Emilian

You touched on this in the post, but a lot of companies want to do business with the government. There's plenty of construction companies, IT companies that work only with the state winning a bunch of contracts. They wouldn't survive without that. If you know somebody on the inside, like a mayor or a local councilor you can pretty much win any gov. contracts. You might need to setup a no-show or no-work job for somebody's cousin though.

The issue with Romania is that despite insane elite human capital (you will see that most tech or finance companies in Europe and the US have Romanians in their lead engineering or board positions), the political ruling class is probably of the lowest quality in Europe (bar Bulgaria). Natural resources, a well educated elite and great strategic position, with a really well developed industrial base, Romania is growing despite severe mismanagement in recent years. Most entrepreneurs and business people here avoid at all cost to work with the state as the justice and fiscal systems are so byzantine and weaponized that you become a target just by cooperating. So they try their best to avoid and comply with ANAF, avoid any politician or government bureaucrat and work with the local population and external investors and markets (the locals being extremely hard working people). You end up having these "household" companies then that finance the media and get juicy construction, energy or consulting contracts and management of state firms, which provide inefficient services and goods and further clog the economy. If the hold of the security services on the economy and the government apparatus would subside with a judiciary and fiscal code overhaul, I think Romania has the potential to become one of the largest EU economies. But again, being in politics is a toxic and dangerous affair, you won't see Matei Zaharia from Databricks taking role in parliament (neither will you see Teo from Twitter lol) so we are where we are

Corruption is everywhere in Romania. You will not be doing business without paying somebody: be it the mayor, his cronies, or various government agencies. Most wage growth happened pre-pandemic. After that I haven't see much going on. Public employees such as teachers did get a 20 or 30% bump in 2024 which also skews statistics. Stock market lacks liquidity outside of top names (BT, Petrom, Romgaz/Transgaz etc.). It is also much smaller than Poland. Corruption is rife at these companies with plenty of no-show or no work jobs. Huge demographic problems, population getting older, not enough workers.

In so many of these metrics where Poland is ranked 1st - Romania is often right behind (or ahead). But you rarely hear about it. Examples 👇 - Polish average salaries grew 2x in last 10 years. But it grew 3x in Romania. - Adjusted for inflation, Poland's income per capita is up 90% since 2004. Romania is up near 140% (top in EU). x.com/EU_Eurostat/st… - Polish equities index $EPOL had an amazing last 12 months up 30%. But Romanian equities index #BET is up 88%. - Most international financial headlines on Romania talks about it's deficit situation. Poland's deficit is no better but we rarely hear about it. x.com/MacroJason/sta… - Romania hasn't defaulted or restructured a sovereign bond in 93 years. Poland did so 44 years ago. linkedin.com/feed/update/ur… - Poland's English proficiency is impressively ranked 15th place globally. But Romanian is ranked 11th. (Similar on IT talent per capita). - Poland is one of the more energy independent countries in the EU. But Romania is the largest nat gas producer in the EU. x.com/MacroJason/sta… I'm still developing my thesis on why Romania is so over looked relative to Poland by international investors. Some existing ideas 👇 - Lower quality governance and institutions (though the reality is that over a long enough timeline, the quality of the government reflects the quality of the people) - Polish cities and infrastructure is shiny and modern. Romanian infra seems at least 30% behind. You sense it from the moment your land in the airport. - Gypsies really caused a lot of damage to Romania's reputation abroad. - Overall lower sense of civic duty, discipline and reliability across the society. More 'leaving things till the last moment' and corner cutting mindset. (Maybe Poles are better with these things as they traded with Germans more historically). Despite the above, I still see deep value in certain Romanian assets vs Poland. If you followed my account for a while you know what I'm doing with my own portfolio (gradual rotation from Poland to Romania since 2022 👉 x.com/MacroJason/sta…) On top of above, there is a crucial area that I think Romania (and Balkans) has a higher potential of leading Poland in over the coming decades: geopolitical flexibility in a multipolar world. Will leave it to a future post.

@MacroJason Building management is at least 100 euros a month.

If you can install an air conditioner without anyone's approval - then you live in 'real' Eastern Europe. You can't in Poland and Czechia. Hungary is somewhere in between. In Central Europe you give up more soft freedom vs Eastern Europe but (arguably) get more order and civility in return. Sticking with the housing example of someone who owns a flat in a communist era block in Romania vs Poland: In Romania, you would pay €20 / month for building management. You don't expect them to do much. You can renovate your flat without pre-approvals, install an AC that's permanently dripping water to the streets or glaze your balcony. Most commie blocks in your city looks like the image on the left. In Poland, you would pay €60> / month for building management. You need their permission for installing an AC or glazing your balcony (which in many cases gets denied). If you carry out a renovation they disapprove of, they'll alert government authorities and someone shows up with the power to give you a huge fine and force you to un-do the renovation. In return, most commie blocks in your city looks like the one on the right - tidy (due to strict balcony glazing and AC rules), renovated insulated facades and some fancy ones even with solar panels on the roof.

@stevehunsaker1 Probably lost his shine when he peddled NFTs to his followers. "So hear me out this is the best opportunity, you have to buy these Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs..It's images, but it is all on the blockchain"

You know who I haven’t seen in probably 2 years? Gary Vee. I feel like my content consumption or algorithms have drastically changed in the last 1-2 years

@yourealazyfvck What about self employment taxes

If you’re an American with a remote job or online business that makes less than $182,000 per year Just fucking leave LOL Pay yourself FEIE and deduct your rent / living expenses under up until the deduction threshold and go enjoy your life and stop complaining

@Rainytuesday3 @HTTGTCL_NPC @AdrianP_doc Sure it is. Keep living in that fantasy.

@springmerchant @HTTGTCL_NPC @AdrianP_doc That’s a normal morning in one state in the US, let alone the whole country

I'm Romanian and this doesn't affect me at all. But, Christ, are American such docile hogs that they stand to be robbed like this? What a stupid country

@totalnogdth2 @LucianSarbu Nu se vrea nici la gunoi, nici la curatat stradal, nici la inrijit de batrani, si multe altele.

@springmerchant @LucianSarbu Sa zicem ca e adevarat. Daca nu vrem sa muncim la Glovo si Bolt, atunci sa se inchida firmele astea.

Voi știați că remiterile lucrătorilor străini din România au depășit deja 2 miliarde EUR/an, adică peste 10 miliarde RON? 2 miliarde EUR/an care zboară din țară și care adâncesc, și ele, deficitele cronice și structurale. În acest timp, șomajul intern crește, și totuși autoritățile continuă să emită o grămadă de permise de muncă pentru străini, în loc să încurajeze angajarea românilor din țară, eventual repatrierea românilor din străinătate. Pur și simplu nu are niciun sens economic ceea ce fac ăștia. Totuși, când îi privești în ochi, pro-ieuropenii îți vor zice cu gura plină că (numai) lor le pasă de economie și de reducerea deficitelor... 😐 Dar poate că ăsta e și sensul acestui non-sens. Să nu aibă sens economic, ci din alte puncte de vedere.

@exastrissci @og_Stefan_H @AdrianP_doc Just VAT fraud is around 8 or 9 billion dollars.

@springmerchant @og_Stefan_H @AdrianP_doc Are you saying Romania has more money than the US? 😂😂😂

@ergonautas @og_Stefan_H @AdrianP_doc You do realize just VAT fraud is in the order of billions of euros? Then you have energy fraud (Hidroelectrica), insurance fraud (CityInsurance + Euroins moving money to Bulgaria), special pensions etc.

@springmerchant @og_Stefan_H @AdrianP_doc Trillions. Why limit yourself when you are making numbers up ? Go big Trillions of dollars.

@annexpol @PaulConRO Yes, it's much better than a decade ago.

@springmerchant @PaulConRO Its a lot cleaner than it was few years ago. But yes, its still dirty. But you make it sound like its New Orleans 😂 There’s a bunch of isolated cases.

Dirt cheap?! Erm..

@LucianSarbu It's the truth though. Just ask young people if they want to work at McDonalds, or Mega Image stocking shelves or at a restaurant. They all feel like those jobs are beneath them.

@springmerchant E cea mai ieftină scuză.

@HTTGTCL_NPC @AdrianP_doc Do you really want to go that route? We've had a pregnant woman shot and killed in broad daylight, Mafia style car bomb in Arad, Mario Iorgulescu escaping justice, Vlad Pascu skirting the law etc.

@springmerchant @AdrianP_doc Mass shooting in the US few days ago. after another one 10 days ago.. larp harder.

@og_Stefan_H @AdrianP_doc The corruption in Romania is putting BILLIONS of euros in the pockets of a lot more men. It's a bit more spread out.

@springmerchant @AdrianP_doc No we dont. And whatever corruption is happenong isnt putting BILLIONS of euros into one guys pocket.

@blu_iello @PamelaBies I just had somebody zoom in on a sidewalk in Chicago to find a stain and declare that it's filthy. By that standard, the area around the milk vending machine is a waste dump.

@springmerchant @PamelaBies Asta-i un fel de nod în papură 🤣 Cred că e suficient de curată zona dimprejur. Rezonabil. Asta în cazul în care nu ai plănui să mănânci de pe jos; în caz contrar îmi e greu să înțeleg remarca ta.

West: $8 pasturised organic milk at wholefoods Romania: 1.5 litres of fresh raw milk on the side of the road like it's 1970 for just 10 Lei ($2.00)

@AshenArmour @PamelaBies I don't have to zoom in to find actual shit on sidewalks in my European city.

@springmerchant @PamelaBies I had to zoom in considering you don’t even see the trash you send lmfao Americans are filthy yet they don’t notice it.

@AshenArmour @PamelaBies If you're going to zoom in on sidewalks to find some stains then you already lost.

@springmerchant @PamelaBies Wow so clean!

@AshenArmour @PamelaBies Very clean indeed.

@annexpol @PaulConRO In the city proper you have the train station and the area surrounding it..full of glue sniffing individuals. An entire underground parking was taken over and full of garbage right next to a school.

@springmerchant @PaulConRO Like what? I bike in Noua daily which was arguably the roughest area in Brasov. Its spotless.