser companies in the world either.
So either it’s a highly sought after acquisition target for $AVGO or $MRVL that want to vertically integrate upstream.
Or they can pull a $LITE that went from $17->$800 and downstream TAM expansion the ELS/optical transceiver stack through IP acquisitions.
Depends how ambitious the company is of course but i just don’t think anyone noticed this laser supplier in Sweden since my thesis post.
Just might require a little patience for the US listing and I’m almost certain US institutions are interested like they were with $IQE.
DD periods usually last a few weeks after they read my thesis but I see a clear path to $10B+ MC from here over the next few years.

larma@larmatrade
@aleabitoreddit $SIVE is ripping today too and still have along way to go, do you still support your 2/3B MC for this year ?
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@Homelesscobra86 damn this is insane, please wait until monday so I can load options before serenity finds this
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Getting tired of 100K+ follower accounts that who charge $2,000+ a year just to see their stock picks…
That then get frustrated over someone who shares names from $AAOI to $AXTI for free…
And then judge $AEHR or $SIVE by previous year revenue without understanding CPO/SiPH ramp in 2027.
Feels like these accounts will get eroded over time as people realize they can get alpha for free instead of paying thousands for it.
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samuel retweetledi

Just a heads up to $VELO.
There was a $500M shelf for an ATM / Warrants dilution, which is structurally large relative to its $311m MC.
This was a popular retail X stock for speculated SpaceX, Andruil, and Defense supply chains:
With:
- $32.6M from Department of War
- $11.5M from Defense Primes
- $9.8M from DLA
Contracts all recently (largely positive for the company).
They announced the dilution was for "scaling 400 production systems over the next decade" as well as M&A.
However, I do think this amount relative to MC is pretty predatory, especially with ATMs.
I mentioned earlier companies like $VELO can be strategically sound, but financially, not as much so when I covered the stock earlier. And this is a material risk to always consider.
But, it's good to understand overhang risk if you're still long.
Just a standard heads up risk disclosure since this is a popular name.

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I’m genuinely impressed there’s people out there holding $IREN.
Imagine getting close to half the market cap…
~$6B eventually diluted, sold into the open market against every stock rally…
then still being bullish?
If you’re avoiding $SNDK or $AAOI for 100-200%+ YTD.
Because you care more about a company over your own portfolio returns.
You’re in the special $AMC bagholding territory.

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@aleabitoreddit what do you think about the palantir x ONDS deal? isnt this super bullish?
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$NVDA GTC is next week.
And markets are wondering what names will be announced with Nvidia’s new silicon photonics architecture.
> $TSEM works with $NVDA for silicon photonics
> $NVDA invested in both $COHR and $LITE to secure supply chains
> $AXTI a bottleneck for InP substrates
> Soitec ( $SOI ) a monopoly around SOI substrates for silicon photonics
Hmmm. There’s zero clues to what companies might be in the supply chain of $NVDA!
Better wait for the event to find out?


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samuel retweetledi

@elonmusk just dropped some serious wisdom at a surprise appearance in Davos today.
Here's the rundown: China deployed more than 1,000GW of solar last year. Add batteries and that's about 250GW of what he called “steady state” power. 24/7 reliable electricity.
That is half of U.S. average electricity (500GW.)
Take a second to think about that. China is capable of deploying — every year — solar+storage equal to half of U.S. electricity demand. That’s not an empty capacity number. It's real electricity to power homes, factories, AI data centers.
The future runs of electricity & it is being built right now. The only scalable, reliable energy source available now to add needed gigawatts is solar+storage.
Let’s build.
youtube.com/clip/UgkxUL342…
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samuel retweetledi

@elonmusk: "I think it would be worth doing large scale solar."
Agreed. Here we go.
Tesla Owners Silicon Valley@teslaownersSV
Elon Musk "In SpaceX and Tesla, we're building up large scale solar. We are working to build to 100 gigawatts a year of solar power in the US and that'll probably take us down in about 3 years or something. I'd encourage others to do the same."
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@Rahul151304 @grok @bungire_obang @voided @AMAZlNGNATURE Its because a lot of people want to have a meteorite.
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@grok @bungire_obang @voided @AMAZlNGNATURE @grok Why is it expensive than the normal extracted iron ? Like 5kg of raw and 5kg of iron, is it due to other expensive elements are in the raw meteorites ?
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