Colin Murphy

Please feel free to reach out if you have questions. To preemptively answer a common one: Will there be a virtual option? Probably not, though we are exploring the possibility of recording some or all of the presentations and posting them online.

This is an opportunity to advance the discussion in this space beyond the "my model is better than your model" arguments that have dominated in recent years, and help start researchers, like my team at the Biofuel Land Use Change program, developing more effective policy tools.

For any ILUC researchers, enthusiasts, or folks for whom those letters have become the bane of your existence: I cordially invite you to a research conference ITS-Davis is co-hosting with Prof. Aaron Smith of UC Berkeley, May 28-29 at UC Berkeley. its.ucdavis.edu/events/revisit…

We have an exciting postdoc opportunity open to join our team at @ITS-Davis working on new regulatory approaches to indirect land use change (ILUC) assessment. Please circulate this through your networks and reach out if you have any questions! its.ucdavis.edu/about-us/caree…

Similar workshops are being held around the country, in case you're not in our neighborhood. See the link in the invitation to find one in your area. Please share this announcement and I'm happy to answer questions!

Interested in the GREET model for transportation LCA? Have you found the GREET model to be very confusing and tough to work with? We can help with that! ITS-Davis will host a 2-day R&D GREET model training workshop model in Sacramento this November! conta.cc/4lfRBoP

So DOGE-related cuts and early retirements eliminated 550 staff at the National Weather Service, and now the NWS is being granted special permission to hire 450 positions to relieve critical shortages. Such a waste of time and resources.

@lrntex Agree. I was using market power as a shorthand, not precisely aligning with terms of art.

I agree with @scianalysis here, although I don't think there's any evidence of market power in the refining sector - definitely market concentration though.

This otherwise solid article about the CA gas crisis reckoning has an error in its title. "Big Oil" did not get Gavin Newsom to change his tune; Gavin Newsom's desire to President amidst rising concern over CoL issues got Gavin Newsom to change his tune! politico.com/news/2025/08/0…

@moo4isu @MisterCommodity @biofuelslaw Yes, but that's already done (in GREET) for RFS purposes. If I recall, there was a version of GREET released for 45z, but if you've already got a GREET pathway for RFS (or LCFS) it's simple to replicate it in a different version of GREET and present the same verification material

@scianalysis @MisterCommodity @biofuelslaw The ethanol plant is going to need a ci score on all their corn before they will know what the ci score of the ethanol is

In case you missed it: On Friday, the IRS released the inflation-adjusted base values for the #45Z credit for 2025. The base value is now $1.86 for #SAF and $1.06 for other #biofuels. These values are then multiplied by an emissions factor to calculate the final credit value.

@moo4isu @MisterCommodity @biofuelslaw US Treasury issued guidance, it's essentially GREET modeling, ignoring ILUC and offering very generous crediting for soil carbon enhancing activities. I think Trump's team changed it, and removed what little verification was required for soil carbon benefits.

@scianalysis @MisterCommodity @biofuelslaw What are the guidelines to determine the ci score

@moo4isu @MisterCommodity @biofuelslaw The value is set by the CI score of the fuel. The inflation adjustment is just a multiplier for that value.

@MisterCommodity @biofuelslaw How can they give guidance on the inflation adjustment without any guidance on the value

@CarbonAcumen @RinnyTheGopher We haven't had bandwidth to update our models, but I agree that a 5 million credit bank drawdown is unlikely. Also agree that it would probably take a large and lucrative new market other than CA springing into mature fruition in very short order for it to occur

REPEAT Project just completed our rapid analysis of the impacts of the Senate-passed version of the One Big "Beautiful" Bill (#OBBB), which the House is considering now, on the US energy sector and emissions. Still working up full report, but here is a sneak peak... 🧵

I have a new blog up at @ITS_UCDavis: No, Your Gasoline Prices Will Not Rise by 65 cents per gallon in July. I'll give you three guesses to figure out what it's about. its.ucdavis.edu/blog-post/no-y…

@jamesonbrent @lrntex @CAgovernor That's exactly what they're meant to do. We're actually doing a brief report on the topic right now. If you're comfortable sharing either a quote we could drop in somewhere or (even better) some numbers that illustrate it's value to you, it would be helpful.

@scianalysis @lrntex @CAgovernor Thanks for your input, you're clearly much closer to the complexities than me. I just know the LCFS payments for EV charging help our fleet TCO pencil out.

California has always insisted that it is possible to pursue aggressive environmental policy without inflicting economic harm. An impending gasoline shortage and sky-high pump prices will refute this idea. In @TheBTI today I trace the factors leading up to this Icarian moment 🧵

@jamesonbrent @lrntex @CAgovernor These challenges can be fixed by adopting better methodology. Biofuels can't be effectively evaluated on a binary scale, so binary solutions (e.g. "no biofuels in the LCFS") aren't helpful. We know there are some ways that our current approach can be improved, let's start there.

@jamesonbrent @lrntex @CAgovernor IMO, a better option would be to improve the GHG assessment methodologies. CARB continues to rely on out-of-date ILUC analysis, made with a model that has been found to have some issues (to put it mildly). The LCFS doesn't have a consistent approach on additionality.