Simon Hinrichsen

You can now preorder my book (it’ll probably be out November) which is sadly quite topical - it’s a history of war reparations and how they’re paid. cambridge.org/dk/universityp…

My book is now out in paperback! It means you don’t have to break the bank to learn the history of war reparations, how they were financed in the past — and maybe learn a few lessons for the future. cambridge.org/dk/universityp…

@RajaKorman Ace man, huge get for Quincy. I was an avid reader even before. Congrats!

I’m really excited at this opportunity to combine my interests (that I post so frequently about) in financial markets; the IMFS; EM development strategies; globalization; and the weaponization of trade/finance with my Peacenik temperament (as in bio) at the Quincy Institute.

@KStevnhoej @koebenhavns_uni Tillykke Katrine!!! 💪🏽

Ph.D. in Russian studies! Yesterday, I successfully defended my thesis at the Faculty of Humanities at @koebenhavns_uni!

@pseudoerasmus A great thread, that I largely agree with. The shoddy methodology would have been enough to take it down if there wasn’t an overriding story that fit politically. I was reminded of a professor I had who said it was popular because it let politicians feel like they mattered.

@Brad_Setser Any thoughts on what’s driving the difference between Eurostat/BEA CA/TB data for Irish/US trade? @DanielKral1

Indeed. Note the large swing in 2020, which corresponds (ironically) to the end of double Irish tax structures -- Ending the double Irish effectively led to the Irish shoring of a lot of US companies --

@ThomasFunding @nicolai_kjaer @larsloekke @MadsBroberg Ideen stammer herfra (fra marts): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Forthcoming book review in the JEL: "When Nations Can't Default: A History of War Reparations and Sovereign Debt by Simon Hinrichsen" by Satayajit Chatterjee. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10…

@RivettiDiego @lteal @alvespina @SQuijanoEvans @TheoMaret @danielmunevar @upanizza (I am sympathetic to both sides of the argument fwiw). But I don’t think it is an excuse. It is a tool where there is big discreptancy and possibility of a proper boom, as was indeed the case of both Ukraine and Argy (‘01-07ish). Or a barbell (Zambia, copper prices).

@simonh_dk @lteal @alvespina @SQuijanoEvans @TheoMaret @danielmunevar @upanizza True, but it is often an excuse: DSAs are accused of overoptimism and low restructuring targets (Sri Lanka). Ukr GDP warrants are an headache: now trading at 50s, can be retired at 100, but,if restructured, valued >100 under CoT (PV of growth-inflated cash-flows discounted at 5%)

@lteal @RivettiDiego @SQuijanoEvans @TheoMaret @danielmunevar @upanizza Hurricane bonds

Statutory and Policy Measures to Enhance Private Sector Participation in Sovereign Debt Restructurings. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… a new working paper, by @DFacilides, @WaibelM09, @AnahiW and me.

@CardiffGarcia @M_C_Klein the de-classified section of 'economic issues' is a goldmine in general (cia.gov/readingroom/se…), e.g., this one on Soviet economic debt issues cia.gov/readingroom/do…

This 1986 CIA analysis on the Japanese government's unwillingness to consider a fiscal expansion that might, among other things, boost Japanese wages while reducing the trade surplus, is absolutely fascinating: cia.gov/readingroom/do…

@esben_schj @RuneStahl Kan varmt anbefales. (Man løber aldrig tør).

@simonh_dk @RuneStahl Har faktisk aldrig fået den læst. Der er fandme så mange bøger

Konservatisme er en reaktion på socialisme som revolution. Liberalisme er en reaktion på socialisme i regering Tilsammen blev de to kritikker grundlaget for “det borgerlige” 1/2

@esben_schj @RuneStahl I har sikkert begge læst, men det er min yndlingsbog om netop dette spørgsmål. amazon.com/Reactionary-Mi…

@RuneStahl Jojo. Men den konservatisme, der fortsatte rettede sig vel imod socialismen som (den) revolution (der var problemet).

@marcschack Har du et godt tip til den eller de bedste bøger om konflikten?

Super god indføring i konflikten og historikken i DR Congo:

@NathanTankus Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on it Nathan!

Very excited for this book. The review copy came very quick and they didn't even confirm to me that they were sending it. I have done a few presentations over the years about war reparations structuring the international currency hierarchy.

@ASPertierra @NathanTankus I asked but so far no (and tbf it os quite technical). But maybe if it sell very well with the paperback

@NathanTankus They do, though looking at the catalogue they have online not many One can always hope!

@zakavkaza ft.com/content/b2446a…

I could not disagree more with this take in the FT claiming that the West risks harming itself by seizing frozen Russian assets - there is no evidence provided for the claim, and it ignores the lack of blowback from introducing sanctions on Russia on west ft.com/content/2c917e…

@Brad_Setser @FTAlphaville @TheoMaret Great piece, Brad and Theo.

There is a lot in my new @FTAlphaville piece with @TheoMaret -- including the debt service table that should have been at the front of the IMF's own work on Zambia! I want to highlight two issues though ft.com/content/75f25f…

@marcschack @MaLChristensen @cordua_jarl @JKaarsbo hvor min research er at give et bud på, hvor store skader der rent faktisk er og historisk er blevet udbetalt, og bruge det til at estimere den gæld, som Rusland skylder. Hvis det giver mening?

@marcschack @MaLChristensen @cordua_jarl @JKaarsbo Hej Marc, fedt - det vil jeg se frem til at læse. Jeg hoppede lidt hurtigt henover det folkeretslige (mit område er ikke jura), men mit argument der er, at man kan finde en vej indenfor countermeasures (kapitel II her legal.un.org/ilc/texts/inst…).