Steve Mano 🇬🇧 🇨🇦

@Gubloinvestor Genuinely curious - isn't not needing to optimise where you live based on tax one of the luxuries of being rich? What's the point of it all if you allow it to dictate such life decisions?

If i want to move out of canada to escape capital gains on stocks. i would chose Malaysia or Mauritius Good Beach, Nature, Sun, Good healthcare, safe, good infrastructure, English speaking, Good Air quality, no war and affordable.

That's exactly it, still yet unknown and I've just started hearing ads pop up on a number of podcasts I listen to so they are trying to solve that. I think around 70% of customers come from word-of-mouth/referrals which is exceptional and validates customer satisfaction. I was in the stock at IPO but sold soon after. Funnily enough buying back in now at pretty much the same price but hoping once fees are low enough they can't be ignored, it'll be a massive catalyst.

@stevemano101 Agreed, been seeing that win/win flywheel effect from them and comparing to Nick Sleep's criteria. Seems like a lot of runway but not well known in the USA yet. I've been buying slowly for the past 4 years.

$WSE $WISE is an example of what Nick Sleep coined as "scale economies shared". Sending money abroad has always been about 1) FX rate/fees and 2) speed. As Wise grows, they are able to lower their fees and speed up transfers, thus their moat will strengthen over time. Destination analysis: when their liquidity pools are large enough and they profit from other ancillary services, the fee to send money abroad will be $0 and the time will be seconds. No one will be able to compete with that.

@kejca When the charities that inherit Buffett's shares need to liquidate them, $BRK will be using a lot of their cash to buy back these shares I reckon

Greg Abel: "When the opportunity presents itself, we want to be an active repurchaser of Berkshire shares." "It's a great outcome for Berkshire shareholders to own a larger piece of each of our operating businesses and the portfolio [of] equity companies."

Yeah the share awards are the issuance of new shares but I am talking about the buybacks the company has been doing including 250k shares or so in Q1 of this year. Of course, perfectly legal but just surprised that it is when the company knows what the results of the ongoing trial are and the people that they are buying back shares from do not. Just philosophical musings (ignore me)

@stevemano101 @Jim_Rothman @aravind_233 I believe the shares were RSU grants/awards to directors...not open market buys $allr

$ALLR I just voted "for" each of the management proposals ahead of the annual meeting. Nothing to overthink here - current management is the REASON this company is turning around so not trust them doesn't make sense to me. Even regarding dilution, management has far more insight into the current state of play than us, and if they deem it necessary (in line with all other biotech nanocaps), then I trust them.

@MohnishPabrai @ShaanVP For sure the best one, thanks for running nice and long! Mental models are definitely my favourite topic of late and you not letting Shaan get away with "so you can have mental models that contradict each other?" No. You. Can. Not.

I very much enjoyed my banter with @ShaanVP. This was our third conversation and I think the best one: youtu.be/FjWY1-gZ0Cs?si…

@Jim_Rothman @aravind_233 I genuinely can't believe biotechs like $ALLR who can confidentially see the results of their ongoing trials are allowed to buy back shares in the open market... Great as an investor but am I crazy or should this be illegal lol

@stevemano101 @aravind_233 The going concern is a fair point. If we rerate higher then the shares can be sold to pay off the $20M. Having funds to wait for a better or best offer is another valid reason. I can see it. And apparently w/borrowing money for buying back shares they appear confident.

@ShaanVP When your favourite investor goes on your favourite podcast...

round 3 with Mohnish Pabrai is live we talked mental models, Buffett, Berkshire, AI, and why most smart investors stay poor (if you liked the first 2 rounds, you'll love this one)

$ALLR On the proposal itself, there is no point having an ELOC (even for emergencies) unless you have approval to use it. Moreover, once the market cap is above $30m, no shareholder approval is required, so really a non-issue. On dilution, there could be a few reasons for it: 1) Shares being bought back now can be sold via this facility (quickly) when the price spikes 2) Even if you have to partner up / get bought out, to command the best price at the negotiating table, you have to appear self-sufficient 3) TJ is insistent on having over 12 months of funding even if good data is round the corner, to avoid the "going concern" from auditors All in all, biotech nanocaps avoiding any dilution is just not realistic. Trusting that management will be sensible about dilutive events is the key.

@stevemano101 @aravind_233 Trying to determine what dilution is needed. They can resell bought back shares at a higher price when the stock spikes on data, but, if Phase 3 is needed they’d have to partner. So what are they financing with dilution?

$ALLR has the $6m equity line of credit with Tunim. Dilution depends on when management chooses to draw down on the facility but the proposal is to allow dilution to exceed 20% (NASDAQ rule). Again, TJ has worked so hard to clean up the cap table and look after shareholders (eg. non-convertible, non-dilutive $20m financing). Let's trust the ROI on any drawdowns is well worth it for shareholders long term.

@stevemano101 Dilution is a possibility? How much

@Acyn He doesn't say "He’s a person I’ve known for a long time", he says "He’s GOT a person I’ve known for a long time"...

Reporter: Are you attending your son’s wedding? Trump: He’d like me to go. I’m going to try. I said, this is not good timing for me. I have a thing called Iran and other things. He’s a person I’ve known for a long time.

@Gubloinvestor Bear in mind, if you use your TFSA for "trading" (judged by frequency of trades), the CRA could ding you if your balance grows a lot.

My entire TFSA is $MU I bought it today.. i am all in..

@MohnishPabrai said this and I agree - $AMR can hopefully buy back shares till there is about 4 million o/s. After that, a big met coal year will produce $1 B in FCF, which equates to around $250 in annual dividend, which is higher than the current stock price. They are currently weathering the met coal downcycle and still buying back shares.

@EquityBrian $AMR - secret way to play the infrastructure build out, no debt, big buybacks once FCF positive. $DLO - old $MELI CFO running the company and about to start spitting off big cash after investment cycle.

What’s your best under-$5B market cap idea right now? Bonus points if you explain the bull case.

As a new $BRK shareholder, I really appreciate this post. I have long thought that people are undervaluing the $400 B cash given Berkshire will likely deploy it at the most opportune time (put aside Greg's stock picking ability). If we accept a downturn will come and BH will deploy half of their cash, then the $200 B can easily climb to $300 - $400 B once the cycle recovers.

My thoughts on $BRK People overcomplicate $BRK because they try to value every piece perfectly down to the decimal. They debate price to book, intrinsic value formulas, and build giant spreadsheets modeling every subsidiary. Meanwhile I look at it much more simply. $BRK has roughly $400b in cash and around $300b in stocks. That’s about $700b right there between cash and equities alone. So when the company is worth around $1t, you’re basically paying roughly $300b for everything else. That includes the railroad, the energy business, insurance operations, manufacturing, distribution, service businesses, and one of the greatest collections of operating assets ever assembled. And honestly I think people massively underestimate the value of the insurance float. The float is one of the greatest financial assets ever created because $BRK gets access to enormous amounts of capital at extremely attractive economics. Most people do not fully understand how powerful that becomes over decades. That float has quietly fueled one of the greatest compounding machines in financial history. But the part that fascinates me most is the discipline. Almost every CEO on earth would have cracked by now sitting on $400b of cash. Most management teams would feel pressure to force acquisitions just to appear active. $BRK has basically said if we cannot find something intelligent to buy at scale, we are willing to wait. People look at the cash and think it’s dead money, but optionality matters. $BRK effectively owns a giant call option on future chaos. When markets panic and liquidity disappears, $BRK becomes one of the only entities on earth capable of writing enormous checks instantly without relying on financing markets. That is a huge strategic advantage. The other thing people miss is how rare true permanence is in capitalism. Most corporations optimize for optics. CEOs rotate, incentives change, cultures decay, and strategies constantly shift depending on sentiment. $BRK was built differently. It was designed almost like an anti Wall Street structure where long term thinking itself became the competitive advantage. In many ways that culture may end up being Buffett’s greatest creation, even bigger than the stock portfolio itself. A lot of companies talk about long term thinking. $BRK actually structured the organization around it. I also think people misunderstand what $BRK really is. They think it’s just “an insurance company that owns stocks.” But $BRK is basically a giant ecosystem of real world economic activity. Railroads, energy infrastructure, manufacturing, freight movement, insurance, distribution, consumer spending, and financial assets all under one umbrella. In many ways it’s almost like owning a miniature version of the American economy. But unlike an index fund, the capital allocation is centralized under highly disciplined operators. You get diversification without complete chaos along with durability, liquidity, tax efficiency, reinvestment flexibility, and world class balance sheet. And honestly the most underrated asset may simply be trust. If $BRK calls during a crisis, people pick up the phone. If $BRK wants to buy a family owned business, sellers trust the company will preserve the culture and operate responsibly. I also think people are underestimating Greg Abel. Nobody is Warren Buffett and nobody ever will be, but that doesn’t mean $BRK suddenly stops being $BRK. Greg already understands the culture, operational discipline, and capital allocation philosophy better than almost anyone alive. That’s why $BRK almost a forever asset or a savings account on steroids. No, it’s not going to triple overnight and no, it’s not some hyper growth AI stock. But when I look at over $700b between cash and equities, elite operating businesses, insurance float, fortress balance sheet strength, world class reputation, and disciplined reinvestment talent, I have a hard time viewing it as expensive. 🌹

@NotA_Bull Having never bought the stock before, I actually just put 15% into $BRK.B in the last few days. Buffett is the investing goat but if Greg can improve some of the operating businesses, earnings could increase significantly.

NEW POSITION IN MY PORTFOLIO! After a long time, I’ve made a NEW move, adding $BRK.B to my portfolio. $BRK.B now makes up 1.54% of my total holdings, and I’m looking to add more. With a P/E of 13.99, it’s an excellent buy in my book. Thoughts?

$BRK is stockpiling cash like no tomorrow and everyone is claiming it's because there are no 'elephants' to invest in. Not true. People don't realise that $150 of the $400 billion is going to be used to buy back Buffett's shares from the charities he donates to. This will curtail the otherwise cataclysmic stock price pressures from all the recipients selling their shares all at once. Any thoughts on this theory @MohnishPabrai ?

@resveratrol67 $ALLR I like the way you put it, crazy for a company to only go from strength to strength and for the stock price to stay pretty flat over the last year. The "undervaluation" has skyrocketed over this time.

What’s ironic is that $ALLR is cheaper now than back when it was under a dollar, because the ceiling continues to rise, along with the floor: - second buyback - $20M loan - no dilution (at low prices) - SCLC study underway - ovarian trial maturity The stock is getting cheaper ⏳

Best company label is an interesting one! I know everyone sh!tted on @altcap for his comments on $GOOGL search but I don't think he is wrong. Might not have happened yet but I think LLMs do disrupt search and no guarantee the alternative (Gemini) will be as lucrative. I might be off on this but I basically only use google search instead of remembering the URL I want to go to. Also congrats bro!

$GOOGL has been an epic stock for me and has been a needle mover in a big way Gonna sell some bits here at $370 & spend on the family as better ROI than investing invest in something else, $GOOGL is the best company in the world!