simayizhi

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simayizhi

simayizhi

@simayizhi

Guided by reverence for common sense and human nature. I see markets as reflections of both — and invest accordingly.

Katılım Aralık 2022
1.9K Takip Edilen142 Takipçiler
simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
Do Koreans really not sell and profit? In other words, do they believe that storage is the reliance that allows this world to continue functioning, until its market value surpasses Nvidia?
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
@xiaopacai008 不应该让儿童信息以这种残忍的方式暴露,这是违法的。
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孕之韵
孕之韵@xiaopacai008·
【辣妈哺乳】 更多完整版套图请查看主页置顶信息 #孕妇 #哺乳 #写真 #私房 #漏点 #走光
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simayizhi@simayizhi·
@robin_j_brooks However, the Strait of Hormuz is not just a transport route for oil; it is also one of the broader supports for the global economy.
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Robin Brooks
Robin Brooks@robin_j_brooks·
If you think oil prices will rise a lot further, you first need to explain why the current rise isn't enough. They're up 5x the rise back in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. The Strait of Hormuz is at most 3x Russia's oil exports. This shock is priced... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-high-wil…
Robin Brooks tweet media
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
@DarioCpx Regarding the Clarity Act, would you be willing to take some time to explain your personal views?
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JustDario
JustDario@DarioCpx·
No wonder I read Japan PM Takaichi got scheduled for an urgent call with Trump in the following hours
JustDario tweet media
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Desmond Shum
Desmond Shum@DesmondShum·
I would go out on a limb and call this report highly unlikely — bordering on BS. Three reasons. First, this is simply not how the CCP operates. Beijing almost never admits to espionage. Look at Larry Wu-tai Chin — 金无怠 — one of the most damaging Chinese moles ever inside the U.S. intelligence system. Beijing never rescued him or admitted he was its asset. More recently, in the Xu Zewei hacker case, Beijing again denied and denounced the allegations. That is the CCP playbook. So if Beijing does not openly rescue far more important intelligence assets, why would Beijing spend political capital on someone like Eileen Wang? Second, Jimmy Lai is far too valuable a card. Jimmy Lai is a global icon - symbol of Hong Kong’s crushed freedoms, CCP judicial repression, and the death of “One Country, Two Systems.” Eileen Wang, by comparison, is a very small fish. The idea that Beijing would trade Jimmy Lai — a world-famous political prisoner — for a local California political operator makes no sense. Third, Xi Jinping’s face matters. A lot. Even if some arrangement were being discussed, it would not be staged around a Trump visit when the world is looking at Beijing. That is self-incrimination with cameras rolling, and a spit in the face of Xi Jinping. If such things happen, they happen quietly and after the spotlight has moved elsewhere. Based on the CCP’s operating style, the relative value of the two people involved, and Xi’s obsession with face and optics, I would treat this story as fake news.
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Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports
💥Urgent Update: Xi Jinping’s team and President Trump’s advance team have reached an agreement to allow Jimmy Lai to leave prison on medical parole. The condition is that Xi Jinping demands the return of Eilleen Wang to China. Eilleen Wang has already resigned from her positions as Mayor and City Council member of Arcadia, California, and has agreed to plead guilty in federal court to the felony charge of acting as an “illegal agent of the Chinese Communist Party.” The above information was disclosed by Canadian writer and my trusted friend Sheng Xue @ShengXue_ca. Sheng Xue also asked: Why would Xi Jinping pay such a high price to get Eilleen Wang back? Her main role has been long-term infiltration, co-opting, and bribing of American politicians, especially high-level Democrats in California… Below is the show I made 15 months ago exposing Eileen Wang's deep connections with the CCP. The second photo was what I used in the show, showing this: Only one month after CCP agent Yaoning Mike Sun was named the executive chairman of the American Southwest Chamber of Commerce, the commerce opened a branch in Wuhan, China!!! This is a photo in a report about this event by Chinese media, Eileen Wang received an interview and gave a speech at the opening ceremony on April 7, 2019. Standing behind her is her campaign manager and finance manager, her fiancé and CCP agent Yaoning Mike Sun.
Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports tweet mediaInconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports tweet media
Inconvenient Truths — Jennifer Zeng Reports@jenniferzeng97

Astonishing discoveries! You won't know how badly and deeply the CCP's infiltration in the US is until you watch this! Evidence & Questions: Is Arcadia Council Member Eileen Wang Also a CCP Agent, Like Her Fiancé?

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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
김치溢价와의 결전이 시작되었습니다!
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
坦白讲,我实在无法相信,美国与伊朗签订一个协议,伊朗保证几年内不在发展核武器,然后双方各自宣布胜利。这可能吗? 这次军事行动最大的成果是帮助小哈梅内伊上台? 因为老哈梅内伊在第一天的行动中的几分钟内就被三十几颗炸弹炸死了。
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
@NoLimitGains 布伦特原油期货价格上涨逾8美元,至每桶126.09美元,创2022年3月以来最高水平。
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Kyle Sullivan
Kyle Sullivan@kylej_sullivan·
China outlines new labour protection plan for nation’s 200 million gig workers…big development for companies like Meituan/Didi. Will be harder to cheaply scale labor at the margin they’re used to. scmp.com/economy/china-…
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
We will see it .
simayizhi tweet media
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大满贯 👑
大满贯 👑@manguan235·
600万工程款被6台法拉利抵账,到底 谁才是那个大冤种?
大满贯 👑 tweet media
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simayizhi retweetledi
Keir Starmer
Keir Starmer@Keir_Starmer·
I know parents are worried about social media and its impact on their children’s safety. They rightly expect fast action. Today, I’m calling on senior leaders from X, Meta, Snap, YouTube and TikTok to step up. I will do whatever it takes to keep children safe online.
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
@EmmanuelMacron If this really works, it should have been achieved after the last meeting. The reality is that scheduling more meetings cannot solve the problem.
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Emmanuel Macron
Emmanuel Macron@EmmanuelMacron·
Yesterday, I spoke with Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, as well as with U.S. President Donald Trump. I urged the resumption of the negotiations suspended in Islamabad, the clearing up of misunderstandings, and the avoidance of any further escalation. It is essential, in particular, that the ceasefire be strictly respected by all parties and that it include Lebanon. It is equally important that the Strait of Hormuz be reopened unconditionally, without restrictions or tolls, as soon as possible. Under these conditions, negotiations should be able to resume quickly, with the support of the key parties concerned. France and the United Kingdom will also host a conference in Paris this Friday, bringing together by videoconference non-belligerent countries ready to contribute, alongside us, to a multilateral and purely defensive mission aimed at restoring freedom of navigation in the strait when security conditions allow.
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
过去的几十年, 伊朗,无数次威胁关闭霍尔木兹海峡,这种威胁,服务于哈梅内伊的既定议程。 今天,彻底消除这个威胁, 将会在长久的时间内,惠及包含中国在内的亿万东南亚人民, 也会给子孙后代留下一个可以预测且稳定的能源通道。 这至关重要。
simayizhi tweet media
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simayizhi
simayizhi@simayizhi·
真正把一大部分中国人的焦虑和无奈推到顶点的, 并非是张雪峰的死亡本身, 而是张雪峰死亡的消息, 将一种根深蒂固的焦虑和无奈推到了顶点。 疫情时期, 有很多人以一种极其残酷和悲壮的方式,失去了生命。 但就像今天看到的一样,速效救心丸的搜索量上升。 这部分人,其实并不思考死亡本身。
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罗玉凤
罗玉凤@Menghuanlangqi2·
这件衣服45美元,CK的牌子。穿我身上还挺有大牌的感觉😂,我不说谁也不知道多少钱。。
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iPaul
iPaul@iPaulCanada·
中国最适合养老退休的宜居城市
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Desmond Shum
Desmond Shum@DesmondShum·
Trump is dismantling and reshaping the global order right now. Disruption and chaos are built into any process this massive—old alliances fracture, institutions get sidelined, and power realigns through sheer force and leverage. You can either board the train and adapt to the new reality, or stand on the platform complaining while the world moves on without you.
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Kenneth Roth
Kenneth Roth@KenRoth·
Trump's lawless belligerence and indifference to international standards have made the public in key democratic allies favor a turn toward China, despite its own repressive indifference to international law. That's quite an accomplishment. trib.al/tl5jGYB
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uraly
uraly@uraly1107·
小道消息: 北京常务副市长夏茂林; 重庆市长胡衡华; 甘肃副省长雷思维; 正在接受调查
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Macro_Lin | 市场观察员
龙虾吃Token,Token吃芯片。这条食物链的终点,是一张六百多亿美元的账单 MiniMax的M2.5模型2月单日Token消耗量暴涨6倍,编程套餐消耗飙升10倍。智谱Coding Plan每天早上10点抢购。涨价30%,上线即售罄。中国大模型周调用量首超美国,5.16万亿Token对2.7万亿。 黄仁勋说,Agent的Token消耗是传统对话的1000倍。人会睡觉,龙虾不会。 但所有人在讨论龙虾,没人问一个更根本的问题:这些指数级激增的Token需求,是用多少AI芯片? 摩根士丹利上周发了篇60页深度,试图回答这个问题。 中国AI芯片TAM从2024年的191亿美元增长到2030年的670亿美元。GPU自给率从2021年的10%爬到2030年的76%。华为一家拿走63%国产份额,寒武纪11%,剩下十几家厂商分不到三成。而且2026到2027年,整个市场仍然是供给驱动。不是没人买,是造不出来。 报告最有意思的判断是:中国AI芯片的故事不是"追制程",是"用基建换纳米"。 MS画了一张中美AI九维雷达图。晶圆前道和HBM内存,美国明显领先。但电力供应、数据中心空间、政策支持,中国反而占优。仅看制程节点会高估性能差距,换成单位功耗和单位成本的口径,差距大幅收敛。中国利润率要求更低,电价更便宜,推理场景下TCO反而有优势。 这就解释了为什么MiniMax输出价格能做到Claude的十分之一。不只是模型层面的工程优化,背后是整条基础设施成本曲线在支撑。 估值上就更刺激了。寒武纪32倍P/S,摩尔线程139倍P/S,对应隐含收入不过3到5亿美元。英伟达才17倍。市场定价的不是盈利能力,是稀缺性。 MS给出的关键判断:2027年后产能释放叠加设计趋同,同质化风险急升,行业整合2到3年内大概率发生。 把两件事放一起看就清楚了。龙虾爆火证明推理侧Token需求可以指数级增长。MS报告证明供给侧产能在2027年前仍是硬约束。供不应求意味着有产能就有收入。但窗口会关。一旦产能不再稀缺,139倍市销率就失去了存在的理由。 Token正在变成新时代的电。中国正在用廉价绿电加极致工程能力,把自己变成全球AI推理的水电煤供应商。但这条叙事听着耳熟吗?政策扶持、产能狂飙、价格战、全行业亏损、最后剩者为王。 光伏走过的路,AI芯片大概率要再走一遍。唯一的区别是,光伏用了十年,这一轮可能AI芯片会用几年?
Macro_Lin | 市场观察员 tweet media
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