Shrooms on Golf

@midascabal 😹

This is the LARGEST dead cat bounce in stock market history.

@awakenowzone 👏👏👏

Conviction is one hell of a drug. It’s like Xanax. It keeps you calm through the highs and the lows. Today was my first six-figure day thanks to sticking with my $INTC conviction and not following the fearful crowd. A couple of years ago, I thought those six-figure gain screenshots all over X were mostly made-up BS. Now I realize they’re very real if you can identify the rare moments when the market completely abandons common sense. Those opportunities don’t come around often. But when they do, you jump on them… and you ignore the noise as long as your thesis remains intact. $INTC is the biggest common-sense investment opportunity in the market by a long shot. No Korean or 25-year-old hedge fund manager degen gambler getting liquidated is going to convince me otherwise. LETS GOO 🚀

@notthreadguy @counterpartytv @ThinkingUSD fantastic interview

my full interview with @ThinkingUSD: what happened to Leopold Aschenbrenner 1:18 hedge fund leverage 101 3:18 the Leopold thesis 7:39 Ken the Grim Reaper 11:31 greatest trader ever ? 15:37 how a margin call works 23:53 Citadel FUDs the market 27:11 leverage is the killer 35:33 who's left to buy ? 40:00 show me the money 42:38 why short HYPE?

@PTrubey it’s not just his leveraged longs being un “analyzed,” he was also short software. by the big boys rotating into software they both collapsed retail and at the same time hammered those short the opposite side of the trade.

Citadel is not the bad guy in this story. When you are investing billions and make 20x returns in 2 years, you attract the notice of all the hedge funds. It was obvious to everyone that Leopold had to be using excessive leverage to get those returns. Taking out a player who doesn't have enough liquidity to cover leverage and manage a downturn is so common on Wall Street, it's one of their basic tools to enhance their own returns. No, the person who should be blamed for Leopold's implosion is Leopold himself. Hedge funds do use *some* leverage themselves, but boy do they analyze the snot out of those positions to ensure what happened to Leopold doesn't happen to them. Leopold either didn't do that basic analysis or got it comically wrong. Players like Citadel actually *help* the market by taking out the yahoos who end up causing excessive market volatility through leverage. If you know you could get pounced on by the likes of Citadel, then you won't put yourself in a position to be pounced on and thus won't cause undue market volatility.

@Mr_Derivatives and how much was it down when the likes of mu and intc were down 40%? it’s relative.

Highly highly HIGHLY disappointed on a day like today $NVDA is up just 1.5%. Not good enough.

@RealJGBanks wow sounds like you’re really going to nail it 😹

DO NOT MISS BUYING THE BOTTOM When do we BUY AI again? History says the average midterm-year bottom forms between August and October. We’re entering that window now. At the same time, several AI leaders are testing major daily demand zones after months of selling: • $MU • $SNDK • $DRAM • $ARM I’m waiting for price to confirm that buyers are defending these levels. If they do, this could be where the next major swing opportunities begin. Wait for my signal. We will catch this together.

@DudeWhoInvests based on what? amazon smoking earnings and ratcheting up capex?

I think the stock market will be BLOODY GOREY RED TOMORROW. 🩸

@QC_Capitals this aged poorly

$MU GOING TO $600

@labasedetodo @RebellioMarket he’s a trader on the floor of the exchange, and that’s his number I believe.

@RebellioMarket Did anybody see the 588 on the dudes neck? What does that mean?

This Video Is Worth Millions:

@yosaycheese how are the stick figures my friend? is 60 coming 😹

$INTC @shroomsongolf You good bro?

@imnotharsh some institutional players sussed out the leverage situation rotated and are now moving back in at bargain prices. this guy is a narrative thread to captivate just like kitty etc. it’s real but not what’s causing the move.

Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness flipped from large $INTC calls to ~$159M notional puts in the Q1 13F. The fund ran leverage, just ate a sharp drawdown in the AI rout, and is now raising capital. If they close or cover that Intel short exposure on any rebound, the combination of short covering and dealer gamma hedging could add meaningful upside pressure. Not guaranteed. Not the main driver.
But a real asymmetric catalyst for Intel that the market is underpricing.
Q2 13F mid-August will clarify how much is still on.

@awakenowzone do it!!!!!!!!

The hardest thing isn’t seeing a 40% drop in 1 month, it’s asking for to give me the patience not to load up on more $INTC on margin (Korean Style)

@Beth_Kindig this is actually a great thing for these companies and their futures. to be growing revenue meanwhile spending on incomprehensible competitive advantages in the meantime.

Capex growth significantly exceeds cash flow growth for Big Tech, with $GOOG reporting the highest capex growth at 107%, followed by $MSFT at 84%, $AMZN at 79%, and $META at 45%. Operating cash flow growth ranged from 26% to 53%, highlighting the widening gap between AI infrastructure spending and cash generation.

@joecarlsonshow word!

This market is so weak. Selling Google after a blockbuster report. Selling Meta because of a deliberate one time EPS miss and faster than expected organic growth. Microsoft barely up 3% and still down 17% this year after an amazing report. Everyone racing for the exits because these companies are spending on capex to massively expand. Investors selling today don't deserve these companies. And they will get the price they deserve, much higher, when they want to buy back in years later.

@TKL_Adam great post

What's happening in South Korea's stock market has truly been one of the most incredible things to witness in decades. South Korea's KOSPI went from barely being in the top 15 largest stock markets to 6th in a matter of months, worth $5 trillion. 40 days later and nearly half of the country's market cap has been erased with an "emergency meeting" being convened by regulators. The next few months will be for the history books. Our outlook is summarized below.

@imnotharsh great post!

A quick Technicals view on $INTC - 7/29 Not that it even matters anymore when there is a broader, coordinated effort to sell / manufacture drawdowns for every bit of the semiconductor/AI trade. RSI(14): ~32.17 (with the secondary line near 39). Classic oversold threshold is <30; 32 is firmly in the zone and has been grinding lower through the July cascade. Not yet the sub-20 “panic” readings Intel has seen in deeper bear phases, but clearly stretched. Williams %R(14): -99.35. This is as oversold as the indicator can practically get (scale is 0 to –100). A close this close to the absolute floor means the current close is essentially the lowest low of the entire 14-day lookback. Readings below –80 are oversold; pinned near –100 is fully exhausted selling territory. Ulcer Index(14): 23.79. This is elevated. Ulcer measures the depth and duration of drawdowns from recent highs (higher means more “pain”). Values >10–15 already signal meaningful downside stress; 23+ reflects the sharp ~40% pullback from the late-June ATH (~142). High Ulcer readings often coincide with selling climax zones because the pain is already largely realized. TMO / TTM Squeeze: Deeply negative TMO (-87 / -85) with the squeeze line flat/near zero. Momentum is still firmly down, but the extreme oscillator cluster and squeeze compression frequently precedes a volatility expansion the other way. Broader context from Intel’s history and general oscillator behavior on high-beta semis: - When Williams pins near –100 and RSI is sub-35 while price remains above the rising 200-EMA (currently ~75), short-term mean-reversion moves of +8–18% over the next 5–15 sessions have been common in prior cycles. The best ones occur after a parabolic prior run (exactly the case here: the stock went from ~$19 lows in 2025 to 142 in under a year). - Pure RSI <30–35 events have produced similar relief rallies, though the magnitude depends on whether the broader tape cooperates and whether volume confirms the bounce. - Extreme Ulcer spikes (20+) after a multi-week waterfall often mark local exhaustion rather than the start of a new leg down, especially when they coincide with the other two oscillators. Intel can stay oversold longer than feels reasonable in strong sector rotations or if the broader market is risk-off. A clean bounce still needs a higher low and Williams/%R turning up through –80 and RSI reclaiming 40–45 with expanding volume. Chart & candle structure: - Series of large red daily candles with expanding volume (Jul 28 alone >148–150M shares). Lower highs and lower lows since the early-July breakdown. - Jul 28 printed a notable lower wick (low 83.10 and close 86.30), showing some responsive buying at the lows. Right now, it is retesting that 83 zone hard (screenshot low ~83.08). This sits right on the confluence of: - Lower Bollinger Band (~81.25) - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the big 2025–26 advance (~80) - Options max-pain cluster around 82.5 - The rising 200-EMA still well below (~75) Historically for Intel, these clusters have produced tradable bounces, often sharp ones, especially while the longer-term uptrend structure (above the 200-EMA) remains intact. The risk is another 5-8% flush if the 83/81 zone fails on high volume; the reward on a successful defense is a relief rally that can easily stretch back toward the mid-90s or the declining 20-EMA cluster. Watching for Williams to lift off –100 and for volume to expand on any green close as the first confirmation. Long. Live. Intel.

@growthrapidly depends how close to capitulation. short term, likely there today. scale big now. also taking different positions in the same sector w stocks that trade together is just cumbersome at best. take what’s got the most beta short term, with your strongest conviction.

As chip stocks like $MU, $INTC, $MRVL, and $SNDK continue to fall, would you start a small position now, or wait for a better entry before buying heavily? 👀

@Tickertalk1 September? More like tomorrow.

$MU I've been in the market for 17 years and we're going through a memory and storage products sell-off. $MU had a great run-up and will return soon. This is a good time to add a little. The shorts have a short-term hold now, but capitulation will happen around September. Be patient. Practice doing nothing. When $MU makes another $28-30 billion in net profits, it’s going back to $1200. Slow and steady wins the race. You have to believe. Never give up—let’s go!

@TheProfInvestor every year? please do give some examples?

My absolute pet peeve is people who call a minor 10% pullback on an overextended stock a "generational buying opportunity." Fast forward a few weeks, and that exact same stock is now down 50%. Let's be completely real: If a stock just ripped 200% into the stratosphere, a tiny 10% to 20% dip does not make it a generational buy. It just means it's slightly less overbought. Parabolic moves can easily pull back 40% to 50% without hesitation just to retest structural support. We see this every year.

@Tesla_Tizzler the opposite: bottleneck not demand was the issue.

$MU heading to $600 tomorrow. Complete meltdown after SK Hynix showed that memory demand is collapsing.