Sinth

Assuming we get AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) what happens 10 years later?

The land darkens as a horrible alien monster fills the sky. “I have come to play games! You all must play my game. Let us begin.” “To begin, 1% of you must say ‘signal’. If you do not, all those that said ‘signal’ will die. What say you?!” The people ran in circles but a small crowd of hippies conglomerated and meekly shouted “signal”. “Sufficient!” boomed the voice from the sky, and the sky lightened. A week passed. The sky darkened again. “We will play again! Now it must be 10% that say ‘signal’.” The people milled. After some discussion the threshold was met, and life continued. “Ok now 20%!” Said the voice from the sky. The people felt braver now. This seemed to be working. A rowdy crowd shouted “signal”. and the voice was appeased. “50%!” Was the shout. People got right to work rallying their neighbors. It was easy. People felt good about themselves. They were the saviors of their planet. The guardians the warriors the knights. “Signal!” rose the cry and society continued. “75% now!” Boomed the voice. The usual portion went to work, but somethjng was off. Hesitation spread like a shiver. “Signal!” Shouted some confidently and then looked around in terror as others didn’t join them. Desperate pleas and a second wave of “signal” washed around. A great sigh as “I am pleased!” came from the sky. A week later and the sky turned black. “95% you will!” People were depressed. But one person shouted, “everyone! We just need to have no-one say signal! Then no one will die!” Another voice, “No we must all say signal! That is the way no one dies! We signallers are the true righteous. We have convinced masses to join us and have saved over 75% of the planet by our action. You must join us, we are obviously the right side!” The most resolute stood tall and held hands in a line. “We have come too far to give up. You may convince some but there’s no way you’ll convince everyone, and then their blood will be on your hands.” “Signal!!!” rose the rallying cry. All looked up waiting for the reply. “Sufficient” boomed the sky. “Now the final test. 100%!” In the awe inspiring, spine tingling, climax of a tabernacle choir “SIGNAL!!!” rose to the sky. Save for one voice. “It’s the rational choice! If they all just did it my way it no one would have died! They deserve it anyway for expecting people like me risk my life just so they can have their feeling of moral superiority.” “You have failed!!” Came the familiar thunder. A circle grew around the non-signaler. Everyone knew he would be dead in about 20 seconds. The question was who would move fast enough to get a satisfying blow before the crowd press honeyed movement and the body would be limp anyway. “Wait you moronic human fools!” Came the boom again. No sound less earth shaking would have stopped that murderous mob. “I’m not actually going to kill anyone! I’m not that crazy! I am just a missionary trying to strengthen the memetics of all these infant civilizations across the galaxy, and, well, I’ll also admit I’ve found nothing else is quite as amusing. But I digress. Let this be a lesson to you! If ever you are faced with a conundrum like this again you do not signal! A society that dies together is a society that dies. Live for yourself, live only for those closest to you, and your society will be strong. Groups will band together and their success will seem unbreakable but their lack of variation in outcomes will make them weak over time and they will fall all at once. Build your culture to prioritize the individual so you have the diversity to not all run off the same cliff at the same time. Do this and might even survive to become me.” And with that the horizon spanning monster shot into space and all the signalers were embarrassed but the all silently hated the non-signaler still. And they went back to their homes and their jobs but nothing felt quite the same because you just can’t ever match the adrenaline high of holier than though nearly mass suicide.

The land darkens as a horrible alien monster fills the sky. “I have come to play games! You all must play my game. Let us begin.” “To begin, 1% of you must say ‘signal’. If you do not, all those that said ‘signal’ will die. What say you?!” The people ran in circles but a small crowd of hippies conglomerated and meekly shouted “signal”. “Sufficient!” boomed the voice from the sky, and the sky lightened. A week passed. The sky darkened again. “We will play again! Now it must be 10% that say ‘signal’.” The people milled. After some discussion the threshold was met, and life continued. “Ok now 20%!” Said the voice from the sky. The people felt braver now. This seemed to be working. A rowdy crowd shouted “signal”. and the voice was appeased. “50%!” Was the shout. People got right to work rallying their neighbors. It was easy. People felt good about themselves. They were the saviors of their planet. The guardians the warriors the knights. “Signal!” rose the cry and society continued. “75% now!” Boomed the voice. The usual portion went to work, but somethjng was off. Hesitation spread like a shiver. “Signal!” Shouted some confidently and then looked around in terror as others didn’t join them. Desperate pleas and a second wave of “signal” washed around. A great sigh as “I am pleased!” came from the sky. A week later and the sky turned black. “95% you will!” People were depressed. But one person shouted, “everyone! We just need to have no-one say signal! Then no one will die!” Another voice, “No we must all say signal! That is the way no one dies! We signallers are the true righteous. We have convinced masses to join us and have saved over 75% of the planet by our action. You must join us, we are obviously the right side!” The most resolute stood tall and held hands in a line. “We have come too far to give up. You may convince some but there’s no way you’ll convince everyone, and then their blood will be on your hands.” “Signal!!!” rose the rallying cry. All looked up waiting for the reply. “Sufficient” boomed the sky. “Now the final test. 100%!” In the awe inspiring, spine tingling, climax of a tabernacle choir “SIGNAL!!!” rose to the sky. Save for one voice. “It’s the rational choice! If they all just did it my way it no one would have died! They deserve it anyway for expecting people like me risk my life just so they can have their feeling of moral superiority.” “You have failed!!” Came the familiar thunder. A circle grew around the non-signaler. Everyone knew he would be dead in about 20 seconds. The question was who would move fast enough to get a satisfying blow before the crowd press honeyed movement and the body would be limp anyway. “Wait you moronic human fools!” Came the boom again. No sound less earth shaking would have stopped that murderous mob. “I’m not actually going to kill anyone! I’m not that crazy! I am just a missionary trying to strengthen the memetics of all these infant civilizations across the galaxy, and, well, I’ll also admit I’ve found nothing else is quite as amusing. But I digress. Let this be a lesson to you! If ever you are faced with a conundrum like this again you do not signal! A society that dies together is a society that dies. Live for yourself, live only for those closest to you, and your society will be strong. Groups will band together and their success will seem unbreakable but their lack of variation in outcomes will make them weak over time and they will fall all at once. Build your culture to prioritize the individual so you have the diversity to not all run off the same cliff at the same time. Do this and might even survive to become me.” And with that the horizon spanning monster shot into space and all the signalers were embarrassed but the all silently hated the non-signaler still. And they went back to their homes and their jobs but nothing felt quite the same because you just can’t ever match the adrenaline high of holier than though nearly mass suicide.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

The land darkens as a horrible alien monster fills the sky. “I have come to play games! You all must play my game. Let us begin.” “To begin, 1% of you must say ‘signal’. If you do not, all those that said ‘signal’ will die. What say you?!” The people ran in circles but a small crowd of hippies conglomerated and meekly shouted “signal”. “Sufficient!” boomed the voice from the sky, and the sky lightened. A week passed. The sky darkened again. “We will play again! Now it must be 10% that say ‘signal’.” The people milled. After some discussion the threshold was met, and life continued. “Ok now 20%!” Said the voice from the sky. The people felt braver now. This seemed to be working. A rowdy crowd shouted “signal”. and the voice was appeased. “50%!” Was the shout. People got right to work rallying their neighbors. It was easy. People felt good about themselves. They were the saviors of their planet. The guardians the warriors the knights. “Signal!” rose the cry and society continued. “75% now!” Boomed the voice. The usual portion went to work, but somethjng was off. Hesitation spread like a shiver. “Signal!” Shouted some confidently and then looked around in terror as others didn’t join them. Desperate pleas and a second wave of “signal” washed around. A great sigh as “I am pleased!” came from the sky. A week later and the sky turned black. “95% you will!” People were depressed. But one person shouted, “everyone! We just need to have no-one say signal! Then no one will die!” Another voice, “No we must all say signal! That is the way no one dies! We signallers are the true righteous. We have convinced masses to join us and have saved over 75% of the planet by our action. You must join us, we are obviously the right side!” The most resolute stood tall and held hands in a line. “We have come too far to give up. You may convince some but there’s no way you’ll convince everyone, and then their blood will be on your hands.” “Signal!!!” rose the rallying cry. All looked up waiting for the reply. “Sufficient” boomed the sky. “Now the final test. 100%!” In the awe inspiring, spine tingling, climax of a tabernacle choir “SIGNAL!!!” rose to the sky. Save for one voice. “It’s the rational choice! If they all just did it my way it no one would have died! They deserve it anyway for expecting people like me risk my life just so they can have their feeling of moral superiority.” “You have failed!!” Came the familiar thunder. A circle grew around the non-signaler. Everyone knew he would be dead in about 20 seconds. The question was who would move fast enough to get a satisfying blow before the crowd press honeyed movement and the body would be limp anyway. “Wait you moronic human fools!” Came the boom again. No sound less earth shaking would have stopped that murderous mob. “I’m not actually going to kill anyone! I’m not that crazy! I am just a missionary trying to strengthen the memetics of all these infant civilizations across the galaxy, and, well, I’ll also admit I’ve found nothing else is quite as amusing. But I digress. Let this be a lesson to you! If ever you are faced with a conundrum like this again you do not signal! A society that dies together is a society that dies. Live for yourself, live only for those closest to you, and your society will be strong. Groups will band together and their success will seem unbreakable but their lack of variation in outcomes will make them weak over time and they will fall all at once. Build your culture to prioritize the individual so you have the diversity to not all run off the same cliff at the same time. Do this and might even survive to become me.” And with that the horizon spanning monster shot into space and all the signalers were embarrassed but the all silently hated the non-signaler still. And they went back to their homes and their jobs but nothing felt quite the same because you just can’t ever match the adrenaline high of holier than though nearly mass suicide.

The land darkens as a horrible alien monster fills the sky. “I have come to play games! You all must play my game. Let us begin.” “To begin, 1% of you must say ‘signal’. If you do not, all those that said ‘signal’ will die. What say you?!” The people ran in circles but a small crowd of hippies conglomerated and meekly shouted “signal”. “Sufficient!” boomed the voice from the sky, and the sky lightened. A week passed. The sky darkened again. “We will play again! Now it must be 10% that say ‘signal’.” The people milled. After some discussion the threshold was met, and life continued. “Ok now 20%!” Said the voice from the sky. The people felt braver now. This seemed to be working. A rowdy crowd shouted “signal”. and the voice was appeased. “50%!” Was the shout. People got right to work rallying their neighbors. It was easy. People felt good about themselves. They were the saviors of their planet. The guardians the warriors the knights. “Signal!” rose the cry and society continued. “75% now!” Boomed the voice. The usual portion went to work, but somethjng was off. Hesitation spread like a shiver. “Signal!” Shouted some confidently and then looked around in terror as others didn’t join them. Desperate pleas and a second wave of “signal” washed around. A great sigh as “I am pleased!” came from the sky. A week later and the sky turned black. “95% you will!” People were depressed. But one person shouted, “everyone! We just need to have no-one say signal! Then no one will die!” Another voice, “No we must all say signal! That is the way no one dies! We signallers are the true righteous. We have convinced masses to join us and have saved over 75% of the planet by our action. You must join us, we are obviously the right side!” The most resolute stood tall and held hands in a line. “We have come too far to give up. You may convince some but there’s no way you’ll convince everyone, and then their blood will be on your hands.” “Signal!!!” rose the rallying cry. All looked up waiting for the reply. “Sufficient” boomed the sky. “Now the final test. 100%!” In the awe inspiring, spine tingling, climax of a tabernacle choir “SIGNAL!!!” rose to the sky. Save for one voice. “It’s the rational choice! If they all just did it my way it no one would have died! They deserve it anyway for expecting people like me risk my life just so they can have their feeling of moral superiority.” “You have failed!!” Came the familiar thunder. A circle grew around the non-signaler. Everyone knew he would be dead in about 20 seconds. The question was who would move fast enough to get a satisfying blow before the crowd press honeyed movement and the body would be limp anyway. “Wait you moronic human fools!” Came the boom again. No sound less earth shaking would have stopped that murderous mob. “I’m not actually going to kill anyone! I’m not that crazy! I am just a missionary trying to strengthen the memetics of all these infant civilizations across the galaxy, and, well, I’ll also admit I’ve found nothing else is quite as amusing. But I digress. Let this be a lesson to you! If ever you are faced with a conundrum like this again you do not signal! A society that dies together is a society that dies. Live for yourself, live only for those closest to you, and your society will be strong. Groups will band together and their success will seem unbreakable but their lack of variation in outcomes will make them weak over time and they will fall all at once. Build your culture to prioritize the individual so you have the diversity to not all run off the same cliff at the same time. Do this and might even survive to become me.” And with that the horizon spanning monster shot into space and all the signalers were embarrassed but the all silently hated the non-signaler still. And they went back to their homes and their jobs but nothing felt quite the same because you just can’t ever match the adrenaline high of holier than though nearly mass suicide.

Amazing how lots of self appointed game theory experts confidently asserting that blue is the stupid choice. But every time this poll is run blue wins. Not only is the “game theory” answer predicting the wrong outcome, its explanatory power is based on it being able to predict the right answer. So it’s doubly wrong.

The land darkens as a horrible alien monster fills the sky. “I have come to play games! You all must play my game. Let us begin.” “To begin, 1% of you must say ‘signal’. If you do not, all those that said ‘signal’ will die. What say you?!” The people ran in circles but a small crowd of hippies conglomerated and meekly shouted “signal”. “Sufficient!” boomed the voice from the sky, and the sky lightened. A week passed. The sky darkened again. “We will play again! Now it must be 10% that say ‘signal’.” The people milled. After some discussion the threshold was met, and life continued. “Ok now 20%!” Said the voice from the sky. The people felt braver now. This seemed to be working. A rowdy crowd shouted “signal”. and the voice was appeased. “50%!” Was the shout. People got right to work rallying their neighbors. It was easy. People felt good about themselves. They were the saviors of their planet. The guardians the warriors the knights. “Signal!” rose the cry and society continued. “75% now!” Boomed the voice. The usual portion went to work, but somethjng was off. Hesitation spread like a shiver. “Signal!” Shouted some confidently and then looked around in terror as others didn’t join them. Desperate pleas and a second wave of “signal” washed around. A great sigh as “I am pleased!” came from the sky. A week later and the sky turned black. “95% you will!” People were depressed. But one person shouted, “everyone! We just need to have no-one say signal! Then no one will die!” Another voice, “No we must all say signal! That is the way no one dies! We signallers are the true righteous. We have convinced masses to join us and have saved over 75% of the planet by our action. You must join us, we are obviously the right side!” The most resolute stood tall and held hands in a line. “We have come too far to give up. You may convince some but there’s no way you’ll convince everyone, and then their blood will be on your hands.” “Signal!!!” rose the rallying cry. All looked up waiting for the reply. “Sufficient” boomed the sky. “Now the final test. 100%!” In the awe inspiring, spine tingling, climax of a tabernacle choir “SIGNAL!!!” rose to the sky. Save for one voice. “It’s the rational choice! If they all just did it my way it no one would have died! They deserve it anyway for expecting people like me risk my life just so they can have their feeling of moral superiority.” “You have failed!!” Came the familiar thunder. A circle grew around the non-signaler. Everyone knew he would be dead in about 20 seconds. The question was who would move fast enough to get a satisfying blow before the crowd press honeyed movement and the body would be limp anyway. “Wait you moronic human fools!” Came the boom again. No sound less earth shaking would have stopped that murderous mob. “I’m not actually going to kill anyone! I’m not that crazy! I am just a missionary trying to strengthen the memetics of all these infant civilizations across the galaxy, and, well, I’ll also admit I’ve found nothing else is quite as amusing. But I digress. Let this be a lesson to you! If ever you are faced with a conundrum like this again you do not signal! A society that dies together is a society that dies. Live for yourself, live only for those closest to you, and your society will be strong. Groups will band together and their success will seem unbreakable but their lack of variation in outcomes will make them weak over time and they will fall all at once. Build your culture to prioritize the individual so you have the diversity to not all run off the same cliff at the same time. Do this and might even survive to become me.” And with that the horizon spanning monster shot into space and all the signalers were embarrassed but the all silently hated the non-signaler still. And they went back to their homes and their jobs but nothing felt quite the same because you just can’t ever match the adrenaline high of holier than though nearly mass suicide.

The land darkens as a horrible alien monster fills the sky. “I have come to play games! You all must play my game. Let us begin.” “To begin, 1% of you must say ‘signal’. If you do not, all those that said ‘signal’ will die. What say you?!” The people ran in circles but a small crowd of hippies conglomerated and meekly shouted “signal”. “Sufficient!” boomed the voice from the sky, and the sky lightened. A week passed. The sky darkened again. “We will play again! Now it must be 10% that say ‘signal’.” The people milled. After some discussion the threshold was met, and life continued. “Ok now 20%!” Said the voice from the sky. The people felt braver now. This seemed to be working. A rowdy crowd shouted “signal”. and the voice was appeased. “50%!” Was the shout. People got right to work rallying their neighbors. It was easy. People felt good about themselves. They were the saviors of their planet. The guardians the warriors the knights. “Signal!” rose the cry and society continued. “75% now!” Boomed the voice. The usual portion went to work, but somethjng was off. Hesitation spread like a shiver. “Signal!” Shouted some confidently and then looked around in terror as others didn’t join them. Desperate pleas and a second wave of “signal” washed around. A great sigh as “I am pleased!” came from the sky. A week later and the sky turned black. “95% you will!” People were depressed. But one person shouted, “everyone! We just need to have no-one say signal! Then no one will die!” Another voice, “No we must all say signal! That is the way no one dies! We signallers are the true righteous. We have convinced masses to join us and have saved over 75% of the planet by our action. You must join us, we are obviously the right side!” The most resolute stood tall and held hands in a line. “We have come too far to give up. You may convince some but there’s no way you’ll convince everyone, and then their blood will be on your hands.” “Signal!!!” rose the rallying cry. All looked up waiting for the reply. “Sufficient” boomed the sky. “Now the final test. 100%!” In the awe inspiring, spine tingling, climax of a tabernacle choir “SIGNAL!!!” rose to the sky. Save for one voice. “It’s the rational choice! If they all just did it my way it no one would have died! They deserve it anyway for expecting people like me risk my life just so they can have their feeling of moral superiority.” “You have failed!!” Came the familiar thunder. A circle grew around the non-signaler. Everyone knew he would be dead in about 20 seconds. The question was who would move fast enough to get a satisfying blow before the crowd press honeyed movement and the body would be limp anyway. “Wait you moronic human fools!” Came the boom again. No sound less earth shaking would have stopped that murderous mob. “I’m not actually going to kill anyone! I’m not that crazy! I am just a missionary trying to strengthen the memetics of all these infant civilizations across the galaxy, and, well, I’ll also admit I’ve found nothing else is quite as amusing. But I digress. Let this be a lesson to you! If ever you are faced with a conundrum like this again you do not signal! A society that dies together is a society that dies. Live for yourself, live only for those closest to you, and your society will be strong. Groups will band together and their success will seem unbreakable but their lack of variation in outcomes will make them weak over time and they will fall all at once. Build your culture to prioritize the individual so you have the diversity to not all run off the same cliff at the same time. Do this and might even survive to become me.” And with that the horizon spanning monster shot into space and all the signalers were embarrassed but the all silently hated the non-signaler still. And they went back to their homes and their jobs but nothing felt quite the same because you just can’t ever match the adrenaline high of holier than though nearly mass suicide.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

Two buttons lie before you Button A - if you can get 50%+1 of people to agree with you, no one dies Button B - if you can get 100% of people to agree with you, no one dies

1. My children, family, and friends are pushing this button too and there’s enough controversy around this choice that I am sure at least one of them will push blue. So my only chance to save them is to push blue. 2. I’m predicting that enough other people will feel the same way that there’s a good chance we can beat the red team and all come out of this alive.

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?

im confused by people saying the right answer is pressing red. the good outcomes are 51% of ppl press blue OR 100% of people press red. the second is obvs way less likely