Steve 🇦🇺

@_kingofthefill_ @edgeful @AITradingCoach I'm sure it'd be helpful to know what's happening behind the scenes in volume.

@_SFTahoe @outofwritings 💯

That is what I think about it too - so what if is hard? It must be done and is an existential threat (in many regards - Optimus is a pretty ornament without a brain; China can’t win the AI race, the West has to at least tie; and humanity may not get off the planet without it. Because it is so important they will make it happen.

I find it BIZARRE that there is even a question if Tesla/SpaceX/xAI can make lithography machines or a chip fab. Look again at the list of hard things they already built. If others can produce chips at scale, so can Elon Musk. Focus on the question that actually matters: Should a Terafab be built? i.e., In 2035 will SpaceX/Tesla/xAI be better off if they have a Terafab - or if they don’t? There is NO CHOICE, and only one correct answer: “We either build the Terafab or we don’t have the chips… We need the chips so we are going to build the Terafab.” - Elon Musk A Terafab is the missing piece that unlocks full vertical integration and the recursive development loop - all the engineers sitting together working on the product, seamless integration between parts. Timelines slipping is IRRELEVANT. So what if they do? Both Tesla & SpaceX have contracts for near-term chip needs - and Elon Musk already told TSMC, Micron, and Samsung that he will continue to take every chip that suppliers send him. The Terafab isn’t necessary to just scale. They will scale without it. But a Terafab Is THE ONLY WAY to hyperscale. And in a race, you only have to be better than the closest competitor. Who else is positioned to win once the AI Race moves to Space? No one. No other entity has the audacious ambition, proven giga-scale execution, and Starship cost curve to make this real. External chip supply chains are a fragility bottleneck. The Terafab is the final vertical integration piece that starts the flywheel for a new space economy.

@_SFTahoe @outofwritings Absolutely... This is a known problem with a known solution. It simply requires execution.

@stevebothe @outofwritings People don’t understand the distinction of creating something from nothing vs replicating something that has been (even if difficult).

@outofwritings @_SFTahoe Yeah, ok... I think you need to recalibrate... My point being, you make it seem like they don't know that it's hard. That they don't know what they're up against. Like they haven't already sourced the talent required.

@stevebothe @_SFTahoe No, I mean that building a 200T reusable rocket is materially easier a problem to solve that EUV tech. Again, it's not impossible. Just very very difficult.

@outofwritings @_SFTahoe Oh, you mean like a fully reusable 200t to orbit rocket? Nah, plenty of people have done that, right? So, it's hard, so what?

@_SFTahoe Well, no. It's not that they can't. It's just that, it's insanely difficult. Litho machines are treated at the same level as nuclear tech. It's very very very very hard to reproduce without extreme scrutiny involved.

@HeidingOut @qtbootz @elonmusk 💯

@stevebothe @qtbootz @elonmusk Def doesn't seem like he would be onboard with this. Or, I would hope not.

Did everyone see this about SpaceX? 👀

@HeidingOut @qtbootz @elonmusk Agreed... And I'd go as far as to say, Elon's probably not fully informed on this yet, as I'm sure he would oppose it.

@qtbootz I'm a big fan of @elonmusk but this seems like some bullsh*t ngl.

@Pablos_BYD @TeslaAUNZ @Tesla_Optimus @Tesla Ah yes... Now I see it... Also the stick up the ass....😖

@stevebothe @TeslaAUNZ @Tesla_Optimus @Tesla He is the slightly more trim one 😉

Went to check out the @TeslaAUNZ store in Adelaide today. Got to meet @Tesla_Optimus 🤖 and the new @Tesla Model Y L 👍

@HeidingOut @MomAngtrades @massumeh18 @DogMomTrades @blondebroker1 @wandawallet @chelsRK @cryptomomlife @iamJMinx @KirasEpicTrades @Biotech_SD You'll always all have my 100% support. Keep killing it... as Heidi aptly put it.

To all the female traders I know and love, keep killing it. You guys should celebrate these ladies on Int'l Woman's Day. They are all great. @MomAngTrades @massumeh18 @DogMomTrades @blondebroker1 @wandawallet @chelsRK @cryptomomlife @iamJMinx @KirasEpicTrades @Biotech_SD @Iamraylin_nyc @salmaogs @disfordiane @consom888 @hdcharting @Liathetrader @JLehmer @_Liv2BHappy_ @AnneBruns13 @thewooofwallst @banquetsbetter If I left you off, it likely means we don't interact so let's change that. 🤣

@HeidingOut I hear ya... Went from Wed 11 trades 100% win rate to Thurs 15 trades 40% win rate. 🙄

In you are struggling, thought I'd give you guys a friendly reminder....I went all cash on Jan 16. I've traded and caught some great names last few weeks. I think my big account is up over 60% on the year, but I'll say I can already tell I'm getting careless. When you start winning a ton of trades I tend to get SLOPPY. Time to buckle back down again and only take A++ setups. And, I REALLY need to re-chart $QQQ.

@HeidingOut Oh, that's ok. I'll be around for a while. DM me when you have few minutes and we can catch up. You've been going great by the looks of it.

@stevebothe Very nice job Steve. Sry I do want to look at your indicator just been crazy atm. Just keep reminding me. Prob be in a week or so I can def find a couple of hours to play around with it.

Just call me the A team. $AAOI - over 600% on my calls (gave it to you on Feb 13), $ARCH gave it to you on Fri during the spaces up 8%, $AEVA gave it to you last Wed you could have made 13% from where I posted it, $AMPX gave it to you last night at $10.73 - it hit $12.01 another 12% move in literally just a few days and all for free: $AAOI - 600% on calls $ARCH - 8% shares $AEVA - 13% shares $AMPX - 12% shares If your account is bleeding right now, maybe you are following the wrong FURUs.

@HeidingOut @jtsla4 @elonmusk Got to keep an eye on those bastards...🧐

@stevebothe @jtsla4 @elonmusk It's my motto. 😉

I’m ngl this is genuinely scary. Anthropic literally gave up a $200M contract because they said this was too dangerous to do. Now ChatGPT has control of the most powerful countries’ autonomous weapons, this is literally Skynet. Humans are going to drive themselves into extinction. We probably deserve it since we let pedophile rule us and pay 50% of our income to them anyways

@r0ck3t23 The perceived shift is relative. Elon didn't shift, the metric shifted around him.

Peter Thiel just explained why the most consequential builder on earth had to leave the political left to keep building. Thiel: “I’ve known Elon since 2000. Almost 25 years.” For two decades, Musk was perfectly aligned. Tesla was the ultimate clean energy company. Left of center by every measure. Then the culture shifted underneath him. Thiel: “There’s this sort of straitjacket where you’re not allowed to have ideas. Even if you agree with 80%, it’s never enough.” Total compliance. Or you’re out. That demand is manageable when the stakes are low. Look at the stakes right now. We are three years away from matching human intelligence. We are scaling synthetic neural networks we cannot see inside. The architects of the industry are fracturing their own companies over alignment. When the stakes are the survival of the species, ideological compliance becomes an existential liability. We are in the middle of a winner-take-all geopolitical race for AI supremacy. Our global competitors are scaling compute with no ideological constraints. No compliance requirements. No cultural gatekeepers deciding which ideas are permitted. They are just building. America cannot win that race from inside a straitjacket. You cannot engineer the next layer of human civilization in a culture that punishes divergent thinking. You cannot solve human obsolescence, post-scarcity economics, and the alignment of a god-like intelligence while walking on ideological eggshells. The builders who are going to determine the future of this biology need to be able to think thoughts that make legacy institutions wildly uncomfortable. That is not a luxury. That is the requirement. Musk didn’t abandon his mission. He abandoned the containment zone that was making the mission impossible. The straitjacket didn’t stop fitting him. He outgrew it.

@HeidingOut @jtsla4 @elonmusk Keep your friends close, but your enemies even closer...

@jtsla4 Why not @elonmusk; not sure why we choose to make deals with poisonous snakes.

@HeidingOut Congrats Heidi... So what about the options? Did I miss it somewhere?

Up over 18% in premarket $AAOI. 59% in 9 trading days from when I originally posted the the setup. I CANNOT wait to see what my March options are selling for. LFG $AAOI.

This certainly is food for thought, but a bit much to consider in totality for my little brain. So, I had 5 AIs assess the strategy and then Grok to summarise their responses. I'm not sure who this helps, but it helped me. **Steve, yeah** – all five are in now (Claude, Gemini3, GPT 5.2, Perplexity, DeepSeek). Here’s the clean overall summary: **What all five agree on** - The big story is real: AI data centres will need a lot more power, rate cuts will help utilities, and the low volatility on 2028 options makes the leverage look cheap right now. - If XLU rises around 35-45% over the next year or two, you could make serious money on the right calls. - But XLU is mostly slow regulated utilities, not the pure AI-power winners, so it probably won’t move hard enough for the full 10x dream. - This is high risk — you can easily lose most or all of the money if the move is too small, too slow, or doesn’t happen. - Should be a small slice only (10-20% of portfolio max), not all-in. **Where they differ** Gemini3 is the most positive (good long-term balance to your fast trades). The other four are more cautious — they call it aggressive or lottery-like, especially with deep out-of-the-money strikes. **Realistic outlook from the group** 2-5x return is much more likely than 10x if the story plays out okay. Chance of full 10x is seen as low (under 10-20%). **Simple side-by-side** | AI | Thesis Quality | Chance of 10x | Realistic Return | Main Suggestion | |---------------|----------------|---------------|------------------|-------------------------------------| | Claude | B+/A- | Low | 2-4x | Modify heavily, prefer pure plays | | Gemini3 | Positive | Moderate | Solid long-term | Good balance to day trading | | GPT 5.2 | Good story | Low | 5-10x possible | Use spreads, avoid deep OTM | | Perplexity | 6/10 | Very low | Base 5-7x | Small size only | | DeepSeek | 8/10 | <10% | 2-5x | 10-20% portfolio max, use spreads | That’s the clean consensus.

If I had to turn $100k -> $1M in 1 year. It would be: $XLU OTM 2 year leaps 2026 is the first time in modern history markets have: - falling interest rates - AI inference + buildout There's a potential ~40% for XLU (1000%+ OTM), from mapping. Here's my macro thesis: 1. Rate Cuts When the Fed cuts rates without a recession, utility debt becomes cheaper, and institutional rotates low-yielding cash to for utility dividends. This causes immediate valuation multiple expansion: 1995: The S&P Utilities sector returned +31.3% in 1995 and another +12.1% in 1996 - ~47% cumulative return 2019 Mid-Cycle Cut: Result: XLU generated a +25.9% total return in that single year Standard soft-landing rate-cut cycle naturally maps to a 25% to 30% baseline return. And we're entering a new rate cut cycle in 2026. 2. The Infrastructure Supercycle Capex Infra CapEx gives the sector compounding earnings growth. Following the early 2000s, utilities entered a massive CapEx cycle to modernize aging grid infrastructure. Because they were constantly spending and expanding their guaranteed rate base, XLU returned +23.5% in 2004, +16.3% in 2005, +20.8% in 2006, and +18.4% in 2007. However this time: The $800B+ AI buildout of 2026 makes the 2004 grid modernization look like pennies. So you have Valuation Multiple Expansion (+15% to +20%), from rate cuts from #1. EPS growth (+18% to +20%) from #2 from capex spend historically. Just from a history lesson. But 2026 is the most unique moment in history from AI usage. Just from my own model projections as all former estimates are likely wrong from extreme AI ramp (eg. DOE/LBNL projections): Hyperscaler CapEx Inflows (Spend) - (Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Oracle) into DCs est: 2024: $220 Billion 2025: $350 Billion 2026: $550 Billion 2027: $800 Billion 2028: $1.2 Trillion (Growth: +445% over 4 years) U.S. Data Center Power Usage: 2024: 190 TWh 2025: 280 TWh 2026: 430 TWh 2027: 650 TWh 2028: 980 TWh (Growth: +415% over 4 years) % of Total U.S. Electricity Consumed by AI: 2024: 4.5% of the U.S. grid 2025: 6.6% 2026: 8.2-10.2% 2027: 13.4-15.4% 2028: 21.3-23.3% Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Department of Energy seem off by AI usage (they're projecting ~12% by 2028) Physical Grid Capacity Demand: 2024: 18 GW 2025: 35 GW 2026: 65 GW 2027: 105 GW 2028: 160 GW Basically you can just see 2026 into 2028 being the inflection point whereas 2024-2025 where slower years on the ramp up. Then there's the "Desperation Premium" for independent companies. Because grid capacity is sold out, tech giants are paying massive premiums to utilities to cut the line. eg. PJM Interconnection (Virginia "Data Center Alley"), capacity prices spiked from $28.92 per MW-day in 2024 to an unfathomable $329.17 per MW-day for 2026/2027. $VST or Constellation are a large weighting in the ETF as independent power producers. Across the board, you can see the extreme ramp from 2026 (now) into 2028 compared to previous years, alongside extreme capex going into building the infrastructure. 2026 is the first time in modern market history that every single thing is firing at the same time for the boring grid/power sector with AI as the biggest tailwind. And as Elon quotes it: "Billions of dollars of the most advanced hardware. Sitting dark. Not because the chips won't work. Because there's not enough electricity to run on them". Again 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly due to AI and MMs have priced in historical IV (extremely flat ~14%-16%) for OTM calls. We're seeing an explosion in AI inference (beyond previous measurements) as well as training (per OpenAI report today). So the most boring sector on earth (power/grid), might just be the start of a major rally due to hyperscaler/gov spend into grid improvements -> extreme power consumption from AI inference/training -> rate cuts and others. This is just my personal thesis, options come with risk and magnifies downside too. These are also my own projections, no certainty if they will exceed or be lower than them. But basically: 2026 is an absolute historical anomaly. New bottleneck in the US is power. There's extreme demand from AI, extreme capex, rate cuts: $XLU looks like the best trade for exposure. Time will tell if this is right or not.

@SevenParr For me, knowing if the sellers are lurking or if they left room. If they left the room I'm staying in a bit longer.

@stevebothe It’s cool, but what’s the edge I guess is what I don’t get

Anytime I get FOMO with a stock or even $QQQ $SPY at ATH's, I remember $COIN will re-enter an insane bull market eventually And $XYZ is also ridiculously mispriced. Eases my mind every single time. Some of the most textbook institutional accumulation patterns ever.

@TheUltimator5 Yes, of course... Understood. It's all an approximation anyway.

@stevebothe Yeah it could be, but just watch out with TradingView volume - I generally try to avoid volume analysis once they don’t log darkpool data outside of the daily timeframe so you are really only grabbing volume data from whatever exchanges you have volume access for

I need to stop broadcasting indicators I am working on… Check this out- I gave an initial trial version of an HTF candle indicator that plots the candles next to the chart and within a couple days after making the post, the largest TradingView indicator creators all came out with their own versions of the indicator. I don’t know if they saw my post, it the timing is incredibly suspect. Once I finally released my indicator as a premium one, I got temp banned for not having a unique indicator, and it likely has to do with the handful high profile HTF indicators that popped up over the past week. Even worse, the indicator that was released on Feb 10th (1 day after announcing and giving a trial of mine) is broken and doesn’t work properly, but it was created by the single largest creator. It’s almost like the indicator was rushed to completion to be first to market. Why would the largest names on the platform release an untested and broken indicator if not rushing to be first to release?? You won’t be able to access the indicator I linked in my original post since I deleted that version since it was incomplete.

Which bit don't you get? It shows you where the sellers are while you're in the green bar. The orange patch at the bottom is the strength of the sellers at that time. And vice versa When in the Red bar the orange bit is the strength of the buyers. No more guessing. Need I go on?

@stevebothe I don’t get it