Squaretower

funny you say that

@matthew_sigel We wrote about this about a month ago, using trends from our data x.com/squaretower_/s…

H100 rental prices are up only since Claude 4.5 Opus launch

Our H100 spot rental price index has been trending up much further before mid-Nov. There are lots of potential reasons, but a bigger reason for spot + short-term reserved prices spiking is buyers paying for immediate supply because future supply availability is uncertain.

"This turns compute from a fixed constraint into an actively managed portfolio." - CFO OpenAI, today "All clouds will need new forms of portfolio optimization that fits their risk profile, capital structure, and financial engineering strategies." - Squaretower Research, three days ago

With @StorkOracle we are able to bring critical datasets to 72+ organizations, enabling Squaretower’s compute data to power new products that underwrite hundreds of billions of dollars in growing compute risk. Compute is the most critical commodity of the next century. More than ever, we need transparent data and tools to understand how this commodity will shape and form economies of the future. This starts with Squaretower’s proprietary datasets, benchmarks, and research. If you’re a team interested in data access — whether for understanding compute pricing or for new products — reach out.

We've reached a milestone of $20.2 million notional volume traded on our compute index. AI compute markets are still missing the basics: transparent benchmarks, rapid price discovery, and risk transfer tools, despite GPUs becoming the single biggest and most volatile line item for today's most successful companies. Pricing + hedging exposure to the most important asset of the next century should be straightforward.

Squaretower in @MessariCrypto 2026 thesis for launching the first ever compute derivative — the next wave of startups, AI labs, and infrastructure providers need novel markets & infrastructure to unlock the trillion-dollar opportunity in compute commodities

H100 rental prices have been surprisingly volatile in the last few months, according to Squaretower data. The demand floor is rising, but so is uncertainty. And H100 demand is likely strengthening A100s, as buyers slide down the curve when access is low or costs are high.

@MomaBera @bubbleboi gpu go brrr

@bubbleboi Try trading computer at @squaretower_

It’s so hard to get a job when trading semiconductor stocks with leverage pays more.

today on @tbpn, @BernsteinRasgon says - compute demand side shows no signs of weakening - hyperscalers are clearly offloading risk to the neoclouds - most of capex is still being funded by free cash flow ($1.4t), NOT debt ($800b) - nvidia basically reporting low sales on its $500b order pipeline for blackwell & rubin in 2026 - is "probably not" AGI-pilled

Great piece by @jongall45 covering the rapidly growing compute markets space. Squaretower provides the data, tools, and insights to make these new markets possible.

@MauiBoyMacro the key here is that the tail is very, very long biggest players will keep winning. everyone else trying to get a slice of the pie will keep losing to the prices they set

“.. His conclusion is very stark: not just that an economy already at stall speed will fall into recession as both the data-center and wealth effects plateau, but that they’ll reverse, just as in the dot-com bubble did ..” 👇🏼

@DKThomp there's so much regional arbitrage here

Data centers and AI are gobbling up electricity, but the share differs significantly by state. Between 2010 and 2025, data centers went from less than 5% to roughly 40% of Virginia's electricity consumption. Sweet jesus.

@Ross__Hendricks lol a bubble is just a sign of mistimed pricing

Annual data center capex: $500 billion Pricing power: $0 Replaying the Dot Com bubble: priceless

Yes it holds especially true with the AI market. $ per token dramatically decreases on the newest gen because providers can serve them with better energy costs If you're doing any sort of training or inference you should almost always switch to the newest gen chip for the best efficiency

New newsletter: THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE POPS I don't consider myself an AI doomer or pessimist. But I do try to be a historical realist. Almost every capex-heavy industrial revolution has passed thru a bubble phase. I don't know why we'd expect AI—which demands that private firms spend an entire Apollo program's worth of money every 10 months—to be so different. A transcript of my excellent conversation with @pkedrosky on: - How AI capex break down - Why the AI build-out is different from past infrastructure projects, like the railroad and dot-com build-outs - How AI spending is creating a vortex of capital that’s sucking resources away from other parts of the economy - Why the entire financial system is balancing on big chip-makers like Nvidia - The warning signs we should look for before the bubble pops - If the bubble pops, what surprising industries will face a reckoning derekthompson.org/p/this-is-how-…

@The_AI_Investor high compared to the bain numbers, but note the (foreign) private investment category expect that to go wayyy up over the next few years, with no reports

Citi Research: - raise 2026 AI CAPEX forecast from $420bn to $490bn. - through 2029: increase our cumulative hyperscaler CAPEX forecast from $2.3tn to $2.8tn, and $5.5T in global capex Interesting they projected $2.164T global capex in 2029 alone. $NVDA