Spruce Point Capital

I am pleased to announce that on February 18, 2025 Spruce Point Capital Management was ranked #2 in Diligent's 2024 short seller watchlist. cc: @diligentHQ

$IPX #IperionX received a regulatory inquiry from its poor price action overnight in #Australia which indicated that investors are starting to ask questions about its accounting. But, that perhaps wasn't the most alarming news for its future prospects. Lynas Rare Earth $LYC.AU, a legit mining company, just took the lead on supplying the U.S. government with an announced $96m supply deal for the Pentagon. So where does that leave IPerionX's Project Titan? We think the answer is clear to us: no where, with an impending impairment as the most likely project direction.

$IPX who could have guessed? #problems #accounting #restatement #risk

Funny, not funny but our forensic report did call out issues with $IPX's #IperionX and its PP&E reporting and now a massive "typographical error" in PP&E.

$IPX #IperionX the company to "revolutionize" the #titanium industry price target cuts at B.Riley $58>$52 and Roth $71>$74. Keep cutting it gentleman.

$NVA #NovaMinerals wants to be a U.S.-listed company and leader in #antimony. Ok, yes, that's a noble goal. Notice they have not yet filed their Half Year financials with the @SECGov but did so in #Australia. Still no CFO announced. The Stibium prospect drilling, which they say is among the highest grade antimony globally, was suspended until the spring according to a one sentence disclosure in Australia. Now, if you are the @DeptofWar and need a reliable antimony supply chain, how might they feel if weather can disrupt reliable access for 5 or maybe 6 months? This project seems like a long long shot to us. #skeptic

$IPX story starting to look more impaired in our view. No updates on the status of "prototypes" with customer "orders". No feasibility study, significant cash burn, disclosure of a legal claim for $5.8m, $400k of raw material on the balance sheet hardly indicates any serious commercial activities. $3 price target is generous on this one. #titanium #stonks #iperionX #promotion

$REZI great quarter guys... errr ... still no guidance on what the pro forma company looks like, so how credible is the "non-gaap" earnings guidance?? The one thing that should frighten the value investors was the statement saying to expect ZERO cash flow growth

Oh, yes! Some fun and insightful FOIA documents on $NVA #NovaMinerals from #Alaska. Is it typical to have a consultant with a PhD specializing in environmental matters craft press releases for a public company and make quotes for 80yr+ old mayors? Just seems to lack that authenticity we'd prefer to see. #gold #stonks #promotion

Last week we challenged Nova Minerals (Nasdaq/ASX: $NVA) to explain who is their "Competent" and "Qualified" Geologist after providing photographic evidence that indicates he did not appear as a graduate of Krivoy Rog (Ukrainian University) in 1992 as he claims. The University did not even offer a master's degree. Now, Nova is saying that they have his degree certificate but is not providing any photographic evidence to back up what he says. Notice now that they are also changing his last name from ending in "dee" to "dy". We challenge Nova Minerals to provide photographic evidence of his diploma. Also, it would be helpful to know during what time period and where did he work at Oz Minerals and Oxiana as this company had a bribery scandal in Cambodia 2006-2009. Nova called us out for not contacting Vannu even though they can't spell his name correctly and he has no public profile. That being said, Nova did not respond to a representative who inquired about speaking with Vannu. #gold #antimony #novaminerals #degreeverification #australia #geology #alaska CC: @DeptofWar DPA Award Title III

It's interesting to see a $NVA director named in litigation with two former Stratton Oakmont / Monroe Securities (spinoff) brokers. Stratton Oakmont = "Wolf of Wall Street". Reminder, these are only allegations...

Let us not forget our concerns with $IRTC in our critical report last year. Investors should be rattled by this disclosure #DOJ seeking information and documents Zio AT. - I think it is a negative quant signal #bearish.

Hmmm $NVA - a developer of an Alaskan mining project with claimed 9M oz of #gold resources + #antimony - chose what appears to be a Laotian geologist with three different last name spellings, who studied in Ukraine. Makes perfect sense when there are plenty of geos in the US and Canada who I bet would be eager for this work and could actually physically go to the project site. Evaluating Ukrainian educational degree claims is not so easy unless you can send someone there to inspect the books and records. Vannu where are you?

Houston we may have a serious problem. Meet $NVA = Nova Minerals a #gold #antimony developer in Alaska run by Australian mining entrepreneurs. We have serious concerns with management, the Board and shareholder connections here. But, the biggest problem is the Company's "Competent" and "Qualified" Person and the attestations made with the SEC. The Head of Ukraine's Private Investigative association believes he does not have the education he claims. His name appears in press releases dating back to 2021. The Company has received @DeptofWar awards, but did it base its decision on this "qualified" expert? And if so, is the financing now at risk? Full report at sprucepointcap.com

It's an absolute necessity to do background checks on management and board members before investing in a public company. In the mining and exploration industry, it's even more critical to go deeper and look carefully at every single geologist evaluating a #gold #silver #copper #antimony #lithium #titanium resource. There is no greater example of what could go wrong investing in the exploration sector than what happened at Bre-X Minerals nearly 30 years ago. Bre-X was a darling that swiftly collapsed when it was revealed that it had no gold at all and the lead geologist was doctoring the results. Tomorrow, we'll profile a Company where we have serious concerns, not only with the associations and behavior of insiders, but also the man in charge of validating all of its critical results. Join us at sprucepointcap.com

$RELY CEO stepping down less than a year after our report.

$DKNG not so hot, prediction markets eroding long-term value of sports books like $SGHC

Following our #gaming successes with $DKNG and $GENI meet Super Group < $SGHC > Ltd, an opaque and complex structured company based in Guernsey. Based on our forensic review, we believe they sold a minority stake in their high margin South African subsidiary but continue to claim 100% ownership and include the financial results in their reporting. The company has reported multiple material weaknesses and recently dismissed its auditor. We believe the Company's EBTIDA is inflated by not including a non-controlling (minority) interest of $30m+. The Company is exposed to weakening fundamentals such as rising taxes and regulatory costs, along with exposure to the growth of prediction markets like @Polymarket and @Kalshi. Financial estimates are contracting and at 4x-6x multiple, we see 20%-50% downside risk. sprucepointcap.com/research/super…

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@lilnickysmith My most loyal fan!

Short coming tomorrow from @sprucepointcap ... Multi-billion dollar company... youtube.com/watch?v=SECVGN…

I've been waiting more than a decade to receive a thank you email from a Company subject to one of my short reports. You are very welcome $RELY. I approve this message.