snowballist

“Life is like a snowball. The important thing is finding wet snow and a really long hill.” — Warren Buffett

@GavinSBaker @bubbleboi @BenBajarin @GavinSBaker thanks for generously sharing your insights. I've learned a ton from you! But serious question: How do you make time to engage on X, do the interviews, and still stay at the top of your investment game?

@bubbleboi @BenBajarin Sure!

Nvidia’s “AI hyperscaler” revenue grew 191% YoY in the April quarter ex China (effectively all hyperscaler). Broadcom has guided to 143% YoY growth for their AI segment in their next quarter. Interesting.

@qcapital2020 Is the bottom in?

@SebJohnsonUK And yet, he doesn't seem to care about the money at all.

He will probably make more money from investing in anthropic than selling DeepMind. Crazy

@Xeer People who care about jewellery can't be taken seriously.

Yes, I was genuinely told today by someone on the timeline that a simple Seiko 5 looks way better than anything Vacheron has ever made. It was at that point, I realized I just can’t take some of you seriously.

@SouthernValue95 @FundamentEdge People who can't prompt/orchestrate blame the AI.

@FundamentEdge Still worse than my intern at modeling

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI: “Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago. And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days. These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society. When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.” This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

@Bkclaims Isn't there a wide range of SPVs? Eg A cap table VC firm offering a co-invest to its LPs seems quite different than a second or third layer SPV being marketed on a retail platform?

If this is true it will lead to the mother of all lawsuits

@evrgn11112231 There is a disconnect between popular accounts and the serious investors on X. Popular accounts focus on engagement. Serious investors focus on insights and alpha. It is rare for someone like @GavinSBaker to do both.

@avipat_ Did @yuris respond?

This was Luel's reply to this tweet... x.com/tryluel/status… insane lmao, i literally thought this was a fake account for a second because they claim 500,000 users and you would expect this to have more followers but no this is their real account linked in the bio of their other company page too. you can't make this shit up.

General Catalyst just co-led a $31.5 million seed round into a blatant rip-off of my company, Kled. (skip to 40 seconds if you want to skip context) I would typically not speak on things like this, but this level of blatant copycatting is egregious and completely unacceptable, and needs to be made an example of. This is one of hundreds of YC startups who have conducted this disgusting behavior. Unimaginative slop that continues to get rewarded due to nepotism.

@crux_capital_ Try reading the comments on any Financial Times article related to AI companies. There’s a whole other world out there!

It blows my mind that there is a side of X that isn’t heavily positioned in AI Infra

@The_AI_Investor That’s not somebody that woke up a loser!

Lol, so Jensen is still angry about the Dwarkesh podcast.

@qcapital2020 I agree except for the last sentence. The ability to lean on someone else's conviction is what separates a great portfolio manager who can leverage the team around them from merely a great individual analyst/stock picker. Knowing when to lean into that is a skill in itself.

For me the best attribute of a successful investor is knowing when facts change and admit they’re wrong and move on. This is how you limit a small loss from becoming a monumental one. Cutting lossing short is crucial for any serious investor. The second best attribute is letting winners run, water the flowers and cut the weeds , never the other way around. Good ideas don’t come often but when they do, let them run. Adding to a winner might seem counterintuitive but often the right thing to do. The third best attribute is being an independant thinker. There’s no shortage of mkt opinions in 2026 (LLM’s , Substacks , fake financial gurus, etc..) to be able to take a step back and really focus on yourself and sticking to your comfort lane will always be the best outcome. Cherry picking someone else’s conviction is always a recipe for disaster.

@Midnight_Captl Who are you debating? Nobody has ever said otherwise.

People have gotten way way over their skis, thinking $INTC is going to compete with $TSM EMIB is good tech, Intel might fill up their fabs to the brim But there’s only 1 king of the Fabs and it’s not Intel. Any other take than that is pure delusion IMO

@Bkclaims @grok Aside from employees, isn't it reasonable to only count direct cap table investors? If you alternatively count every beneficial owner down the chain, then there could be millions. Eg a VC fund could have many LPs including pension plans with millions of beneficiaries.

Apparently @grok thinks OpenAI only has 65-70 investors - who really believes this?

@illyquid 🤪

@snowballist I believe that’s how a stock market works. Some people own the shares and they sell it to you.

One of the earliest on $tsem I believe. And the whole thing was posted on X a few days later too.

@TBU12345678 Most investors would view that as an opportunity, not a shame. You must have an extremely short time horizon.

last thought for a bit: - it’s a shame that the greatest companies in the world have become funding shorts bc they can “only go up so much” - we instead have decided to gun the tip of the spear of garbage under the guise of “leverage” to the theme - I of course am being forced to play this game by the market, but I think this is like the definition of dysfunctional and I think there are serious ethical and societal concerns that I have with this distribution of capital - obviously, we need to raise rates materially from here as a country but won’t do this is our reality for the foreseeable future

@vkhosla Why even respond?

I love the fact you hate everything about me. Helps me characterize you

@The_AI_Investor Why is he wearing extra Cheetos dust today?

Trump - "you're going to see oil prices drop and you're going to see a stock market which is already at the highest point in history, go through the roof." Remember what happened after the tariff crash?

@The_AI_Investor When was this?

Elon basically said AI will drive most valuation creation in the future, specifically mentioning Google and Nvidia.

@SultanAlJaber How are you proposing to achieve that?

The world is already 1 billion barrels short, because of the closure of Hormuz. 1 billion barrels. That is the arithmetic of extortion. Every day the Strait is held hostage, the costs go up... for families, farms, factories and economies around the world. Return freedom of navigation. No conditions. No delay.