Herschel Bird

@Brnas05576799 @erdistler @jonathanstettin The NYRA mid-Feb move to limit CRW’s to just 6 bets/sec seems to have cut them back significantly; of course, NYRA business is now off pretty dramatically.

@erdistler @jonathanstettin @slangcam How about getting CRWs off the pools? How about removing CRWs direct access to the tote? How about rebates to CRWs are the same with the retail bettor? How about we stop pretending the betting public is not getting fucked?

Want answers? pastthewire.com/elvis-did-the-…

@RaworDie Despite occasional scores, over long run CAW’s (30-40% of pools) break about even with their massive profits from 10+% rebates; thus they pay no takeout leaving that burden to all others in form of reduced payouts. This large increase in effective takeout buries players.

THE PRICE IS WRONG EP #14: Derby Post Mortem and Elvis legacy lives in betting (5-4-26) x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@damon_thayer @ChurchillDowns @BreedersCup @keeneland @KentuckyDerby Breeder's Cup takes over entire weekend so host track nets nothing. CD bottom line corporation.

It’s time @ChurchillDowns is back in the regular rotation for @BreedersCup Weather concerns are a false argument because they are identical to those @keeneland The CDRT team has done a fantastic job building out @KentuckyDerby week. Over $1 billion in physical plant improvements means top class hospitality & the facility can fit everyone from the sponsors & VIPs to the regular fans. Not one temporary facility will need to be built. The new turf course has settled and is getting rave reviews. There is a substantial tax credit in place when the event comes to Kentucky. It’s time to bring the #HorseRacing world championships back to the home of the Derby in 2028.

@jonathanstettin A decade ago, NYRA was allowing CAW to bet for a few seconds after gate opened. Currently there is no reason to think this kind of chicanery continues tho cannot guarantee it never happens anywhere.

@jonathanstettin Parimutuel wagering is supposed to be equal for all. The point missed here is that the ability to bet those huge amounts in a few seconds is limited to a handful of CAW’s; no one else allowed & that, unlike handicapping acumen. makes it unfair.

@Pullthepocket Rebates started @ downtown Las Vegas Club in 1995; originally they were a flat 10% on all bets even including minus show pools which stopped after huge show bets on Cigar & Inside Information/Heavenly Prize entry in Breeders Cup.

I heard a story recently about rebates first being introduced and the smart guys allowed it as a blanket percentage rebate, not by bet, despite protests from the people wanting rebates asking for tiers. So 20% tris and 14% win t/o got the same rebate. It wasn't smart.

@jonathanstettin The current math (CAW’s raise effective takeout close to 30%) makes game almost impossible for any other serious long term handicapper.

@jonathanstettin For anyone other than CAW, It is impossible to place huge bets in a short interval (not 1 mtp; rather few seconds); also note that the exacta was smashed at same time. Direct into pool hookup required which is unavailable to all others.

@EJXD2 @KentuckyDerby @OaklawnRacing @EVDRCH @mtrgaming @LouisianaDowns With good weather & 2 more races than last yr, NYRA down $4.5 mil. This is combo of continuing decline which started post Saratoga & recent significant loss CAW $ post throttling.

North America handle for @kentuckyderby week was about flat, though w/ 14 more races average was down slightly. @OaklawnRacing had a great closing week. @EVDRCH continues to do gangbusters; bettors don't care @mtrgaming's ML is atrocious. Good opening day for @LouisianaDowns

@racetrackandy @craigbrogden @UlwellingRacing @PatCummingsNTA @marshallgramm Unlike most businesses, racing has little incentive to invest in modern tech b/c these $ would not increase business. Main example is wagering but even look at photo finishes where rest of world & Olympics far superior.

The tote system used in Horse Racing is NOT secure. It's a steaming pile of shit. @craigbrogden doesn't think so. He says I'm making shit up. How about reading it craig? @UlwellingRacing @PatCummingsNTA @marshallgramm x.com/i/grok/share/7…

@ClassicJpow For all the glittering all star talent, this NY team is woefully thin at pg past Sabrina.

You can see at the 12 second mark that Ionescu's left ankle tweaks here. This is also the same ankle that she had a third degree sprain on days into her pro career back in 2020 bubble.

@GhostofSwiftH Overlooked aspect of CAW debate is the incredible disadvantage that on track horseplayers suffer. Bettors at home at least have access to technology but betting at windows like old days is a killer.

CRWS have destroyed the sport. The tracks have allowed this. Retail players now need to take a stand going forward walk away. The payouts are dilluted/ late odd changes. hit a pick 3/4/5 now and its so watered down. The game cant live without CRW Crw cant live without retail

@PeterBerryPicks Overlooked aspect of CAW debate is the incredible disadvantage that on track horseplayers suffer. Bettors at home at least have access to technology but betting at windows like old days is a killer.

@PeterBerryPicks #1 & 2 nails it. In their pursuit of raising churn (reminder they seek to break even and collect rebates) CAW’s bet pretty much every race @ every track. It is impossible to obtain inside info on hundreds of races every day; particularly when bots, not humans, do all the betting.

@Jackpotkimm It’s taken decade + of allowing CAW abuse, but NYRA’s (remember they r non profit with slots revenue) throttling has shown path to reducing CAW play (it is now down in NY); however the cost is significantly reduced handle.

Industry tout is still talking about "projected odds" 🤡🌎🤦‍♂️caws.

@nonwinnersof2L @ChurchillDowns @Jackpotkimm It is simple math; of course CAW’s lose many races but in long run they cause significant takeout increases for all other players who, as #’s show, are getting ground to dust.

@nonwinnersof2L @ChurchillDowns @Jackpotkimm The issue is NOT that CAW’s have winners, but rather that, using special edges, they make up 30-40% of pools & over time break about even thus paying no takeout which leaves burden on all others.

No one posts when CAWs overplay a horse (see @ChurchillDowns R5) & lose! Litigation got pounded late 5/2 gate to 8/5 final odds (predicted by will pays) & ran 3rd. By estimation, CAWS lost 150K in win pool. No outrage from @Jackpotkimm? DM him & ask for fair & balanced posting!

@Jackpotkimm Race 2 CD; win pool $972k; #2 gets late CAW money (drops from $49 to 43); runs strong 2nd with winning exacta very small.

Blackrock needs your money.

@stoolpresidente Ky Oaks ($6.8 mil Win pool): last flash #4 gets popped from 9.7/1 to 7.7/1; finishes 3rd. CAW’s don’t always win.

No regrets with #LovelyGrey, still the best day ever #KentuckyOaks

@jcpick5 Ky Oaks ($6.8 mil Win pool): last flash #4 gets popped from 9.7/1 to 7.7/1; finishes 3rd.

I’m on race 12 and I’ve seen the same thing for every race. You can’t beat em, they are pounding every horse just to break even and get their 25% rebate. 15% on millions is real $