SHIVAM NARULA

@arunpandian_r7 @vijay27anand It can be opposite as well i am saying tvk loose but dmk gains more if fresh eletion happen early

@vijay27anand I think a re-election will favour TVK Vijay even more forming dominant majority

What happens next in a hung assembly (Indian constitutional process): The Governor invites the single largest party, here TVK with 107 seats to form the government. TVK gets the first chance: TVK leader (actor Vijay) will be invited to take oath as Chief Minister and form a government (it can be a minority government or with post-poll support). TVK is short by 11 seats (107 + 11 = 118). They will need support from smaller parties (INC, PMK, IUML, CPI) or ADMK. Floor test (confidence vote): Within a short time decided by the Governor (usually 7–15 days or even sooner), TVK must prove its majority on the floor of the Assembly through a vote of confidence.If they win → TVK government is formed (Vijay becomes CM). If they fail → Governor can invite the next largest combination. If no one can form a stable government: The Governor can recommend President’s Rule under Article 356 of the Constitution. The Assembly is kept in suspended animation or dissolved, and fresh elections may be called after some time.

@DcastratedKing @numberrr_22 They never did. Different strategy for different states

@numberrr_22 What works on bengal won't automatically replicate in TN and KL. there could be expansion , yes. but the 3 attempt formula is much harder due to entrenched ideological ecosystems.

Their pattern is.... → 1st try they will asses everything, no focus on winning, purely setting up ground for next election. → 2nd try they will gain good number of seats example: bengal, maha, Delhi, creating its own voter base. → 3rd attempt = victory by hook or crook. Example Delhi, Bengali, Maha. Next is Telengana, Karnataka and remaining south.

@ss96990 @adityajakki J&k will be the last one

@adityajakki TN probably will be the last frontier for BJP to breach. A very very hard place for their brand of politics. Annamalai was an opportunity that they have missed.

Story of BJP since 2014 in states before it breached: We Marathis are different, you don't understand We Haryanvis are different, you don't understand We Biharis are different, you don't understand We Assamese are different, you don't understand We Tripurites are different, you don't understand We Odia are different, you don't understand We Bengalis are different, you don't understand ................................................................................................ Everyone is different till they aren't Punjab, Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu are different till they won't be

@Antardrshti Do you think if bjp won west bengal than the pessimism among bjp supporters goes away or we need to wait till UP 2027 or it would end when bjp win 2029 GE with thumping majority.

🤦‍♂️

@JaipurDialogues 168 to 173

Your Seat Prediction for BJP, TMC tomorrow?

@Voiceofhindus 173 seats

Predict the exact number of seats, BJP will win in Bengal... Lucky winner will get 2000 cash prize

@muglikar_ 173

Around 24 hours remain. Post your seat predictions for BJP in replies. Not a range like the pollsters. Just the exact number prediction for BJP.

@Antardrshti Tell me of rmc makes anarchy in counting does eci will do repoll?? Also if that happen i think it will be easy for central govt to force president rule

But 1 thing I would repeat for the 3rd time EC has done its job and couldn’t have done it any better or any more than this. That re-re-election in Falta is simply spirit and backbone breaking move for TMC gundagardi. EC has done all possible to ensure no rigging

@ankurwriter So now what will happen do you think anyone from opposition party becone pm

End of Narendra Modi reign highly likely in late July or in August 2026. Fresh general elections highly likely in early or mid-2027. #India #predictions

@Antardrshti Isnt kerala count as loss 😅😅

There has to be and there will be a ‘let out’ election from angry BJP voters I would rather that not happen in UP 2027, either 1 election just before or after works. UP internal security threats are terror apparatus is crumbling starting Sambhal and too many infra which SP will steal credit in 2029 so it’s a non negotiable thing.

@bong_politics I think the pessimism of bjp supporters go away if bjp wins UP election. It will bosts up if either karnatka or telangana or both the election BJP wins.

TMC supporters in Twitter doing everything to motivate their workers And BJP supporters in Twitter doing everything to demotivate their workers and fear mongering That's the difference between TMC and BJP 👍 BJP supporters are so dumb man🤦

@bong_politics I think you are taking this too seriously people who actually work on ground mostly they dont even care about what is on twitter/x.

@Knight_riders18 But what will happen of inc loose badly in 2029 do you think a new political can be a centre right party comes up.

One would tend to believe that on 4th May, the BJP will be the happiest if the TMC and Mamata Banerjee are defeated. However, there is one person who will be even happier than the BJP on "Didi Gayi"—Rahul Gandhi. Yes, he will be the happiest person. The BJP is effectively eliminating all those who challenge Rahul Gandhi as a potential opposition candidate for the top post in 2029. First, it was Kejriwal, and now it will be Didi. The only remaining challenger is Akhilesh Yadav, and Rahul Gandhi will be hoping that the BJP finishes him off as well in 2027. Once that happens, the field will be clear for Rahul Gandhi. This is what we call a mutual understanding "You scratch my back, I scratch yours." Rahul Gandhi helps the BJP in elections through his missteps, and in return, the BJP is assisting him by removing his opponents. Kuch toh MOU hai dono ke beech mein! 🤣

@Knight_riders18 It was also beneficial for bjp too to make the sole oppostion face as raga

@Indianciti07 Congress secular image is already shattered in north, west and east sooner it will be shattered in south as well. I am not saying minorities doesnt vote inc but they get the idea that voting inc is waste.

@shivamnarula99 They want to safeguard their secular image

Tvk will never ever ally with bjp, if at all they need alliance with admk then the door will be shown to bjp.. saying this as few are thinking tvk will come to bjp for alliance..their aim is to somehow ally with congress in the longer term.. Just my thought..

@VickyChicko As of now better will be dmk win above 118 and congress wins only only 10

@TVK_Abarna @chingchongwings @TVKVijayHQ @RahulGandhi If TVK really want to dominate they should put all national level parties to its tvk this is what done by dmk and aiadmk over the years. Because giving space to any one whether it is bjp or inc its like they will snatch your party base.

Mission 2029🎯

@biharigurl 168

Give exact number of Seats BJP will get in West Bengal election!

@Antardrshti @hvgoenka Please make a new one i dont think any party will be presented in bottem right square. Only some parties individuals mla and mp will be there.

@shivamnarula99 @hvgoenka Yes i created this diagram in 2016 ☺️

A friend put it interestingly, and it made sense: On the right side of politics, the BJP stands tall alone, largely owning the space of Hindu identity and nationalism, which resonates with roughly 50% of the population. The only other party Shiv Sena, once the other clear right-wing Hindu voice, has almost vacated that position. On the left, it’s all the rest of the parties, including Congress, SP, AAP, TMC, CPM, etc jostling among themselves for the rest of the 50%. And therefore, he said, the BJP juggernaut is bound to keep rolling on.

@Mayank_meghwal_ @Antardrshti @hvgoenka I say after 2016 many parties started freebies cant remember who was the first one to do that i think it was BRS

@shivamnarula99 @Antardrshti @hvgoenka 2016 m freebies???