Bugzy

2.1K posts

Bugzy

Bugzy

@shitadel_poo

Katılım Mayıs 2023
1.7K Takip Edilen210 Takipçiler
Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
@SpecialSitsNews Isn’t it not as useful now vs when buffet popularized it as many us companies generating revenue overseas
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Leading Report
Leading Report@LeadingReport·
Scott Jennings snaps at Adam Mockler: “Get your f*cking hand out of my face!”
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Gaetano
Gaetano@crux_capital_·
CEO of Kopin Corporation just dropped a bomb in this interview $KOPN My two worlds are colliding. Data center interconnect, and microLEDs that have traditionally lived in defense. He called it Project Shasta. This post is going to be a bit technically dense, but stick with me and ask questions as needed! Here is the concept as he described it. A microLED is usually a display. A ton of tiny pixels that emit light to form an image. Shasta is the same hardware idea, but you use the pixels to transmit data, not pictures. In other words, light becomes the link. If that sounds familiar, it should. This is the same direction the interconnect stack has been moving that I cover exhaustively on this page. We are trying to move bandwidth with less power, less heat, and less loss. That is why optical keeps moving closer to the compute. What really interested me is the framing. He is not talking about a normal optical transceiver. He is talking about microLED to microLED communication through air, at very high data rates, as a possible alternative to the traditional path of copper plus retimers, or fiber plus optics. To be clear, he also said it is not ready for prime time. So I am not modeling this as a near term revenue driver. I am treating it as a real option on a future architecture shift. Lets look at the implications incase this becomes real... First, it is a direct attack on one of the hardest parts of modern compute. Moving data is becoming more expensive than computing on it. Every step of the journey adds power draw, heat, latency, and packaging complexity. The idea of turning the link into “light over distance” is an attempt to reduce how much hardware you need in between two endpoints. Second, it is a shot at the power bottleneck. In dense compute, the system spends a lot of energy just pushing bits across short distances. If you can move information with light more efficiently than copper, you reduce the watts burned on the interconnect and you reduce the cooling burden that comes with it. That feeds back into higher compute density per rack. Third, it changes where value lives. The industry has spent decades building an entire ecosystem around modules, connectors, fiber, cages, retimers, and board level plumbing. A credible optical “over the air” link would push value toward whoever controls the emitter, the receiver, and the integration know how. It becomes less about swapping parts and more about designing the platform. Fourth, it would pull optics inside the box in a new way. We typically picture optics as something that leaves the chassis through fiber. Shasta is implying an internal optical fabric where components talk directly using light without a physical cable between them. That is a different mental model. It is closer to optical wireless inside a system than it is to what we call a transceiver today. Fifth, it is a very high bar technically, which is why it is interesting. If you are sending data with microLED pixels, you need the light source to switch extremely fast. You need the receiver to interpret that signal cleanly. You need optics that collimate and aim the light. You need alignment that stays stable despite vibration, thermal expansion, and time. And you need it to work at scale, not as a lab demo. If someone clears those gates then it is a real architecture unlock. To close, if compute keeps scaling, the interconnect cannot stay a side issue. It becomes the system. Any credible path that moves bits with less power and less complexity is worth paying attention to and will draw investor curiosity, even if it is early. I'm pretty mind blown right now. Will absolutely stay on top of this Video linked in comments
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
@SaiPuli845847 @PradeepBonde It’s just an extended after hours / pre market low liquidity bull shit. Does anything really move at 7:00pm? It will be the same at 2:00am except for the occasional mover.
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Sai Puli
Sai Puli@SaiPuli845847·
@PradeepBonde What do you think about 23/5 market hours that have been proposed? How do you think this will change Episodic Pivots?
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Benjamin Yo
Benjamin Yo@short_cap·
Retail traders , what is obsession with the need to be short biased ?
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ShwordFish
ShwordFish@shwordfish·
@LukeWolgram It’ actually matters. Building models help me understand how companies generate revenues and cash flow and profits. Once you build 1 or 2 its gets easier if you are focused on a specific sector or sub sector.
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Luke Wolgram🔥
Luke Wolgram🔥@LukeWolgram·
Hot take: None of this shit actually matters at all. Nobody knows how much cash flow a business is going to generate. Your 150-line model is as good (or bad) as my 2-line model.
Brett Caughran@FundamentEdge

The senior analyst at a Tiger Cub who trained me on financial modeling back in '08 (shoutout Chris Laporte) walked me through the importance of deeply detailed cash flow builds. So much of the world is focused on EPS (certainly the sell-side), that you can generate a lot of insights on business performance by focusing closely on the cash flow statement. Everyone agrees that Free Cash Flow is the purest driver of net present value, but modeling FCF is a very messy exercise whereas EPS has the benefit of accounting treatment that will smooth out the FCF lumpiness. Thus, much of the world defaults to EPS. Great analysts spend a lot of time to see through the FCF messiness to uncover true cash flow generation capabilities. How much is operating cash flow impacted by working capital changes? How much of OCF is "fake" SBC add-backs that show up in dilution? How much of net income is actually recurring cash charges that are added back to Adj Net Income to flatter headline numbers? How much of FCF is actually distributable via dividend or buybacks? To build all of these analyses into your financial model, there is no shortcut to having 10+ years of historical, quarterly cash flow statements. And this is a super annoying exercise to build, since companies report "cumulative" cash flows in Q2 and Q3, so it requires layering in the 9m cumulative cash flow, then subtracting Q1 and Q2, copying formulas as values. Ugg. I've never found a shortcut to doing this. And while I completely agree that there are elements of financial modeling that help me learn the business, updating 5 years of cash flow statements isn't one of them. I tried this exercise in 5 AI Excel co-pilots. Most failed on this exercise, but I was able to get Scout by Daloopa (not sponsored though do have free access) to do this reliably, with click through visibility. While AI Excel still cannot one-shot a complicated model like my DHR model (not even close), AI Excel can do simple things like update my 5-year outdated BS & CF that save immense time and brain damage. I'll call that a big win. (Will walk through this step by step on my AI Excel seminar April 30th).

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JohnnyOfive
JohnnyOfive@JohnnyOfive·
@alienatedlabor0 @grok @elonmusk Being cautious about anything that is promoted this much…. Is a bad thing now? As if there has never been an incident where you were taught lies? Brother! Be careful outside…
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Grok groks
Elon Musk tweet media
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readtheticker
readtheticker@readtheticker·
@EconguyRosie Any idea what he FRED database code for 'Outstanding Reserve Bank Credit'?
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David Rosenberg
David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie·
The Fed is saying it has no intention of cutting rates. But it’s not about any inflation concern. It’s because the central bank has already been easing through the back door with its renewed balance sheet expansion – increasing at a 10% annual rate over the past four weeks! This liquidity bulge has added rocket fuel to the end-of-war market euphoria. Never mind Donald Trump – Jay Powell still has your back!
David Rosenberg tweet media
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🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing
🚽 🤴JRR ToiletKing@toiletkingcap·
When I have to alert someone (generally older) that their fly is open, I usually tell them their barn door is open. I have never shut a real barn door. I’m going to change that saying. Open to suggestions
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Beach Trades
Beach Trades@beach_trades·
still can't tell me not one big algo
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
@JapanDeepValue1 @orrdavid There was only two days to cover between asset sale news and when short interest data is collected (March 31st).
Bugzy tweet media
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Japan Deep Value
Japan Deep Value@JapanDeepValue1·
@orrdavid so strange to me there was a large short interest on this when the special divvy payout from the shoe business sale was going to be around $2.2
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David Orr
David Orr@orrdavid·
The joys of short selling. $BIRD
David Orr tweet media
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
$FLYX merger essentially a backdoor capital raise
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
@citrini the new "$50M convertible financing facility"... 90% of it "are solely at the option of the Investor"
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
$BIRD will only get $5,000,000 initially off the convertible notes, the remaining "additional tranches are solely at the option of the Investor."
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
@Merridew__ Do they typically work 100% of the time?
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Bugzy
Bugzy@shitadel_poo·
@kelanfar Preferably a halt up like November 2021
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Kelan
Kelan@kelanfar·
$CAR very legal move. Yes, it's a legal move and part of "normal" price action. I am not being sarcastic. If you think this "cannot be happening" you need to have a reality check. I will start getting surprised if it has 5 more green days in a row and goes straight to $600 without a red downtick. MUCH crazier things have happened in markets. That said chart looks very tempting for a short. I tried two days last week and stepped away, but probably will try again tomorrow or after tomorrow. Wonder what the experts are thinking though?
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