
Shivnath Thukral
15.6K posts

Shivnath Thukral
@shivithukral
Self inflicting disruption every few years, TV journalism, corporate, set up a Think Tank, never a dull moment, strong views, big dreams. All tweets personal



This the first thing you see as you get off the Haldwani Railway Station — a field full of trash, that’s your introduction to the foothills of Kumaon. As you enter its largest city, Almora, there isn’t a spot where you won’t find trash. Only the Army Cantt area is clean (last pic). It’s an absolute shame and I have not seen Uttarakhand in such a mess before. The nagar palikas simply don’t seem to be working — is it lack of funds? is it corruption? what exactly has turned the state into a total trash pile? BJP govt should take a hard look at this instead of celebrating their chaar saal bemisaal. Also what exactly has the Swachh Bharat Mission achieved apart from giving us irritating jingles.

India’s foreign policy today is: Not about alignment,but exposure.✍


JUST IN: The United States has not built a new oil refinery in fifty years. Fifty. The last one broke ground when Nixon was president and oil cost $3 a barrel. Trump just announced a $300 billion deal to build one. The largest energy investment in American history. Port of Brownsville, Texas. Groundbreaking Q2 2026. Binding 20-year offtake agreement. Processing American shale crude. Thousands of jobs in South Texas. “The cleanest refinery in the world.” The lead investor is Indian. Reliance Industries, controlled by the Ambani family with a 50.39% promoter stake, operators of the Jamnagar complex in Gujarat, the largest single-site refinery on Earth, are the confirmed major foreign partner. Trump thanked them on Truth Social as “our partners in India, and their largest privately held Energy Company” for their “tremendous investment.” Now hold two facts simultaneously. India’s Reliance Industries is investing billions in an American refinery to process American shale oil for American energy dominance. India’s government, led by Modi, is simultaneously importing over 40% of its crude from Russia at war-discounted prices, rejected the US “permission” framing for a 30-day Russian oil waiver on 7th March (“India has never depended on permission from any country”), and continues buying Iranian crude via Chabahar port logistics. The same country. The same week. Building American energy independence with one hand. Buying Russian crude with the other. This is not hypocrisy. This is the Modi Doctrine operating at its highest expression. Multi-alignment means India does not choose sides. It chooses deals. QUAD membership for security. Russian crude for energy. Chabahar for Iranian access. Reliance capital for American refining. Israeli defence technology for military modernisation. Gulf remittances for 10 million workers. No formal alliance with any power. Maximum leverage with all of them. Every relationship is transactional. Every commitment is calibrated. Every contradiction serves a constituency. Trump needs the refinery because the Iran war just proved that 50 years without building one left America dependent on foreign refining capacity for products its own shale produces. The Strait of Hormuz did not just close oil transit. It closed the refined product supply chain that feeds American gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. Building domestic refining capacity is the structural response to Actuarial Warfare: if chokepoints can be closed by insurance spreadsheets, the only defence is not needing the chokepoint. Ambani needs the deal because Reliance’s Jamnagar complex processes Gulf crude that transits Hormuz. The same Strait that is mined, uninsured, and defended by 31 autonomous IRGC commands. Diversifying into American shale refining hedges against the exact crisis currently paralysing Reliance’s primary feedstock route. This is not philanthropy. It is the world’s largest refiner buying insurance that no P&I club can provide. The war created the crisis. The crisis created the deal. The deal was signed by the country whose Prime Minister was just given “permission” to buy Russian oil and told America it never asked. Fifty years. One war. One phone call. And the billionaire who builds it is from the country Washington cannot decide whether to sanction or celebrate. Full analysis here. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

While the United States spends billions bombing Iran and the world watches oil prices crash, China just published the most consequential economic document of the decade. Nobody is paying attention. That is the point. The 15th Five-Year Plan, unveiled at the National People’s Congress on 5th March, is 141 pages. It mentions artificial intelligence over 50 times. It targets 70% AI penetration across the Chinese economy by 2027 and 90% by 2030. It designates humanoid robotics as a core pillar industry with output doubling over five years. It commits to space-Earth quantum communication networks, nuclear fusion timelines, and brain-computer interfaces. It sets AI-related industries at a target value exceeding 10 trillion yuan, approximately $1.38 trillion. And it declares “extraordinary measures” for rare earths and semiconductor self-reliance. This is not an economic plan. It is a war plan for a war the United States is not fighting because it is too busy fighting the wrong one. The US response to Chinese technological competition is the CHIPS and Science Act, signed in 2022. It appropriated $52.7 billion for semiconductor manufacturing, including $39 billion in direct grants and a 25% investment tax credit that expires this year. It has spurred over $640 billion in private investment across 140 projects in 30 states. It created half a million jobs. By any measure, it is the most significant US industrial policy in a generation. And it covers exactly one sector of an economy-wide technological competition. China’s plan covers every sector. AI across the entire economy. Robotics as industrial backbone. Space infrastructure. Quantum computing. Rare earth processing dominance maintained and strengthened. The CHIPS Act is a rifle. The 15th Five-Year Plan is an arsenal. The rare earth dimension is where the plans intersect with the war. China controls 90% of global rare earth processing. Every F-35 joint strike fighter requires 920 pounds of rare earth materials. Every Patriot missile battery, every THAAD interceptor, every guided munition being expended over Iran at a rate of thousands per week depends on materials that China processes. The “extraordinary measures” in the Five-Year Plan are not defensive. They are the tightening of a supply chain that the US military cannot function without. In April 2025, China imposed export controls on all 17 rare earth elements. The January 2027 DFARS deadline requires the Pentagon to eliminate Chinese rare earth dependency from defence procurement. That leaves a 10-to-15-year vulnerability window during which the United States is simultaneously waging a war that consumes rare-earth-dependent munitions at historic rates and attempting to build alternative supply chains that do not yet exist. The Iran war is consuming the interceptors. China is tightening the supply chain that builds the interceptors. The Five-Year Plan is the document that formalises the tightening into national strategy. Trump posted “Death, Fire, and Fury” on Truth Social. Xi Jinping published a 141-page plan to ensure that the materials required to deliver that fire and fury remain under Chinese control for the next fifteen years. One leader is fighting a war. The other is winning the peace. And the 141 pages that will determine which strategy prevails were published the same week the bombs started falling. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…



Sanju Samson's wife saying " yh yh he is coming " is too cute😭🤌




we're making @blocks smaller today. here's my note to the company. #### today we're making one of the hardest decisions in the history of our company: we're reducing our organization by nearly half, from over 10,000 people to just under 6,000. that means over 4,000 of you are being asked to leave or entering into consultation. i'll be straight about what's happening, why, and what it means for everyone. first off, if you're one of the people affected, you'll receive your salary for 20 weeks + 1 week per year of tenure, equity vested through the end of may, 6 months of health care, your corporate devices, and $5,000 to put toward whatever you need to help you in this transition (if you’re outside the U.S. you’ll receive similar support but exact details are going to vary based on local requirements). i want you to know that before anything else. everyone will be notified today, whether you're being asked to leave, entering consultation, or asked to stay. we're not making this decision because we're in trouble. our business is strong. gross profit continues to grow, we continue to serve more and more customers, and profitability is improving. but something has changed. we're already seeing that the intelligence tools we’re creating and using, paired with smaller and flatter teams, are enabling a new way of working which fundamentally changes what it means to build and run a company. and that's accelerating rapidly. i had two options: cut gradually over months or years as this shift plays out, or be honest about where we are and act on it now. i chose the latter. repeated rounds of cuts are destructive to morale, to focus, and to the trust that customers and shareholders place in our ability to lead. i'd rather take a hard, clear action now and build from a position we believe in than manage a slow reduction of people toward the same outcome. a smaller company also gives us the space to grow our business the right way, on our own terms, instead of constantly reacting to market pressures. a decision at this scale carries risk. but so does standing still. we've done a full review to determine the roles and people we require to reliably grow the business from here, and we've pressure-tested those decisions from multiple angles. i accept that we may have gotten some of them wrong, and we've built in flexibility to account for that, and do the right thing for our customers. we're not going to just disappear people from slack and email and pretend they were never here. communication channels will stay open through thursday evening (pacific) so everyone can say goodbye properly, and share whatever you wish. i'll also be hosting a live video session to thank everyone at 3:35pm pacific. i know doing it this way might feel awkward. i'd rather it feel awkward and human than efficient and cold. to those of you leaving…i’m grateful for you, and i’m sorry to put you through this. you built what this company is today. that's a fact that i'll honor forever. this decision is not a reflection of what you contributed. you will be a great contributor to any organization going forward. to those staying…i made this decision, and i'll own it. what i'm asking of you is to build with me. we're going to build this company with intelligence at the core of everything we do. how we work, how we create, how we serve our customers. our customers will feel this shift too, and we're going to help them navigate it: towards a future where they can build their own features directly, composed of our capabilities and served through our interfaces. that's what i'm focused on now. expect a note from me tomorrow. jack

I spent 100 hours over the past week researching, writing and editing the piece we just put out. It’s a scenario, not a prediction like most of our work. But it was rigorously constructed, dismissing it outright requires the kind of intellectual laziness that tends to get expensive. And we’ve released it for free. Hopefully you enjoy it. citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

Very sad news: Major Maroof Raza has passed away.. many TV viewers will remember Maroof and his distinctive style and knowledge on defence issues. . RIP





I’m excited to share that we’ve launched an AI-powered natural language search on @PhonePe, built using Microsoft Foundry. We are moving from traditional menus to intent-based routing—allowing users to navigate the app, make payments, and track insights using simple voice or text commands. What I’m most excited about is the architecture behind this which uses a hybrid model that combines local on-device and cloud inferencing, while keeping all processing secure and ensuring privacy with no personal or transactional data leaving the PhonePe environment. At PhonePe, we believe Payments should be built for people, not just for transactions. Proud of the team for shipping this. phonepe.com/press/phonepe-…


#WATCH | India AI Impact Summit | Delhi: Rudra Chaudhuri, Vice President at Observer Research Foundation, says, "Yesterday I went and spent 90 minutes walking around the summit, and I think for me the biggest part of the summit was to see busloads of schoolchildren and college kids swarm the area, the expos, and ask all the relevant questions... That's what this Impact Summit is beginning to capture - a connection between the technology, which at the moment has totally outstripped the deployment, and people and if that bridge can be built through this summit, one way or the other, it's a great success..." He adds, "...We need a balance for innovation. If you look at the messaging and the actual templates coming out of the Indian government at the moment, it's very pro-innovation. But at some point, governments and regulation will catch up with this stuff. But that's a balance that has to be struck. We can't be over-regulating a sector that we don't understand."

