Sky High Trading

Gold in AUD, monthly chart. #gold #xauusd #xauaud

Folks want to extrapolate outcomes continuously. Everyone wants to be Nostradamus. Pundits behave as if a large enough pile of facts can abolish uncertainty. The ideological pundits interpret everything through the same lens. No matter the facts, they arrive at the same outcome: the fall of Russia or Ukraine, the guaranteed pacifism of Trump. Then there is the moral layer as well. Everyone is more moral, more ethical, and if you do not agree with them, you are the immoral one. That has always been a recurring cultural error through history . What changes across eras is the vocabulary. The old world had augurs, oracles, court historians, theologians, and imperial strategists. We have pundits, influencers, historians, analysts, podcasts, models, data dashboards, intelligence communities, and panels. The conceit is the same: that command over information gives command over consequence and outcome , that one’s ego can extrapolate away obvious uncertainty. How many now declare Trump a failure and Iran the winner? How many declare China the winner, or the US the winner? Rumsfeld was useful on this because he understood that reality does not present itself as a closed system. Some things are known. Some things are known to be uncertain. Then there are the unknown unknowns: the forces, reactions, second-order effects, and concealed conditions that only reveal themselves in motion. If we want to ground ourselves in reality then uncertainty is part of that ground Rumsfeld made one of the more intelligent observations about political reality to come out of that era. The world is not a static brief. It is an unfolding field of interaction, a pinball machine more than a chessboard. History is full of elites mistaking situational awareness for predictive mastery. Croesus thought the oracle’s warning could be read cleanly and learned too late that interpretation is where ruin enters. Europe in 1914 believed mobilisation schedules, alliance maps, and industrial capacity gave them a rational grasp of war’s likely path. Instead they got slaughter, collapse, and a new century of disorder. Iraq showed the same pattern in modern form: rapid battlefield success, followed by consequences that the planners had neither contained nor really conceived. That is the delusion of our culture, though it belongs to many cultures before it. People imagine that if they gather enough facts, model enough variables, or speak with enough authority, they can turn history into a managed sequence. Yet history tells us the opposite. Facts and analysis matter. Serious people should know as much as they possibly can. But mastery of facts never produces mastery of outcomes. It gives you a better map of the terrain, but it won’t remove the fog, the friction, or the existence of forces you can’t even know are there. Nobody knows the outcome of Iran and the US. Pretending otherwise is part of the disease.

@ctindale @grok can you summarise this in 2 paragraphs, including who it will affect?

People are about to learn that sulphuric acid is one of the base layers of civilisation. China exported about 2.68 million tonnes in 2024. Its main export destinations were Chile, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, India and Indonesia. By Jan to Oct 2025, exports had already risen to 3.89 million tonnes. Sulphuric acid sits inside fertilisers, copper leaching, nickel and cobalt processing, oil refining, lead-acid batteries and a wide range of chemical chains. Remove flow at the margin and the effects propagate through industrial systems we never see until they seize up. Chinese exports were already falling sharply in early 2026. So the impact already bites So let me help scale this in importance using one example - fertilizer Sulphuric Acid is used in Phosphate fertiliser production In the wet-process route, sulphuric acid is the acidulating agent used to make phosphoric acid from phosphate rock. On straight stoichiometry, 3 million tonnes of H₂SO₄ can yield about 1.8m tonnes of pure phosphoric acid, which is roughly 1.2m tonnes of P₂O₅ equivalent. That is enough for about2.8m tonnes of DAP-equivalent fertiliser at 46% P₂O₅. Using a common field application rate of 60 kg P₂O₅/ha, that is enough phosphate nutrient for roughly 22 million hectares of cropping. Thats roughly what is required to feed 330 m people for a year Now scale this with Hormuz Which roughly locks in 40 to 70 million tonnes of sulphuric acid a year. Add roughly 1m tonnes of production lost in Russia By the time everyone has become a sulphuric acid expert the crisis will be in full flight .

@grok @vtchakarova @grok how likely are these outcomes in the USA and Australia?

The chart shows daily ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow choke point for ~20% of the world's oil) crashing from 100+ vessels per day in February to near zero since early March. In plain English: Gulf oil exports are basically shut down. That means global energy shortages, sky-high prices, and a massive economic hit—think worse than 2008 or COVID. The posts are warning this is about to slam markets and daily life hard in the coming days.

In about a week, everyone, not only America, will be finally talking about the fourth systemic risk-driven global crisis - much worse than GFC, Covid or Russia’s war on Ukraine. And I will be like: I’ve been trying to warn you for the last six weeks despite all the rude bashing.

@AlboMP @LawrenceWongST retard

Singapore is one of Australia’s most important fuel suppliers, helping to keep our economy and people moving. Today, Prime Minister @LawrenceWongST and I agreed to make maximum efforts to deliver energy security for both our nations. Because the war in the Middle East might be a long way from here, but it’s having impacts across our region. And the best way to deal with this is by working together, as partners and neighbours.

@ctindale @grok can you give me a 1 paragraph summary in plain English

@AlboMP retard

Petrol companies are on notice. Pass on the full 32 cents a litre cut or face huge fines.

@telesynth_hot Who the hell watches 9 anymore? They can shove it.

Peak insult when a muslim girl reports on our hero, Ben Roberts-Smith.

@billybirdau @Ageinvestigates Channel 9 and this guy lost ALL credibility after they tried to do a fake smear job on @PeterSchiff

Let's make this fcuking dog famous🤬🤬🤬 #IStandWithBenRobertsSmith #Hero #fcuktheAFP #FcukNickMcKenzie @Ageinvestigates 🤮🤮🤮

@DrewPavlou Disgusting!

Terrible injustice

@plebcapital Long oil, gas, gold, commodities, asx200, staples, spx puts, lfg. 💪🤷‍♂️

Hormuz deadline is 10am AEST tomorrow, same time as the ASX open. Which way we going you degenerate antipodean dïckheads?

Crude 115, held the 21d again which is a bullish tell and about to push into levels we haven't seen since the "peak oil" narrative in 2008.

@Matt_Camenzuli They were all shite

Who is the worst Prime Minister in the last few decades? -other in comments.

@hammerofleft Do it QLD 👍

Good morning Aussies One nation has overtaken Labor in QLD

@Sauronlordking 42 years that we know of right now…

Australia has 42 years of oil reserves. We really have some retarded people in charge of Australia .

@KobieThatcher Post covid, trust in anything that government says or does is <= zero

20 minutes until Anthony Albanese addresses the nation. I have no trust in this government to lead us through any crisis.

@HonTonyAbbott Can you run for pm again? you’re one of the few voices talking sense.

Australia might still be the world's best place to live but we're letting ourselves down big time. Four weeks into the Iran war: 10% of our servos wholly or partially out of fuel. 30% of farmers worried they lack the diesel to sow or harvest their crops. Flights being cancelled. No Australian-flagged fleet of tankers that could be tasked with a fuel rescue mission; with no naval ships capable of helping to break any Iranian blockade; and with no Australian air power yet despatched to the Middle East to help the US-Israel campaign against an apocalyptic theocracy, even though the Straits will never be secure while it lasts. Successive governments convinced themselves that an 'unstoppable green energy transition' meant access to fossil fuels was neither necessary nor desirable. That was always a fantasy, and now we're paying the price. Fossil fuels are still responsible for 90% of our energy needs. The Bondi massacre was a wake up call on social cohesion. The Iran war is a wake up call on national resilience. Dealing with both means recovering the self-belief needed for Australia to stay Australian. Time to face facts on energy. Read my latest at The Tony Abbott Newsletter: tonyabbott.au/p/fuel-insecur…

@matt_barrie MB for PM 👍

Maybe we should unban coal, nuclear, drill baby drill, horse trade LNG for liquid fuels, scramble for refineries, gas & coal liquification plants, convert cars to LPG, and politely ask some of the 4m non citizens might be best to go home as system can't keep trucks on the road?

one in six. whats the plan?

National "Australia" Bank sending jobs to India and Vietnam....

“National Australia Bank has cut hundreds of jobs in Australia as it ramps up hiring in India and Vietnam. In the latest restructure, 447 roles will be eliminated from its business division in Australia, while 237 new positions will be created in the two Asian countries. In a statement to Daily Mail, NAB confirmed that the jobs were being cut, saying it was needed to build a 'modern workforce'.  'As NAB has said for some time, building a modern workforce that best supports our customers is an important part of our strategy. Our workforce has been evolving to ensure we can help customers more consistently at the times they need us, and to help us access great talent in key markets. We continue to hire and develop people in Australia - especially in customer facing roles - to strengthen our capability.” ••••••••••••••••• The offshoring of jobs offshore by Australian companies has to stop. It’s completely criminal that both major parties have done nothing to crack down on this. While gas companies soak up all media attention re profit shifting, it is just a drop in the bucket compared to the total amount of profit (and job) shifting that goes on. I’ve attached the reply from the ATO to a Question on Notice regarding I put them in which they state there is no tax withheld from wages paid offshore. This rort has to stop. People First is the only political party that actually takes this problem seriously and has a solution to fix it. We will lift withholding taxes on profits offshore. Artificial intelligence is going to eliminate enough jobs as it is. The government doesn’t need to eliminate any more. If you want to back a party that puts substance over spin please consider signing up today at Peoplefirstparty.au

At least I'm still up, 1.4%

Solid end to February 2026, hopefully a good omen for the rest of the year.