trend spotter

@elerianm Raising interest rates due to a supply imbalance is like cutting your nose off to spite your face. Sure, you could raise interest rates to the point you curve demand, but at what cost? Supply and demand is not inflation…

In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 bps, stating explicitly what a growing number of other central banks are likely to acknowledge in the coming weeks: inflation will remain higher for longer. Other notables include the 8-1 vote and the fact that, at 4.35%, the policy rate has already returned to its 2024 peak. #economy #markets #centralbanks #rba #australia

@801010athlete I have been there, it’s all psychological. One must work on their psychology to break this habit. For me, Mark Douglas was helpful. I had to accept that it is ok to be wrong, when I was wrong I acknowledged it and moved on.

The biggest takeaway from novice investors/traders is that they can’t wait to sell when they have a profit, but won’t sell if they don’t. Selling your winners +5-10% and sitting w losers is not a winning strategy.

@jimcramer @DivesTech Don’t forget MU $100 on earnings next year, and that could be low.

Memory shortage stocks have to go to a higher place. It's very difficult to imagine it, but stocks do gallop to where they should be... WDC SNDK, STX, will be overheated until they get to where they have to go

@elerianm Mohamed, why do people count supply and demand imbalances such as the spike in oil recently as inflation? Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, and the spike in oil is not inflation and shouldn’t be treated as such.

As illustrated by this Bloomberg chart, the price shock emanating from the Middle East War has shifted market expectations toward a "higher-for-longer" rate environment across nearly all systemically important central banks. (The outlier remains the Bank of Japan, which continues to inhabit its own paradigm—though less so recently. However, identifying the changed rate trajectory is merely the opening act of the analysis.) The current situation represents more than a simple price shock; it also involves a "second-round" adverse demand shock. Beyond these immediate economic effects, there is the lingering risk of spillovers into financial instability. All of this underscores the uncertain outlook: central banks will be navigating a series of judgments which, I suspect, will likely (or should) be adjudicated by a single, sobering question: "Which is the least unrecoverable mistake we can make?" The answer to this question is less complicated for single mandate central banks, such as the BoE and ECB, than it is for the dual-mandate Fed. #economy #markets #centralbanks

People can try to justify a value based on cap rate, but if it doesn’t jive with the sold comparables, the cape rate they are using is probably too low. People will do anything to justify the price they are asking, it’s up the the appraiser to tell the truth and be honest. At a fundamental level the appraiser is being paid to tell the truth.

Have you heard of anybody selling residential 4 Plexes based on the cap rate versus sales comparables Only reason I ask is with comparables my four Plex is worth $1.5 million If you use a 5 cap, it’s worth $1.9 million What would you do in this situation?

@nockside1 @jonbrooks If the desire to own a home is great enough you will find a way.

@jonbrooks I make 44k before taxes and rent would be over half my paycheck. I can’t afford a down payment. So I live at home and even though I save most of my income the barrier to entry is too high. To top it off, no woman wants to date a guy still living at home and can’t provide for them

Explain this... 12% of 30 year olds are married & own a home

@Philosophy_Punk @GrahamStephan The old now were once young with no money. It was built up over many decades. If you live long enough it is easy to be wealthy with just modest consistent investing

@GrahamStephan The wealth has been funneled to asset holders, government, and the old. The young are left footing the bill via inflation and lower standard of living.

The most worrying stat of the year: Homebuyers over 70 now outnumber buyers under 35.

@chris_dogee @GrahamStephan Chris, you may want to try unconventional ways to buy a home. Just looking in the mls means your are fighting with everyone else for the right to pay too much. Look off market, talk to people let them know you are looking, estate sales, for sale by owner etc….

@GrahamStephan Graham Im 27 been a beat cop in NJ for 5 years and still cant afford a home in NJ. We are cooked ive been saving this whole time but the salary to house ratio is totally fucked on the verge of just living in a tent in the pine barrens at this point for any sense of freedom

@GrahamSchroeder @GrahamStephan Many are…

@GrahamStephan What happened to people buying condos when they retire?

@GrahamStephan @ThinkAppraiser It’s probably because they are downsizing into a smaller home. Nothing concerning here

@RBReich Since when have outcomes been equal? Equal outcomes is a fairytale

These 2,900 individual billionaires could lose 75% of their wealth and still be richer than 4 billion people. Inequality is eating the whole world alive.

I agree, if Penn state does not hire terry smith the psu football program will be set back two years. If Penn state is a family like they claim, it’s time to start acting like it and hire terry smith. The players want him, he played for penn state, he knows the game, he is loyal to penn state. At the very least give him a one year contract.

Hire my coach @CoachTerryPSU now. Not a decision. He is the 🐐🤩 @PennStateFball 🏈

@RBReich Mr. Reich you know better. That’s because corporate taxes are paid on the companies earnings. I’m sure the CEO’s paid plenty of tax being w2 earners…

What do these corporations have in common? Netflix Ford Tesla T-Mobile Duke Energy DISH Network Metlife Dominion Energy United States Steel In recent years, they all paid their execs more than they paid in taxes. This is what a corporate-rigged system looks like.

Supply and demand. There aren’t a lot of people who can run a large company at a high level, so when you find one you pay them well so you don’t loose them. People get paid millions to hit and catch a ball, because the supply of people who can do it at a high level is limited. Supply and demand is at work…

Amazon announced 14,000 layoffs. Its CEO made over $40M last year. UPS announced 48,000 layoffs. Its CEO made over $24M last year. Intel announced 20,000 layoffs. Its new CEO's pay package is valued at nearly $69M. This is what I mean when I say the system is rigged.

@RBReich Of course, who doesn’t love Santa…. Until people realize he isn’t real…

Across the country, voters support many of Zohran Mamdani's ideas, including: -Increasing taxes on the rich -Universal childcare -Freezing rent -Raising the minimum wage Everything Democrats do must focus on enacting popular policies that help working people. That is the path forward.

@RBReich More class warfare rhetoric from Mr. Reich. Is it truly tax evasion or just using the tax code to avoid taxes in a legal way. The top 50% of taxpayers pay 97% of the taxes. I would say the bottom 50% are even better then the “rich” at avoiding taxes

Remember: The richest 1% evade over $160 billion in taxes every year. That amount would fund SNAP for a year with money to spare. Ask yourself who the real freeloaders are.

@Ronxyz00 Shouldn’t the numbers add up to 100%? Seems like funny math to me…

@801010athlete A shake to 400 seems like what is needed. That should clear the deck and set the stage for a move higher, but I have no idea lol

I have no clue how $TSLA builds out from here but I’m going to just bend over and use Friday low as stop and probably get stopped out. I tried to outthink my stop in 340’s and that didn’t work out so well so now the trading gods will get me back for sitting w it and stop me out😂 1 positive(if this was a normal trading stock) is that my cost is below 50sma now and todays low.

@krassenstein @elonmusk Grok did not say that, everyone put the exact thing into grok and you will see. Brian is not telling the truth!! You would be better off putting him in ignore…

If you are working for xAI then you should be ashamed of yourself for allowing this crap. You are not a “truth seeking” AI. You are promoting blatant falsehoods and lies. Why should I use your product if you get the simplest facts incorrect multiple times? @elonmusk why are you allowing this?

@Factschaser @FunCajun49 They are not massively profitable on their EVs, maybe overall, but not on evs

@FunCajun49 Wrong! Toyota, GM, Ford, Hyundai and Stellantis all make EVs and are massively profitable

Tesla is one of the least efficient automakers: Vehicles produced per employee: Suzuki: 42 GM: 38 Changan: 38 Geely: 30 Hyundai: 28 Toyota 27 Nissan: 26 Ford: 26 Tesla: 13 Expect more $TSLA layoffs. Many are already quitting -- head of Cybertruck program just left.