Shane Simon, PhD

@PitcherList @CPTowers @PitcherListPLV Old saying: All models are wrong — some are useful

Hey y'all, I need to chat about our new @PitcherListPLV account. First of all, we have no idea how this happened. We expected to do a small launch and ramp it up throughout the spring as we ensured everything was working correctly, and in no world did we anticipate climbing from 800 followers to 100k+ in 24 hours. We've reached out to colleagues trying to grasp it, and I don't think anyone in their right mind actually believes I'd purchase bots to pump the numbers (if I actually wanted to, we'd do it for our YouTube channel!). While inspecting some of the cards during the day, we saw many complaining about the model's grades, and we 100% agree. Something was wrong. How on Earth could Tolle have such a low stuff grade? Triple F for Bergert's outing?! Let me explain what happened and a little more about what Pitcher List Stats is and our PLV model. We began developing PLV (Pitch Level Value) in 2019, after four years of work, and launched it in 2023. I personally worked with some brilliant people to get it to the finish line, including Colin Charles, Jeffrey Nicholas, Zach Dobroff, Cameron Grove of Pitching Bot, and now the head of our analytics department Kyle Bland. You can read the award-winning article from 2023 here:  pitcherlist.com/what-is-plv-an… As outlined there, this model is not something whipped up by AI over the last month. It takes into account dozens of factors, from release height, arm angle, movement, velocity, spin rates, extension, and all the good stuff. We've made adjustments here and there over the years and will continue to improve it indefinitely. It's a foundational metric that allows us to assess player skills on a different level, including crafting our Process+ metric for hitters. "But then why was it so obviously wrong yesterday?" Well, that has to do with a few factors, and Kyle does a fantastic job outlining what went wrong in the tweet below. In short, some overfitting, some small sample problems, and some spring training being spring training. The next tweet you'll see from @PitcherlistPLV will showcase the fixed model vs. some of the cards you saw yesterday. We're also expediting an article on the Pitcher List site from Kyle outlining all the factors that go into determining the grades you see on these cards, making it the clear reference point for everyone to use these cards to the best of their ability. Remember, we didn't expect for this account to get so much attention so quickly! Once we have our article live on our website, we will add a link inside these cards so everyone can understand the massive undertaking of making them. We spent weeks iterating on this design and determining what should go where (no AI involved), and we're incredibly thankful to have so many provide feedback on what metrics they want to see, what needs more clarity, and special requests. Please continue to do so, respectfully, of course. We've already made some changes that you'll see later today, such as renaming "Start" and "Models" to "Results" and "Skills", as they better represent what those grades are for. We love the idea of a "Start" grade to quickly grasp if a pitcher was good or poor, but we didn't make clear this grade was our version of a Game Score, and not a grade of the pitcher's stuff or PLV. We still like the idea of an all-encompassing "Skills & Results" number (and one for a SP vs. RP) and we'll keep toying with the idea. And yes, those "Start/Results" grades are low because we intended these cards to be featured mainly during the regular season, when pitchers are properly stretched out and aren't leaving after a few frames. Another artifact of our unexpected attention during the start of spring training. Lastly, while these cards are currently only for pitchers, we've already begun the process of creating cards for hitters - it's a little trickier given the small sample of a single game. I hope this post has cleared the air. We're still blown away at the support for our new account and we're excited to share our love for the game with all of you. Aces gonna ace, -Nick

@CPTowers @Roto_Frank is the email for asking questions still fantasybaseball@cbsi.com? Just curious if that inbox is still monitored

maxsportingstudio.com/power-speed-an… Wrote an analytical article breaking down how power and speed's changing in the MLB

@jdpereira One of the weirdest flexes I think I’ve ever seen on twitter

“All the data was already collected” Sigh.

@JosiahParry I just don’t see a legitimate reason to not use python in 2024. R is purely academic and doesn’t have nearly as robust of a community

@enosarris Ah if it isn’t the consequences of MLBs partnerships with gambling, and the players suffering the price

This is just so sad. Michael Kelly is the only one that ended up in the black, and this is how much he gambled. Not saying they shouldn’t have been suspended, just looking at these numbers and feeling sad.

I wrote an analytical article modeling what Ted Williams' and Joe DiMaggio's careers would have looked like if they didn't miss time from WW2. maxsportingstudio.com/what-if-ted-wi…

@DavidSt24 @BeyondTheHalo Best response to this. You either get the bunt down or you don't. Simple.

@BeyondTheHalo People mad at Ron but he’s trying to change the culture of a losing franchise. They can either follow the World Series champion or they can fire him and continue the loser ways. He’s old school, suck it up and be better.

to say Ron Washington threw Luis Guillorme under the bus is an understatement… twitter.com/BallySportWest…

@epigeekGab Someone had to say it

@DolphHauldhagen Totally agree. Are there categories of swing types based on the new metrics (Kmeans)? And do hitters change their type depending on the situation? Anyways, curious how all these data play out.

having new data is exciting. folks will race to be the first to "find" something. take your time with it. swings are complicated; they are spatial in nature, and statcast distilling them down to a few key metrics (out of necessity) likely obfuscates as much as it illuminates

This is your wake up call to stop using R and start using Python

@RobSilver That's a bold strategy cotton; let's see if it pays off for him.

So I did a thing in a draft this weekend I wanted to talk about… Kids….what you’re about to see is not something you should try at home….

@ByMarkDaniels My main takeaway is that this dude is really well spoken

Jabrill Peppers didn’t know Saquon Barkley had a mic on when he was caught saying “You lucky we ass.” Peppers apologized and took nearly 3.5 minutes to explain what happened

@Smada_PLive I get the feeling. Are they still going to be the A's though? They've spent time in Philly, KC, Oakland, and if they keep the name, Vegas too. The A's only know the nomatic style

A's leaving Oakland is the most helpless feeling and I'm not even a fan. Just childhood memories of a fun 2+ hr trek up into the east bay and cheap tickets in a crappy stadium to watch the best game there is. Bulldozing a historic franchise just sucks.

@tylermilliken_ I don’t think this Red Sox roster has that solid of a foundation. Devers is a defensive liability with DH occupied, their pitching is Bello, and Trevor story never hits well out of Coors. I’d argue they have the worst foundation in the AL East

Texas Rangers are proof of what the Red Sox could be in 2024 if they properly invest in the roster. 68 wins in 2022. Supplemented their foundation with some big arms over the offseason like Nate Eovaldi, and even when Jacob deGrom went down, doubled down on it with Jordan Montgomery, Aroldis Chapman, and Max Scherzer at the deadline. Chris Young took some big swings. Wasn’t scared to miss. Hoping to see Craig Breslow work with this type of outlook in the offseason.

@Roto_Frank Royce Lewis or Elly De La Cruz next year for a keeper, last round value

Hey there! I'm around for the next 20 min or so answering your Week 8 Fantasy Football start/sit questions. Just make sure to include the hashtag #AskFFT!

I love coffee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

@NickScols @_im_special We may have gotten too low

@sharkweekshane @_im_special This is really good camera work to not be able to see the giant rip in my pants from getting too low earlier

@sharkweekshane and @NickScols know how to party gd

Thesis defense initiation ✅