Hamin Jeon

$OPEN 🔥🔥🔥🚀🚀

When the $SPX was below 6500, I forecasted that a rebound would come in early April, and gave you the structurally really important levels to monitor. When $FNMA was still under $5, I signaled that I was long, because — as I’ve been explaining since last November, and even more so since August — Trump will need the GSEs in the near future, and they will have to be recapitalized. This is a longer-term position. Regarding the Iranian conflict, I wrote that the temporal peak of aggression would occur during the March OpEx week, and that I expect the next wave in the second half of April. That’s why I flagged a short backwardation trade in oil, as front-end volatility was strongly bid. (These were free signals. I update the levels in my blog. Link in bio.) I continue to draw your attention to the three major risks: ▫️Japanese yen carry trade unwind risk, as Japan will be forced to raise rates. This is already clearly visible. ▫️AI bubble burst risk, since $NVDA is significantly over-leveraged, infrastructure has been massively overbuilt relative to end-user demand, current capacity, and future regulations. Additionally, TSMC’s latest earnings report already showed slowing expectations starting from Q2. ▫️Geopolitical risk, because the East holds inflation as a weapon, and China will not let this go. There is currently a diplomatic breather, but a new wave is coming soon. It will quiet down by summer, but in November China itself will directly threaten America along the First Island Chain, with strong propaganda attacks aimed at inciting unrest, dissatisfaction, and uncertainty inside the US. This has been well prepared, and apart from me, almost no one is talking about it. There is enormous information noise right now. Most people are either pretending to be smart or simply chasing the news and sentiment. I, however, already predicted these events and their timing last year — roughly since February — as they gradually unfolded. Read my previous posts (and stop asking grok everything. You have your own brain...) I will give one more signal when I see it… and after that, I’m done being active on Twitter😘

Let me explain the reality of a short-term rebound, as well as why I believe the upside bands I have marked are highly unlikely to be broken... The volume of systematic selling is decreasing, and the market is underpricing the chances of a relief rally. As I wrote on Sunday, Trump will do everything to shift the narrative and sentiment in a positive direction; moreover, the spring tax refund season is approaching in the US, and equity selling by pension funds will also quiet down by April. This narrative management is also evident in 0DTE positioning. I constantly see ratio put spread selling, which creates short speed exposure in the dealer profile; this essentially absorbs downside realized volatility and thus curbs momentum. Thus, if the put hedges cannot outperform theta decay, traders will close them out, which generates further buying pressure. Alongside this, I see continuous downside zomma and vomma supply in the weekly positioning, which functions as a synthetic circuit breaker and prevents downside hedges from properly capitalizing on downside momentum. This will result in a relief. At the same time, stagflation risk has deepened, and these effects have only just begun. The market is trying to reprice the hard-landing narrative and is preparing for a higher interest rate environment in the future. Also, systematic funds will remain net sellers because the volatility environment will stay high for a while longer; since they use trailing calculations, the current higher-volatility days will remain in the calculation for a few more weeks, which keeps risk metrics high and induces a net cautious positioning. This will keep the markets under pressure. We can see that the structural $SPX levels I previously marked and are continuously defended by the market are acting as strong support, particularly the August levels right now. This means the market still believes the administration can manage the risks. However, as I've been saying, I expect another wave of geopolitical risk by May, specifically spiced up with domestic political issues and a slowdown around the AI sector (see my free post on $NVDA and $TSMC). Furthermore, let's add the hidden left-tail and kurtosis risk of the yen carry trade, which I have also written extensively about since last December. And I cannot stress enough that this Iranian conflict is not over either, while China is slowly building the first island chain blockade, and due to the information war, the market cannot properly assess the risk. These factors will produce enough extra sentiment pressure for the top to start forming. So, I expect a short-term relief into the first half of April and another leg down, then a quick rebound and top into summer. This is how it looks to me right now. It is also important to emphasize that meanwhile, Trump is continuously losing his credibility and support, which jeopardizes the entire Trumponomics system and the April rebound. Where is the money flowing? Nobody wants to invest in the hundredth AI chatbot. The money is going into what physically keeps this alive: electrical grids, server farms, cooling systems, and the stable power generation required for them (a mix of natural gas, nuclear, and green energy). A massive competition is underway for the ownership of copper, lithium, and rare-earth metal mines in the developing world. Meanwhile, investors are increasingly exiting the tech bubble, earning interest on their cash in short-term government bonds, buying defensive stocks (oil, healthcare), and waiting out the storm so they can buy up physical assets cheaply afterward.