semaji.eth

957 posts

semaji.eth

semaji.eth

@semajeth

Formerly HFT QT. Used to write at https://t.co/v3Ue5zbXrM. Quant trading, prediction markets, crypto.

Katılım Kasım 2021
662 Takip Edilen2.3K Takipçiler
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
The only relevant part of the post was the on-chain activities. Why exactly it required 5 tweets about Zach's personal life solely for purposes of confirming the dox was never addressed. The dox, of course, is the point: make Zach's identity nice and public. Vermin.
English
0
0
1
104
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
Absolute cunt, you dox someone and then say you will "introduce" yourself and we get "a dude from an Eastern European country". Cannot even bring yourself to name the country. Happy to dox others but wouldn't dream of doxxing yourself, even though you are irrelevant.
Matthew@matthewabides

2/ Disclaimer. If I'm exposing someone, it's only fair to introduce myself first. Especially since @zachxbt tends to dismiss critics by where they're from. I'm just a dude from a small Eastern European country. This is my first post on X - I've only ever been a reader here, including following Zach for over a year. For the last 6 months Zach changed. The paranoia, acting like he's a god, a lot of strange things. That's what got me here. I've never been affiliated with anyone. I just honestly gamble my money on futures.

English
1
0
2
361
Ramil Amirov
Ramil Amirov@mcp0x·
Longs on @binance and @HyperliquidX quietly overpaid $480 million in funding last year on $BTC and $ETH markets alone Almost every major perp exchange copy-pasted BitMEX’s 2017 emergency setting… and "forgot" to touch it for nine straight years Binance carved out an exception for their own token. Here is why🧵
English
7
5
78
11.2K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@itseieio @tecchirp Fairly straightforward: it's slop-for-clicks. Honestly a bit hilarious that the slop denounces you as a vibe coder. A stochastic drive-by shooting.
English
1
0
17
1.7K
nolen
nolen@itseieio·
@tecchirp it’s a mock interview I did to show people what our recruiting process ks like lol. We recorded back in late 2022. I think it’s still up on the Jane Street site? I have no idea what the post i’m quoting is trying to say lol. i worked at JS for a long time and enjoyed it. idk
English
2
0
53
4.1K
nolen
nolen@itseieio·
It's true- Jane Street rejected me for this mock interview even though I had already worked there for 7 years They said I should've used Claude Code. I said it was 2022 and Claude literally didn't exist yet. They said I should have invented CC during the interview Crazy stuff!
Paone@paonx_eth

Jane Street rejected this vibe-coder at $385K/year because he refused to use Claude Code 32-min of vibe coding RIGHT during an interview at a Tier 1 fund you watch the entire process: live coding, pressure questions, the moment they realize his stack doesn't match theirs every Tier-1 fund is now filtering candidates by tool stack. Claude Code is the new compliance Bookmark & Watch tonight

English
32
25
1.5K
293K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@JaredKubin I am not sure there was ever a consensus that adoption and intelligence curves coincided. The models got better: that is clear both from benchmarks and from subjective user experience. The question of whether the capex is justified is totally live, even given the above advances.
English
0
0
0
123
Jared L Kubin
Jared L Kubin@JaredKubin·
Over the last few months, AI adoption + ARR charts have started to look INSANO. Everyone has the same explanation…The models got smarter. Even King Ken did a 180 in 3 months? AI is going to kill finance! “Did you see the Wealth Mgmt Plugin?!” But what if the bigger change is simpler…what if they just got faster? And we are conflating the tWO? Lower latency changes behavior. You ask more. You try more. You iterate more. You stop treating the model like a tool and start treating it like a second brain. That looks like intelligence… But it might mostly be speed? So this raises the uncomfortable question..what if we are spending hundreds of billions on capex for a world where the models get much faster…but not meaningfully smarter? it also means the adoption curve and the intelligence curve may not be the same curve
English
15
3
51
8K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@goldenpants013 Wow. Need to talk to Claude about that and have him help me understand what that is. Bullish for sure though.
English
1
0
3
480
GoldenPants13
GoldenPants13@goldenpants013·
@semajeth We are building this thing where we sell Jordan Spieth contracts and make money every week
English
2
1
45
3.9K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
If one is being honest, there have been zero interesting prediction market primitives introduced over the last 8 months. Not one. People have tried things ranging from cross-margining to leverage to borrowing against positions but then and now, none are resilient vs gap risk.
English
17
0
31
4.3K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@kushal_mungee Suspect it has issues in terms of illiquidity of spot. Broadly speaking, I feel like options require a certain maturity (in the sense of development, not the technical expiration term) in the underlying, and PMs don't have that, at least for now.
English
1
0
3
89
Kushal Mungee
Kushal Mungee@kushal_mungee·
@semajeth Options on prediction markets - let me know your thoughts! Open for early access, DM
English
1
1
2
116
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@0xairtx @ProofMarkets @airtightfish Saw the announcement and looked intriguing: I would need to see concrete details, and trading conditionally (even thinking conditionally) would require a lot of work to onboard retail. But it does prevent a broad class of pickoffs and if nothing else is still a novel attempt.
English
0
0
3
122
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
"Actually, we're building-" respectfully, what were your daily users in Sept 2025 vs May 2026?
English
0
0
0
259
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
Without commenting on the post itself at all, it's just hilarious that the founder of DraftKings, who is now bagging on Kalshi, has a surname that is itself an anagram of Kalshi. Just hard to take him seriously on this when he's one letter movement away from being Matt Kalshi.
Matt Kalish@mattkalish

Idk what people are smoking, there’s not a single exchange product experience for normal people that is remotely close to the delivering the caliber of experience that regulated sportsbooks do. They are 2-3 years of development away (before regulatory touches the product at all)

English
1
0
27
2.8K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@noahzender @buccocapital No-one is saying that early Anthropic employees were morons who stumbled into it by pure chance. You completely misunderstood the post.
English
1
0
28
409
Noah Zender
Noah Zender@noahzender·
@buccocapital I don't believe it's luck. The people who joined earlier had: - The skillset needed - Saw the signs and were willing to take a risk Very rarely does someone end up in the position of building generational wealth by pure chance. They worked for it.
English
13
0
9
3.2K
BuccoCapital Bloke
BuccoCapital Bloke@buccocapital·
I get why the tech outcomes drive some people insane. I’ve joined companies 12 months “too late”, and merely made a good amount of money instead of generational wealth The people who joined before me weren’t any better or smarter. They just got lucky. Just like someone looks at me and thinks I got lucky The pure randomness of it all can either drive you crazy or give you an appreciation for the role of luck. But at the end of the day you are in the driver’s seat. You choose your perspective What I have come to learn is the people who think they alone earned their accomplishments are the most unhappy. The people with gratitude for the role luck played in their success are able to keep striving for more without losing their mind They have come to acknowledge that while they can shape the world around them, and tilt the odds in their favor ever so slightly, ultimately a lot of it is out of their hands
English
66
81
2K
239.3K
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
Many market-esque configurations can be significantly enhanced for the average participant if everyone must justify their actions on a social basis. The speedbump was Hyperliquid's equivalent of nerfing short-stacking. The takers got smoked. But parasites live by the sword...
English
0
0
1
97
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
For the average account, they will never interact with this condition, but their experience would be drastically enhanced, as makers could show 5x the liquidity and tighter spreads (ofc this would lead to perverse incentives where the taker multi-accounts, but the point stands).
English
2
0
0
75
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-n… An interesting article, less in the details than in the abstract lesson. The player was banned from the Hippodrome for constant hit and runs (leaving as soon as you win a little). This is technically allowed, but considered the lowest of poker etiquette.
English
1
0
3
517
semaji.eth
semaji.eth@semajeth·
@AgustinLebron3 @cryptotriv @flowidealism Realistically, these people did not acquire this viewpoint from philosophical reflection and then commit to it. Their personality deficits, solipsism, and general lack of care for others outside the cogito committed them to it: this lazy pseudo-philosophy was called in at the end
English
0
0
1
63
Agustin Lebron
Agustin Lebron@AgustinLebron3·
@cryptotriv I refuse to accept this. And my experience is that it's not true. Lots of kids (teenagers, etc) are actually desperate for real honest interaction with adults instead of the cynical co-opted version they see in their teachers and the school system, for example. @flowidealism
English
5
0
49
907
Agustin Lebron
Agustin Lebron@AgustinLebron3·
Fascinating that it doesn't seem to occur to these post-economic people to pass on their knowledge and experience. Teach, coach, mentor some bright kids, etc. The fact it's seen as low status, when it even gets considered, says a lot about the solipsistic culture they're in.
Deedy@deedydas

The vibes in SF feel pretty frenetic right now. The divide in outcomes is the worst I've ever seen. Over the last 5yrs, a group of ~10k people - employees at Anthropic, OpenAI, xAI, Nvidia, Meta TBD, founders - have hit retirement wealth of well above $20M (back of the envelope AI estimation). Everyone outside that group feels like they can work their well-paying (but <$500k) job for their whole life and never get there. Worse yet, layoffs are in full swing. Many software engineers feel like their life's skill is no longer useful. The day to day role of most jobs has changed overnight with AI. As a result, 1. The corporate ladder looks like the wrong building to climb. Everyone's trying to align with a new set of career "paths": should I be a founder? Is it too late to join Anthropic / OpenAI? should I get into AI? what company stock will 10x next? People are demanding higher salaries and switching jobs more and more. 2. There’s a deep malaise about work (and its future). Why even work at all for “peanuts”? Will my job even exist in a few years? Many feel helpless. You hear the “permanent underclass” conversation a lot, esp from young people. It's hard to focus on doing good work when you think "man, if I joined Anthropic 2yrs ago, I could retire" 3. The mid to late middle managers feel paralyzed. Many have families and don't feel like they have the energy or network to just "start a company". They don't particularly have any AI skills. They see the writing on the wall: middle management is being hollowed out in many companies. 4. The rich aren’t particularly happy either. No one is shedding tears for them (and rightfully so). But those who have "made it" experience a profound lack of purpose too. Some have gone from <$150k to >$50M in a few years with no ramp. It flips your life plans upside down. For some, comparison is the thief of joy. For some, they escape to NYC to "live life". For others still, they start companies "just cuz", often to win status points. They never imagined that by age 30, they'd be set. I once asked a post-economic founder friend why they didn't just sell the co and they said "and do what? right now, everyone wants to talk to me. if i sell, I will only have money." I understand that many reading this scoff at the champagne problems of the valley. Society is warped in this tech bubble. What is often well-off anywhere else in the world is bang average here. Unlike many other places, tenure, intelligence and hard work can be loosely correlated with outcomes in the Bay. Living through a societally transformative gold rush in that environment can be paralyzing. "Am I in the right place? Should I move? Is there time still left? Am I gonna make it?" It psychologically torments many who have moved here in search of "success". Ironically, a frequent side effect of this torment is to spin up the very products making everyone rich in hopes that you too can vibecode your path to economic enlightenment.

English
19
8
310
26.3K