Snek🐍

4 years ago

You hesitated to buy $100 sneakers, but instantly spent $1k -$15k on NFT shoes. You never ran before, yet you were out running in the rain just to “earn.” Early users made fortunes. Late users became exit liquidity. Now the shoes are worth $5, and the token is down 99.7%

The onchain trading card market is going to 10X from here

Hantavirus is incredibly deadly. One of the only reasons that we don't have an issue with it, is we've never seen any outbreaks manage to evolve human-to-human transmission before. It's always been rodent-to-human contact. If we have H2H in Hantavirus that ship needs to be stranded at sea until every, single, person is cleared. Because that would make the previous pandemic look like childs play.

Every time I look at my Pokemon collection the slabs have made another ATH. Pokemon is continuing to hit ATHs because of a high velocity feedback loop: 1/ Gacha/mystery companies are the price insensitive buyer. They need constant inventory to fuel pack production. 2/ Their buying floor raises the expected value (EV) of sealed product. 3/ Higher EV = more mystery pack sales = more profit to buy more slabs. This also feeds through to more people scalping new sets, drying up that supply and helping to keep modern prices artificially high. The high supply of modern graded cards isn’t an issue for now, because these companies are the marginal buyer and continue to drive it higher. Tokenization has massively increased the pool of buyers for mystery packs, which is also a big part of the story here. There is no top until the consumer further weakens (later this year) and stops buying the mystery packs, which leads to a kind of mechanical unwind forcing these companies to offload inventories or be sitting on massive losses for years (the modern slabs that have huge supply), as there was no organic collector at those ATH prices. Make no mistake, it will happen.

If you make a NFT of a real pokemon card, and the card itself gets destroyed in a fire tomorrow, you still have the same asset. Because the token still exists and is in limited supply just as before. Nothing has changed. What NFT is doing to the concept of asset, few understand.

You will live on the AI slop farm. You’ll have 10,000 acres and your front door will lead directly to a small 8x8 foot swamp. Three horses will drink from the water, with decapitated jockeys on their backs. One of your horses will be the longest horse in the world. Your fences will kind of veer off into the grass from time to time. There’s three shutters on some of your windows and a shutter to the left of your front door. You have no driveway and you own no Gucci bags. You are happy.

There is a lot of opportunity in the TCG space right now. Most people just aren’t connected. I’m starting a small group to change that. Reply if you want in.

pokemon cards are overvalued (modern) pokemon cards are undervalued (vintage)