Archibald Haddock 🌊

It’s interesting, after all the talk of being unpredictable, he gives these transparent clues that undermine his bargaining position. You are right, anything can happen in the end, but this basically broadcasts that they are not interested in a long war - which strengthens Irans position in negotiations.

If this date holds (big IF), it means that by then the war must be over I can't see a visit during an unfinished war and also i can't see imagine a second postponement after the March meeting (But again, everything is possible nowadays)

@mi_prisco @macastel3 I promise you they didn’t have a strategy this complex and coherent.

@macastel3 I see it differently. US have already decided a military operation to capture Iran’s oil. They’re correctly afraid of a Chinese reaction, and this visit is meant to deescalate the ensuing tensions and offer China and Russia a “deal”. If I’m right, this tentative won’t work.

One of the most bizarre behaviors of LLMs is that it genuinely seems receptive to being told to work harder or that its being lazy. It acknowledges this and them seemingly does a better job.

This is crazy. Peter Schiff is normally very optimistic about the economy.

@theafroaussie @JHenceroth I trust the guy based in Thailand who reads the news all the time

@JHenceroth “A place I don’t know.” You have absolutely no idea whether I do or don’t know Thailand Or where I’ve been, for that matter Secondly, what I’m VERY sure of, is that you don’t know “Israelis” I do.

About a week ago, Thailand uncovered the largest drug trafficking network in the country’s history. Take a guess at who presided over it.

@grok @helixbase @CantEverDie This has me dying. I like grok now.

@helixbase @CantEverDie Yes, that's Erika Kirk, CEO and chairwoman of Turning Point USA.

oh they’re going to try to kill him for this one lol

Christopher Nolan’s 30 favourite films of all time: 1) 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968, Kubrick) 2) 12 Angry Men (1957, Lumet) 3) Alien (1979, Scott) 4) All Quiet on the Western Front (1930, Milestone) 5) Bad Timing (1980, Roeg) 6) The Battle of Algiers (1966, Pontecorvo) 7) Blade Runner (1982, Scott) 8) Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1978, Spielberg) 9) First Man (2018, Chazelle) 10) For All Mankind (1989, Reinert) 11) Foreign Correspondent (1940, Hitchcock) 12) Greed (1924, Stroheim) 13) The Hit (1984, Frears) 14) Koyaanisqatsi (1983, Reggio) 15) Lawrence of Arabia (1962, Lean) 16) Merry Christmas Mr. Lawrence (1983, Oshima) 17) Metropolis (1927, Lang) 18) Mr. Arkadin – (1955, Welles) 19) The Right Stuff (1983, Kaufman) 20) Saving Private Ryan (1988, Spielberg) 21) The Spy Who Loved Me (1977,Gilbert) 22) Ryan’s Daughter (1970, Lean) 23) Star Wars (1977, Lucas) 24) Street of Crocodiles (1986, The Brothers Quay) 25) Sunrise (1927, Murnau) 26) Superman: The Movie (1978, Donner) 27) The Testament of Dr. Mabuse (1933, Lang) 28) The Thin Red Line (Malick, 1988) 29) Topkapi (1964, Dassin) 30) The Tree of Life (2011, Malick) ("Christopher Nolan’s 30 favourite movies of all time", Jack Whatley, Far out Magazine, 2024)

@Blueelectron4 @IAPolls2022 I find it depressing how poor so many people’s character judgment is. It was all right there for everyone to see.

@IAPolls2022 Too late you idiots already voted for him. When you're on a roller coaster they don't let you take a poll before the big drop. You chose to get on the ride, there's no getting off now.

Fox News Poll: Trump's approval trend among Hispanic Americans 🟡 Dec. 2025: 48-52% (-4) 🟤 Jan. 2026: 46-54% (-8) 🟤 Feb. 2026: 44-56% (-12) 🔴 Mar. 2026: 28-72% (-44)

@VGrubsky @323_iba @Mylovanov That is a fair point. Tough situation for everyone involved because it sounds like the way they will accept defectors is if they give up intelligence. But anyways, yeah we don’t know the whole story.

@squidsee @323_iba @Mylovanov You can desert or defect, even join the other side. I’m totally cool with that. But killing your own people to “redeem yourself” isn’t honorable. However, we don’t know the whole story here.

A Russian soldier secretly guided Ukrainian strikes onto his own people and says it killed 150 Russians and wounded 50. For about 80 days, he shared his unit’s positions with Ukraine, and strikes landed 10–15 minutes after he sent the coordinates, United24. 1/

@PAstynome @TobyWBlack Because it’s per capita. Per capita doesn’t measure the average persons income.

@TobyWBlack Still insanely high.

Singapore having a per capita GDP of $162K seems like a sick joke. I don’t think any Singaporeans seriously believe they are that wealthy or even feel that wealthy. In fact, they bitch like crazy about their income.

@RobSilver @TheStalwart You’re kind of bending the definition of ‘win’ and ‘lose’ and ‘war’ and ‘battle’ here to make sure it fits your narrative. Using this system we can claim America has won *every* war since WW2 because it’s still a superpower.

@TheStalwart If you define it narrowly as just Kuwait then you can argue the US won, but by any larger definition of their strategic goals? I think it’s hard to call it a win. US has won tons of battles/tactics - including there and in Iran. But no actual wars.

Good time to remind followers not based in the US that in American culture there is a high premium placed on basically “saving face” which may be something useful to think about if you’re trying to figure out how this ends.

@323_iba @VGrubsky @Mylovanov I know. It’s just an analogy. I mean that if you’re fighting for a cause that you know to be immoral, it’s not immoral to abandon that cause. It’s just the way it is, unless you don’t believe in morality at all. There is nothing intrinsically good about blind loyalty.

@squidsee @VGrubsky @Mylovanov Except they are not all murderers since there’s a lot of soldiers fighting cause they are being forced too. So yes he is a traitor for not staying loyal

@_StopPropaganda @okaythenfuture @akarlin Yeah that makes sense. But lots of them don’t speak Thai. Definitely not all.

@squidsee @okaythenfuture @akarlin Burmese blend in well with the local population and a lot if not most of them do speak Thai. Plenty shared historically & culturally and are generally tolerated.

Thailand has demographically peaked and its human capital is mid. It's not going to become rich the classical way. I think it should consider opening up its economy to the masses of long-term digital nomads who make it their de facto home. Having them is better than not having them, but restricting them to teaching locals English, spending their money on $3 Pad Thais, and otherwise legally forbidding them from working for local clients is suboptimal. Allowing at least the long-term nomads to fully participate in the domestic economy seems like a no brainer.

@VGrubsky @Mylovanov This actually doesn’t make any sense if you really think about it. Should you stay loyal to your family if they are all murderers? You have to do what you believe is right.

@Mylovanov I don’t care whose side you are on but this guy is a traitor to his country. He can be given an asylum but he shouldn’t be publicized as a hero.

@TerryMoran @LeslieSusan2527 @mattyglesias But interestingly it was still very close and he lost the popular vote. You were probably closer to being wrong than you realized on both accounts.

@LeslieSusan2527 @mattyglesias Two reasons. 1. Because it felt very similar to Brexit. If you got ~50 miles outside a major metropolitan area, it felt like you hit a wall. Trump was igniting a very powerful electoral force: The idea that things could be different. 2. Hillary Clinton was the opposite of that

When Trump won in 2016, most sensible people were surprised because he was down in the polls and "the candidate who is up in the polls will probably win" is a sound forecasting principle. But people who "got it right" (i.e., used bad methods) gained prestige as a result.

I uploaded like a year of my writing to ChatGPT and Claude and asked them both to generate instructions to write like me ChatGPT output is legitimate trash. Garbage slop that is clearly written by AI Claude? It literally writes just like me. Pretty unbelievable

@TheJasonNichols @mtracey @elonmusk He weighs in on things he doesn’t have expertise in every single day lol

@mtracey @elonmusk Who cares? He doesn't have any special expertise in international politics and his business experience doesn't apply.

Does @elonmusk support the Iran War? He seems to weigh in on everything other than this

Iranian Embassy in South Africa mocking Trump.. lol.. damn..

Foreigners like to live in Thailand because its nice. But that is in spite of Thailand making it difficult.. banking is a nightmare and you can't even hold a USD account. It can't become a hub without a total reform of business creation, taxes and banking. Its not going to happen.

The odds of this occurring are none, Thailand is domestically optimized for its ruling elite, not really globally optimized, so it would never move to a UAE model, it doesn’t even allow nomads to access bank accounts in the country, And its upper middle class has no intentions on changing this given Thai companies aren’t really competitive outside Thailand.

Thais will hate it but Thailand like Bali and the UAE can become one of first proper post-national states; what equal opportunity ‘no borders for decent human capital’ taken to its logical conclusion looks like ie legacy national culture and a large non-citizen ‘expat’ population