Autonomous with Bud

472 posts

Autonomous with Bud

Autonomous with Bud

@stonewashed92

Covering Tesla and the AI future. Human. Not investment advice. Opinions are my own.

Katılım Ağustos 2024
405 Takip Edilen124 Takipçiler
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Marques Brownlee
I’ve been in Texas for maybe 10 minutes
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Geiger Capital
Geiger Capital@Geiger_Capital·
It’s actually insane that Biden or Harris never went to visit SpaceX purely due to politics… Never went to see a launch. Wouldn’t even tweet congratulating them. This is American exceptionalism. 🇺🇸🚀
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Congratulations @SpaceX team on an epic first Starship V3 launch & landing! You scored a goal for humanity.
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Autonomous with Bud
Autonomous with Bud@stonewashed92·
SpaceX will be the railroad of the 21st century. The value created on the back of orbital infrastructure is hard to imagine.
SightBringer@_The_Prophet__

⚡️SpaceX is about to become the public-market gravitational center for the next industrial age. This would be the IPO that turns orbit into an investable asset class. SpaceX is not just selling rockets. It is selling control over the logistics layer of space: launch cadence, reusable infrastructure, Starlink distribution, defense dependency, NASA dependency, sovereign communications, orbital replenishment, and eventually Starship-scale mass movement. Public markets have never had clean access to that before. That is why this would be historic. The stock would instantly become more than a company. It would become a macro instrument. A way to bet on American industrial dominance, orbital infrastructure, defense-tech acceleration, satellite communications, Musk premium, Starship optionality, and the financialization of space. But the brutal truth: the IPO price is probably going to be savage. If SpaceX comes public at an extreme valuation, early public buyers may be paying for destiny upfront. The company can be one of the greatest industrial assets on Earth and still be a dangerous entry at the wrong price. Public markets love scarcity, mythology, national-strategic assets, and Musk-linked reflexivity. That combination can produce a valuation that leaves very little margin for error. The real market impact would be huge. It would pull capital and attention out of weaker space names. It would reprice Rocket Lab, ASTS, satellite infrastructure, launch names, defense-tech names, and even parts of AI infrastructure because SpaceX becomes the benchmark. Every public “space” company gets measured against the king. The deeper implication: SpaceX going public would mark the point where the orbital layer stops being private strategic infrastructure and becomes public-market property. That changes the psychology of the entire sector. Retail gets access. Institutions get access. ETFs eventually get access. Indexes eventually get access. Politicians get a public-market constituency tied to orbital dominance. The company becomes harder to ignore and harder to attack without touching millions of shareholders. That matters. The danger is governance and dependency. Public markets would be buying into a company whose power comes partly from being founder-driven, state-adjacent, operationally aggressive, and structurally irreplaceable. The very things that make SpaceX exceptional also make it messy as a public company. Final read: SpaceX IPO is probably the biggest public-market event of this era. The asset is civilization-scale. The valuation may arrive priced like prophecy. That means awe is justified. FOMO is not.

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TheSonOfWalkley
TheSonOfWalkley@TheSonOfWalkley·
BREAKING: $TSLA SIGNS $200 MILLION MEGAPACK DEAL WITH META 👀 Batteries for data centers !
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Gali
Gali@Gfilche·
If @Tesla & @SpaceX merge, there will be a very intense shareholder vote to get this approved Here's my 2 cents & how I'm voting. Yes. Whatever Elon & management say is fair, is a yes from me. Why? Tesla & SpaceX are valued at roughly $1.5T & $1.75T respectively. If SpaceX buys Tesla (makes sense because of Elon's dual voting class shares), maybe they do it a ~20% premium to $1.5T and make it a 50/50 merger of equals. Tesla shareholders will complain about not getting compensated for @robotaxi success, @Tesla_Optimus, etc ... But the truth is, both companies are very similar in size with parrelel upside trajectories. Additionally, they are joined at the hip with Elon leading them both and the Terafab project. Tesla is a ~$100B revenue run-rate, barely growing, valued at nearly 20X sales in this merger... extremely high for a low gross margin company. Giving $TSLA arguably ~$1T of value based on future product lines that aren't material yet SpaceX is a $25B revenue run-rate company with @Starlink already 0 to 1 poised to hit a $30-40B revenue run-rate in the next 18 months. With MUCH HIGHER profitability than Tesla's current business. That means even thought Tesla has 4X the revenue of SpaceX, it's profitability is actually equal in size. When I look at the intrinsic earnings power ($15B of operating cashflow/yr) of Tesla & SpaceX they are actually very similar. With each of them spending all their operating cash flow and more on CAPEX for future projects (including @Xai in SpaceX). Each getting a very aggressive valuation based on future growth prospects. It's almost impossible to predict how the earnings/cashflow will evolve. Especially because a lot of it depends on accounting and how the Terafab/Optimi in Space is structured. Long story short, it's very complicated, and millions of hot take articles will be written about it ... but all in all, a merger of equals, or roughly that, looks fair to me. Another kicker to consider and why I'm voting yes. I trust Elon to do right by shareholders. $TSLA is up 34,687% since it's 2010 IPO, not bad. Tesla has a management team with a track record of making crazy ambitious goals and executing. They're vision for an intergalactic future gets even grander as a combined entity with SpaceX. Let them cook. Full disclaimer I'm a $TSLA & SpaceX investor.
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SurfRanch Vibes
SurfRanch Vibes@surfranchvibes·
When you buy a Tesla, you’re purchasing FSD as your asset not the vehicle itself
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TheSonOfWalkley
TheSonOfWalkley@TheSonOfWalkley·
PIPER SANDLER SAYS $TSLA INVESTORS ARE GETTING OPTIMUS “FOR FREE” AT $400/SHARE 👀 Tesla to $1,000 ?
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Autonomous with Bud@stonewashed92·
China’s desperate moves to kneecap U.S. AI are backfiring spectacularly in real time. America is about to own the ultimate infrastructure layer from orbit. Solar 24/7. No zoning. 10× cheaper power. Infinite scaling. Bigger than railroads. Bigger than maritime shipping. The next century of economic dominance is set to be built in space right now… and the American innovation machine is locked in.
The Assembly@InTheAssembly

The competitive landscape is already heating up: Google launched Project Suncatcher last November. SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25 trillion deal aimed at space data centers. SpaceX filed to launch 1 million orbital AI satellites. Every hyperscaler is going to orbit.

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Sawyer Merritt
Sawyer Merritt@SawyerMerritt·
Ford has officially introduced Ford Energy, following in the footsteps of @Tesla. "Ford Energy will provide U.S.-assembled LFP prismatic battery energy storage systems for a variety of uses. Units are planned for availability beginning in late 2027." Specs: • 2-hour & 4-hour configurations • Rated Energy: 5.45 MWh • Cell Capacity: 512 Ah • Cell Dimensions: 73 × 275 x 210 mm • Voltage Range: 1040 - 1500 VDC • Dimensions: 20 ft standard container • Product Weight: ~43.5 tons • Aux. Power Load: Max 37.5 kW • Noise: <75 dBA • Cooling Method: Liquid Cooling • Corrosion Protection Level: C5 • Ingress Protection (IP) Rating: IP55 • Operating Temperature: -35°C to +55°C • Operating Altitude: ≤ 4000m (No Derating)
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