sankaman

@vtchakarova There is no way they didn't have a plan for this. In fact they got handled a better hand than their worst case scenario - which was blocked strait + no hostilities towards neighbors.

There is no US plan for the Strait of Hormuz because they didn’t factor in that Iran would have gone all in by closing it and annihilating energy infrastructure in the Gulf region. Not having the plan is the plan. That’s when the brutal law of unintended consequences kicks in.

@amit_segal כן ברור. יותר משמעותי לישראל מאשר המשא ומתן בפאקיסטאן

האם לגיטימי להודות שאני במתח מהבחירות לפרלמנט ההונגרי?

@vtchakarova This guy is probably the most notorious anti IL ex french diplomat on record, and that's saying something... Would take everything he says about the situation with a grain of coarse salt

This 👇

@zerohedge China frantically replacing its USTs

Turkey has sold 6 years worth of accumulated gold in 3 weeks: Erdogan has dumped a shocking 120 tons of gold (almost $20BN) since the war started, and 70 tons last week. It's amazing gold is not much lower, and begs the question: who is buying all the gold Turkey is selling?

@aman0fpeace @AJENews why do you hate Israel?

BREAKING: Iran accuses Israel of desalination plant strike in Kuwait 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/p0huh8?update=…

@AJABreaking gentle reminder that IRGC was supposed to sink the Lincoln aircraft carrier...

عاجل | وكالة تسنيم عن مصدر عسكري إيراني: أكثر من مليون مقاتل تم تجهيزهم للمعركة البرية مع الولايات المتحدة

@Ksidiii I would argue that it's because the real problem comes from political/policy decisions which are erroneous, as opposed to the underlying issue being fatal. (covid was closing down economies, GFC was not bailing out Lehmann etc...)

I think there’s a big misconception when it comes to large market moves. Many people take a theoretical view that “the market prices everything in.” But if you look at history, you’ll see that some of the largest market declines have come well after the catalyst was already widely known. 1.COVID-19: It’s called COVID-19 because it was identified in 2019. Yet markets didn’t fully digest the ramifications until mid-March, when economies were already shutting down. 2.GFC: Before the major collapse in Q3 and Q4 of 2008, it was already known in 2007 that cracks were forming. There were multiple warnings pointing to a potential mortgage crisis. Credit began to slowly reprice, and then it all unraveled at once. 3.Volmageddon: Prior to the February 2018 blowout, it was widely known among derivatives traders that these ETPs could fail. Portfolio managers were openly arguing with issuers at major derivatives conferences. 4.“Liberation Day”: Weeks before Trump announced tariffs, the market was aware he had a plan in place. In fact, markets initially rallied a few percent within seconds of the announcement, then went on to decline 20%. My point is that there’s a cognitive bias that leads people to believe the market is all-knowing, smarter than everyone, and always prices everything in. But during major volatility events, it’s often only at the very end that the market fully accepts the fear. This is likely because humans naturally are optimistic creatures. It’s embedded into our DNA.

@GoogleResearch turboquant was my nickname back on the trading floor (i lost us $263b annualized)

@vtchakarova What's your assessment in terms of the amount of leverage Does French currently hold against Israel?

France has called on Israel to avoid sending troops into southern Lebanon, warning of serious humanitarian consequences. FM Barrot said France was urging Israel “to refrain from such ground operations, which would have major humanitarian consequences and would exacerbate the country’s already dire situation”.

@AuroraIntel aaaaannd here goes another launcher

Well I jinxed it

@manniefabian please hide the face of the volunteer in the second picture. This is a direct request from him

Medics are responding to reports of several rocket impacts in the northern border city of Kiryat Shmona. Sirens had sounded in the city amid the Hezbollah attack, the fifth within an hour.

@admcollingwood You'd think the French would send the CDG to protect their strategic assets as opposed to running rounds in the icy waters

Important: a big chunk of Qatari gas output and LNG train expansion was designed to feed European demand. There was a big investment programme to increase LNG supply by more than 50% by 2027. Not coincidentally, this was the date that Europe was going to ban completely the purchase of Russian gas. In other words, the Iranians are smashing Europe's entire energy plan, such as it was. The big question now is will Putin stick to form and provide Europe with the energy it needs to stave off economic disaster, or will he finally twist the knife by banning sales to Europe in anticipation of the EU ban in 2027? This is the gamble European leaders are now making. Relying on the Russians to play nice after everything. Breathtaking incompetence.

@ErikSTownsend @anasalhajji How could you amplify such disastrous and apocaplyptic arguments? Firstly, it would only be valid for the gulf countries and secondly it just emboldens a desperate regime to create as much damage as possible.

Ok folks, here is a "dumbed down" version of Anas analysis intended to help those who are still struggling with "But Iran only gets 3% of its water from desalination". The common perception is that Israel has nuclear weapons and therefore has a "nuclear option" to strike Iran in a way that Iran could never match because they don't have nuclear weapons like Israel does to strike back with. Anas' contention is that Iran DOES in effect have a nuclear-scale option because it could strike the desalination plants of its enemies including both Israel and other gulf states such as Saudi Arabia which are heavily dependent on desalination for their drinking water, and where massive human suffering could result from the loss of those desalination facilities. Anas argues that Iran striking its enemies' desalination plants would be on par with a nuclear weapons strike in terms of the amount of human suffering and death it could cause to innocent civilians. The fact that Iran itself only relies on desalination for 3% of its OWN water supply is only relevant to this analysis in the sense that Iran doesn't share this particular vulnerability with its enemies. If you STILL don't get it and feel inclined keep posting "Iran only relies on desalination for 3% of its water", fine, go ahead. The rest of us are having a different conversation than the one you think you're making a point in, but that's how X works sometimes.

DO NOT MISS THIS IMPORTANT SIGNAL! Iran now directly threatening to attack the DESALINATION facilities of Israel and other other gulf states allied with USA. This is EXACTLY the scenario that @anasalhajji emphasized would have the same dire consequences as a NUCLEAR strike on @Macrovoices ep. 523.

@C_Barraud For anyone not following this is obviously Trump getting back at Europeans

🇪🇺 *#EUROPE GAS PRICES JUMP 27% AFTER DAMAGE TO QATAR LNG PLANT - BBG

@MofaQatar_EN At this pace you’re not exactly going to stop any attacks

Statement | Qatar Condemns, Denounces Blatant Iranian Attack on Ras Laffan Industrial City Doha | March 18, 2026 The State of Qatar expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Iranian attack targeting Ras Laffan Industrial City, which caused fires resulting in significant damage to the facility. It describes the attack as a dangerous escalation, a flagrant violation of state sovereignty, and a direct threat to its national security and regional stability. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirms that despite Qatar's policy of distancing itself from this war since its outset and its commitment to avoiding any escalation, the Iranian side continues to target it and neighboring countries in an irresponsible approach that undermines regional security and threatens international peace. The ministry stresses that Qatar has repeatedly called for the need to refrain from targeting civilian and energy facilities, including within the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in order to preserve the resources of the region's peoples and safeguard international peace and security. However, the Iranian side continues its escalatory policies that are pushing the region toward the brink and drawing countries not party to this crisis into the conflict zone. The ministry affirms that this attack constitutes a violation of UN Security Council Resolution No. (2817), renewing its call on the Council to assume its responsibilities in maintaining international peace and security and to take the necessary measures to stop these serious violations and deter their perpetrators. The ministry also reiterates that the State of Qatar reserves its right to respond in accordance with Article (51) of the United Nations Charter and the right to self-defense as guaranteed by international law, stressing that it will not hesitate to take all necessary measures to protect its sovereignty, security, and the safety of its citizens and residents. #MOFAQatar

@zriboua The whole Israel Boogeyman doesn't have legs... You saw all the GCC align immediately with US. They are driving the new balance in the region and US knows this. Iran probably recognizes also and therefore engages agressively...

Thank you. There are people who are making the case for the war or against it, my humble task is to show why it’s happening, who it’s hurting, how it’s going even if it’s against the "market" etc, which is why I make predictions & said it was going to happen since January. And yes I’m very pro-America and I don’t think Israel is the boogeyman because I see different dynamics in the Middle East etc and I can see how if this works out U.S. can actually retreat militarily from the Middle East and delegate to its partners…

Qatar isn't happy with Israel (and the US?). Doha is surely trying to minimize blowback from Iran: both countries share the same gasfield, which the Iranians call "South Pars" and the Qataris call "North Field"

@IntCyberDigest @LobstahRollah not true - if you remove the hormuz pressure on the global economy the war ends very quickly. The truth is that for all these countries, it's cheaper to handle via financial and SPR intervention as opposed to military methods

@LobstahRollah Iran is one big fortress made out of mountains. There will be no end to this war.

UPDATE ON THE HORMUZ COALITION (Mon, March 16): 🇫🇷 France: REJECTED 🇩🇪 Germany: REJECTED 🇮🇹 Italy: REJECTED 🇪🇸 Spain: REJECTED 🇬🇧 UK: REJECTED 🇯🇵 Japan: REJECTED 🇳🇴 Norway: REJECTED 🇨🇦 Canada: REJECTED 🇦🇺 Australia: REJECTED 🇨🇳 China: NO RESPONSE 🇳🇱 Netherlands: NO RESPONSE 🇰🇷 South Korea: NO CONFIRMATION

JUST IN 🔴 An Israeli official told the Jerusalem Post that the majority of Basij leadership was eliminated overnight in the Israeli airstrike.

@zerohedge EUR now the flagship EM currency 😂

Euro Parity Awaits If Oil Shock Persists zerohedge.com/markets/euro-p…