@southofconsensus

India enters the big 5 in manufacturing toppling South Korea. At current growth rates, even considering rupee depreciation, India will displace Japan to become the world's third largest manufacturer (> $1 trillion) by 2029. Also, 1960: $3 billion -> 2015: $328 billion 2015: $328 billion -> 2025: $781 billion So India has added as much in manufacturing in the last 10 years as it added in the last 70+ years.

Indians are blaming Infy/Murthy/Nandan for a lack of home-grown LLM. But that blame is misplaced. Infy/Murthy/Nandan could never start an AI company. They had money and they could have fund something. But that again, is their money and why should they risk it? The real culprit here is Amitabh Kant and other IAS like him. These are the people, why I left India and started two companies in the US. These are the people, why much of Indian talent left to work for US based companies. And these folks did well. Let's say the government gives me $10B and ask me to set up an AI lab in India. Am I qualified to do it? YES. Will I do it? HELL NO And you would ask why? Some would say that I have a cozy life in the US. Some would say, I have deep connection in the US, including family. All of that is correct but does not pin point the reason why I wont start a company in India. The real reason is Babu. Unlike, many In India who think competing for 1000 seats using some bullshit essay writing contest makes Babu some wizard, I have not come across one, I will hire as an analyst. Under no circumstance, I am gonna report to a babu (Happy report to Dharmendra Pradhan or Smriti Irani though). Also, under no circumstances, I will accept a position where I am unable to fire and put an IAS in jail if they reported to me and indulged in some corruption. Till this babu problem is fixed, no NRI would come to India. If I were the CIA or CCP, trying to ensure that India does not gain AI independence, I would make every effort to protect Babu fiefdom.

Why is it that whenever india and US appear close to a trade deal the Deep State ensures that there is concerted criticism of US ? Just asking

The Mission has learnt of an incident involving an Indian Flagged Mechanised Sailing Vessel Virat 1, off the coast of Oman, reportedly embarked with 14 Indian crew. Search and Rescue is being coordinated with the Omani authorities and vessels in vicinity of the incident.

Sir, it that had been the thinking in the 60s, we wouldn't have built the Nuclear bomb. The same thinking would have prevented us from developing the cryogenic engine. We have to start somewhere. Sarvam AI is a fantastic start. The larger IT services companies must start investing in R&D.

Thought provoking oped by on why India's R&D underspending has no single villain by CEA Dr Anantha Nageswaran -A captive billion-plus domestic market kills the competitive pressure that forces innovation. - A colonial legacy that favoured trading over manufacturing - Premature financialisation (before building the productive depth) via importing the shareholder-value doctrine's short-termism without ever having earned the productive capability that Western firms financialised away. -Democracy itself operating as some kind of a structural tax on long-termism

I don’t understand the widespread outrage among many Indians over America’s indifferent reaction to the killing of three Indian sailors on a foreign ship. The same voices were recently celebrating India’s deliberate low-key welcome and send-off for Marco Rubio. As if “putting him in his place” was some kind of diplomatic victory that would send a strong message to the United States. It did send a message, just not the one we intended. Marco Rubio is not a junior minister from a minor country. He is the United States Secretary of State, the second most powerful figure in the U.S. administration after the President. There are smarter, more effective ways to register displeasure than a public diplomatic snub broadcast for the world to see. Rubio and his colleagues said nothing at the time. They simply waited for the opportune moment. Some Indian “experts” were even urging Prime Minister Modi to skip meeting Rubio altogether. That would have sent an extraordinary signal to the Trump administration. The hard reality is this: unless you are as powerful as the United States or China, you cannot set your own rules and expect others to simply accept them. You might do so in your own backyard, but not on the global stage. Pretending otherwise is living in a fool’s paradise. Chest-thumping works in election rallies, not when dealing with powers far stronger than you. I’m no admirer of American foreign policy. I never have been. At the same time, I cannot help but envy their brazenness: the ability to send Marines into another country, kidnap a president, and walk away with a clear message that says: “Go fuck yourself. We are the United States. Try and stop us.” The fact that nobody has the guts to stop them explains exactly why they behave this way. Diplomacy is not about feelings or optics for domestic consumption. It is about protecting national interests with clarity, dignity, and realism. You play the game with discipline, communicate firmly but preferably privately, and avoid unnecessary public humiliation. Leave the jingoism and chest-thumping to the general public. I can say what I want because I have no skin in the game. Keyboard warriors can rant freely. But policymakers and those who claim to have the government’s ear cannot afford the same luxury. When dealing with the world’s most powerful country, a dose of cold pragmatism is essential. Publicly embarrassing the Secretary of State was always likely to invite a response. If you want to play in the big leagues, you must learn to absorb a few punches without whining, and worrying about the optics because of your vote bank. And if we think tearing down posters of the U.S. President on the back of auto-rickshaws or burning his effigies will actually send a message to “evil America,” then we are no different from our immediate neighbours to the east and west. Wake up and smell the coffee.

To put it bluntly, since 2017, India has chosen the worst of the available paths. By aligning itself with the US, it has obtained almost none of the resources that would strengthen its strategic autonomy and has instead grown more dependent. By confronting China, it has lost manufacturing capital and technology that could once have been acquired effortlessly. Counter-intuitively, these flows of capital and technology—though they appeared to deepen dependence—were in fact the essential foundation for Atmanirbhar Bharat. India now finds itself stranded between the two powers and exposed as collateral damage, as Marco Rubio puts it, in their strategic contest. This has left it vulnerable to American pressure on multiple fronts—tariffs, trade in Russian oil, killings in the Strait of Hormuz, and access to advanced AI models. Washington did all the above with little concern for India’s basic dignity or core interests. The roots of this grand misjudgement lie in India’s long-held belief that the US would always remain dominant and that the safest course was therefore to stand with the strong. That assumption is now being questioned even inside the Trump administration, throwing India’s strategic planning into disarray and leaving it without credible contingency plans. Three uncomfortable realities have become clear: 1) an America gripped by anxiety is unlikely to offer its partners meaningful support; it is rather more inclined to treat partners as expendable assets to be drawn upon when needed. Yes, India is simply seen as the bloodbag. 2) The path dependence created by long-term reliance on American financial systems, software ecosystems and geopolitical arrangements has become a potent instrument of leverage precisely because India has few realistic alternatives. 3) for reasons of elite izzatl and face-saving, Indian policymakers have so far refused to undertake the necessary recognitive rerouting—above all, to seriously contemplate the possibility that China may be prevailing in the broader contest and to adjust its choices accordingly.

Open challenge, Sir… We can do it in $2 billion within three years… Please don’t give us US figures…. Photonic chips today give us 10 times better processing at 1/100 the power a H-200 consumes. The foundational model needs talent which can be managed to be brought together… In fact, I expected you to announce a “Pai LLM Prize” of $250 million to the first team which creates a foundational model…. Announce competitions which can assist India take the West denial head on… Create the entropy that will yield benefits which a demographic dividend India could gain from !!!