Sheepbagger

@racismiscancer @Moose5524 @BenRabidoux No thanks, your thesis is wrong because if anyone shared your belief they would be out buying, but they're not. So you're wrong and I'm right. Argument over.

@sheepbagger @Moose5524 @BenRabidoux Do you know what cycles mean? I would advise you to go and do some research.

Wow! this + HST removal will move the needle on new development AND lower the floor on resale prices

@R3Dchef @Michael56297223 @MattSpoke Yes I agree with you 100%. They were a "Bail out" for currently owner to keep their property taxes suppressed so they could live in detached home where land values called for density. Too bad for them, gravy train has left the station.

@sheepbagger @Michael56297223 @MattSpoke kitchener.citynews.ca/2024/06/01/kit… Kitchener is building a lavish arena, 90% paid for by development charges. I thought this was about sewers and roads?

Disappointing take from what is usually a very thoughtful group of people. Development charges are a very narrow tax that specifically hits homebuyers and renters. They are also front loaded to cover the full cost of overly expensive infrastructure, rather than spreading out the benefits of that infrastructure across a broader tax base and an appropriate time horizon.

@racismiscancer @Moose5524 @BenRabidoux Haha if any of you believed that sales wouldn't be at 0, so keeping coping and losing money every month

@Moose5524 @sheepbagger @BenRabidoux Totally, what I mean is they will be higher than what they are now. When I say much higher, I am talking about at least 5% higher than what they are now.

@Michael56297223 @R3Dchef @MattSpoke Yeah not paying tax = socialism. The education system has really failed the debt fueled real estate gamblers around here.

@sheepbagger @R3Dchef @MattSpoke Socialism for developers/speculators. Government bailout. Paid by taxpayers. Sad

@Supervillian007 @SteveSaretsky They really think a 1.9 mill SFD going down to 1.7 will cause the market to rip and the gravy train will come back, pathetic to watch. "Bail out" ...okay saretsky.

@SteveSaretsky Let me know when you finally get some actual new home sales…

Step 3 of the bailout.

@BalzacBlazer @JonFlynnREstats Well that post went right over you head.

@JonFlynnREstats Why the hell should any government chip in for private market concerns?

So when is Toronto going to chip in their part to housing affordability and scrap their Municipal Land Transfer Tax?

@danielfoch I love how after prices start going into freefall, now we get all these long winded excursives about how "boomers have too accept price declines". They don't have to accept anything, it's happening without their permission. Don't give the old narcissists supply, life goes on.

The housing shortage made many boomers rich. Here’s why they might dismantle the system anyhow To fix our housing situation, more members of older demographics will have to push to change what made many of them rich, writes Jessica Barrett. thestar.com/news/insight/b…

@jonbrooks If they bought a house to sell it 1 or 2 years later they were speculating on short term price gains and rather than feel sorry for them we can all have a good gawk and enjoy their misery.

New construction buyers are in a trap: Bought at peak price Got a rate buydown Sounds great… Until they try to sell. Then they realize: They’re $100K underwater instantly.

@WolfBro92365572 @BenRabidoux @WillKneelander I'm not trying to be rude to you, but you honestly have 0 clue what you are talking about.

@BenRabidoux @WillKneelander The graph says "Growth", not total population. One year of negative "Growth" isn't going to offset the past (pick a number) "Growth" years. Too many people, not enough affordable dwellings..... I say give the 50% cut to the buyer. It's their (tax) money.

@WillKneelander @BenRabidoux Lots of clowns like this making predictions of price increases but amazingly sales are still at 0. Lots of bag holders waiting for their bailout that is not coming.

I do not believe the slow trickle of new build homes can satiate the 'need now' demand of canadian home buyers, furthermore handle the influx of immigration needs. Could this play a factor in urban centers? possibly. In high demand areas, I believe we are about to see higher prices again.

@BenRabidoux Lots of belly achin' from people who thought HST+DCC would put a floor under their moldy old dump they wanted to unload for 20x what they paid. Lots of home moaners out today.

@Moose5524 @BenRabidoux Haha, thanks for the laugh. Prices increase again fuckin' beauty.

@BenRabidoux Don’t think so. Replacement building costs are so high that resale homes/condos are actually available at a significant discount. New home prices will still be relatively too expensive. New development is going to be frozen for a few years until prices increase again.

@MattSpoke They're just mad because they thought HST+ DCC would put a floor under their moldy old bungalow they wanted to offload for 20x what they paid for it. Ignore their whining.

@R3Dchef @Michael56297223 @MattSpoke They're just mad because they thought HST+ DCC would put a floor under their moldy old bungalow they wanted to offload for 20x what they paid for it. Ignore their whining.

@Michael56297223 @MattSpoke unless it’s backdated, how is it a bailout? new residents pay property taxes too, on top of development charges. existing residents are freeloading. and population growth is what’s going to pay for your healthcare. you’ve taken for granted how much immigration pays our way

@loochc1 @RichardDias_CFA Lol. Wow are they mad

We’re tanking the resale value of existing homes by $200,000 just to bail out the developers. God forbid you closed on a house in 2022-2024 with one of those magical blanket appraisals… and now you’re underwater. Blame the Orange Man, obviously. Elbows up and asses up, folks. Bend over for the greater good.

Letting the market clear is far more progressive than allocating government tax revenue to bailing out the equity stack of investors that have made money hand over fist during Canada’s mass immigration years and housing bubble.

@newstart_2024 This is the gayest content ever uploaded to the internet. "Woman wakes up and does a work out" Wow amazing, thanks for telling us.

This woman woke up at 4 AM in 20° cold, worked out for two hours, faced a packed college Monday… and her first thought? “I woke up this morning. I’m healthy. I get to move my body. I get to learn. And above all—Jesus loves me. Not because of anything I’ve done. Just because I’m His.” No complaints. Just tears of gratitude. A beautiful reminder: The greatest privilege isn’t the workout, the degree, or the sunrise—it’s waking up known and loved by our Creator. If you’re breathing today, you’re already blessed beyond measure. Don’t let the noise steal your thankfulness. He loves you more than you’ll ever grasp.

@AmosA9127 @TheELongWave I don't care

@sheepbagger @TheELongWave The points: 1. Just b/c everyone is not loading up on houses doesn’t mean house price are dead forever (per 2011 v 2022-2026 in Phoenix) 2. You said ‘you bag holders’. So just making the point that I’m not a bag holder Also, I don’t live in Phoenix - I live in B.C

Why Central Banks Can't Print Their Way Out Of This Debt Crisis (The Money Printing Fallacy) Many people believe central banks can simply "print money" to solve economic downturns. This assumption worked during the Credit Expansion phase (1980-2020), but it fails catastrophically during Credit Deflation. Here's why Canada's coming crisis can't be solved with monetary expansion. The Fundamental Problem: You Can't Print Borrowers When the Bank of Canada "prints money," it creates bank reserves. But reserves don't become circulating money unless someone borrows. In a debt deflation, the private sector stops borrowing and starts paying down debt. No amount of available credit matters if nobody wants it. Think of it this way: offering a drowning person another glass of water doesn't help. Canadian households at 216% debt-to-GDP aren't looking for more debt—they're desperately trying to reduce what they already owe. The Balance Sheet Recession Reality Japan proved this from 1990-2020. The Bank of Japan expanded base money by over 500%. Result? Decades of deflation and stagnant growth. Why? Japanese households and corporations were reducing debt rather than taking on new loans. Richard Koo documented this as a "balance sheet recession"—when entities shift from profit maximization to debt minimization, interest rates become irrelevant. You won't borrow at 0% if you're trying to get out of debt. The Math Doesn't Work Canada has over $3 trillion in private debt. At current rates, debt servicing consumes 15-20% of household income, compared with the historical 6-7%. That's $400-600 billion annually going to debt service instead of consumption. The BoC could print $100 billion—but if households must pay down $200 billion in debt, the money supply still contracts by $100 billion. The existing debt stock creates a deflationary undertow that overwhelms new money creation. The 2026 Mortgage Wall C$320 billion in mortgages are due for renewal in 2026. Borrowers who locked in at 2% face a renewal rate of 4% or higher. Their required debt service doubles. Even if the BoC cuts rates, the damage is done—households must redirect income from spending to debt service. This is arithmetic, not speculation. Printing money doesn't change the contractual obligation to service existing debt. It's already on the balance sheet. The deleveraging is mathematically inevitable. The Banking Transmission Breakdown Commercial banks create most money through lending. But when defaults rise, and capital ratios fall, banks restrict credit despite central bank liquidity. In 2008-2009, the Fed massively expanded reserves. Commercial bank lending still contracted because: (1) borrowers were deleveraging, (2) banks were tightening standards, (3) Creditworthy borrowers didn't want more debt. The transmission mechanism from central bank reserves to the real economy breaks down. Money printing becomes meaningless if it can't reach the economy. The Demographic Wall Money printing assumes a growing population of borrowers. Canada's natural population change goes negative in 2032—deaths will exceed births. We become 100% immigration-dependent. But immigrants arrive with little capital and high debt-to-income ratios. They can't replace the borrowing capacity of established households paying down debt. You can't print the demographic demand for 30-year mortgages. Real Rates Rising—The Killer Combination Here's what makes this cycle different: real rates will rise during deflation. Historically, central banks have cut nominal interest rates below the inflation rate, creating negative real interest rates that made debt easier to service. But we've exhausted this mechanism: Nominal rates already hit zero (2020) Structural inflation from deglobalization, energy transition, aging Central banks can't cut much further without currency collapse Even as credit deflates and the economy contracts, real borrowing costs rise. This is the debt trap—you get deflation's income destruction with inflation's interest rate burden. Worst of both worlds. The Historical Evidence Is Clear Every major debt deflation proves monetary expansion fails: 1930s USA: Money supply contracted 30% despite Fed efforts 1990s-2020s Japan: 500%+ base money expansion, minimal growth, persistent deflation 2008-2020 USA: QE quadrupled the monetary base, yet M2 velocity collapsed to record lows The pattern is consistent: when private-sector deleveraging begins, monetary expansion cannot offset it. It's a solvency crisis, not a liquidity crisis. The Irving Fisher Debt-Deflation Trap As prices fall, the real value of debt increases. Your $500,000 mortgage doesn't shrink just because home prices drop to $400,000—you still owe $500,000, but now it's 125% of your home's value instead of 100%. This forces additional asset sales and debt repayment, causing further deflation in a self-reinforcing spiral. Monetary expansion can't break this cycle because the problem is the debt stock itself, not a lack of available credit. Why Belief Persists People believe in money printing because it appeared to work from 1981 to 2021. But that era was Credit Expansion—declining rates enabled ever-increasing leverage. Each round of printing encouraged more borrowing. That 40-year cycle is over. Rates hit the zero bound. Demographics turned negative. Debt-to-GDP hit mathematical limits. The Bottom Line Central banks can create reserves. They cannot create demand for debt. They cannot make over-indebted households borrow more. They cannot change the contractual obligations of existing debt. They cannot print demographics. They cannot overcome the mathematical reality of deleveraging. Canada's C$320 billion mortgage renewal wall in 2026 isn't a liquidity problem the BoC can solve with printing. It's a solvency problem requiring years of painful deleveraging—either through defaults, debt paydown, or real income growth (which isn't coming with negative demographics). The Minsky Moment arrives in 2026. No amount of printing changes that arithmetic. The only question is whether Canadians prepare now or learn through painful experience.

@AmosA9127 @TheELongWave What does any of this have to do with the topic ? I don't care. Moving on. Enjoy Pheonix.

@sheepbagger @TheELongWave But I bought in 2011 and am up 6x in CAD (plus 15 yrs of collecting rent) I sold two in 2022 and recouped my entire cost basis

@AmosA9127 @TheELongWave If you bought in Pheonix in 2008 you had dead money for 12 years and now it's down 10% on the year. Would have made more renting and buying govt bonds. You bag holders are really starting to squeal.

@sheepbagger @TheELongWave No one was buying homes in Phoenix in 2011 yet here we are 15 years later and condos are worth 6x what they were then (7x a couple years ago), not including the income they’ve generated

@AmosA9127 @TheELongWave If that's true then everyone would be loading up on houses right now, sales are at 30 year lows so none of you believe that.

@sheepbagger @TheELongWave If the debt is mathematically unpayable it eventually gets restructured or inflated away (which causes commodities, housing and rents to go up in nominal $). The system always chooses survival over arithmetic fairness.