Scott Tranter

120 posts

Scott Tranter

Scott Tranter

@stranter

Data Science @decisiondeskhq

Washington D.C. Katılım Ocak 2008
2.2K Takip Edilen3.4K Takipçiler
Scott Tranter retweetledi
Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
Our Votes Dashboard is publicly launching Monday. For those on the waitlist check your email over the weekend.... Live dashboards. Every single public poll. Full historical archive going back to 2000 (and growing). Integrated prediction market data linked to elections. More features launching during primary season! votes.decisiondeskhq.com/races/242466
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DDHQ Data
DDHQ Data@DDHQdata·
Public Opinion Strategies / Young Kim 01/24 – 01/27 400 LV California-40 US House Primary Ballot Test 🔴 Young Kim -- 23% 🔴 Ken Calvert -- 22% 🔵 Joe Kerr -- 22% 🔵 Esther Kim Varet -- 14% data.ddhq.io/polls/2026/02/… --- VIEW OUR POLLING AVERAGES HERE: decisiondeskhq.com/polls/averages/
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Scott Tranter
Scott Tranter@stranter·
@rudnicknoah Compare 2000 presidential campaign spending to 2008 to 2016 to 2024...
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VoteHub
VoteHub@VoteHub·
Using public voter files, Peter Lutz (@ding3rs) takes a first-of-its-kind look at partisan registration among pro athletes by league.
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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
10 Elections to watch in 2026 Q1 1. Jan. 31: TX-18 special election Christian Menefee (D) & Amanda Edwards (D) meet in runoff contest. BUT district changed a lot in TX redistricting, both face Rep. Al Green in March 3 primary for new TX-18. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/10-big-elect…
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Scott Tranter
Scott Tranter@stranter·
Some of the GOP presidential primary campaigns in 2016 tracked earned media impressions using set top box data and TV Eyes combined with 4-6 month continuous surveys into those audiences to track ballot tests/favorability/recall. Since those audiences we're also used for paid tv, digital and GOTV campaigns there was some decent insight into what worked and didn't --- the campaign could get a decently complete (but not fully complete) picture of what the voters were exposed to from a paid and unpaid perspective. None of this data was intended to be a formal or otherwise academic test but plenty good enough to infer some conclusions around the effectiveness of earned media from paid voter contact methods in my opinion.
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Scott Tranter
Scott Tranter@stranter·
GOP aligned groups privately ran similar GOTV based RCTs in 2012 and 2014 and also found negligible impact for traditional activities such as doors and phones. When you really game out what works and is also scalable I know that through most of the 2010s not many GOTV activities penciled out -- lots of inferential data that organically created earned media certainly did (i.e. Trump 2016)
David Shor@davidshor

Obama closing OFA after the 2008 is widely seen as a catastrophic decision that caused lasting harm to the party. The reality is that published academic research (and private tests in 2012) suggest that Obama’s 2008 field persuasion program likely cost the campaign votes

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Scott Tranter
Scott Tranter@stranter·
The discrepancy among the various post-mortems and exit polls from elections is one of the most (maybe the most) misunderstood, under-reported and mis-analyzed facets of election data.
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17

Relatedly: it is a serious problem for election data that we can't actually agree on what really happened in 2024. Catalist thinks white college voters were D+2. Pew and the NYT say they were D+12. Pew thinks Hispanic voters were D+3. Catalist says D+8, NYT D+10.

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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
The holiday season is here, which means 2026 is close at hand. DDHQ put together a 2026 Primary Primer covering next year's primary election calendar, which stretches from March to September. Every state. Every notable race. decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/the-2026-pri…
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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
For the second week in a row, Jack Ciattarelli has gained slightly on Mikie Sherrill, leaving her with one of the thinnest leads she has held in the history of our average. Abigail Spanberger regains much of the ground she lost in the past few weeks, holding a 7-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears. 7-day change in averages: 🟢Presidential Approval +0.9% 🟢Trump Favorable +0.9% 🟢Vance Favorable +0.5% 🟣Schumer Unfavorable +1.1% 🟢Democratic Party Favorable +3.4% 🟢Republican Party Favorable +2.8% 🔵Right Track +1.7% 🔵Spanberger +1.1% 🔴Ciattarelli +0.3% 🟠Cornyn +0.1% You can follow the polling movement, including generic ballot crosstabs and Virginia Attorney General, on our website.
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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
It's Wednesday, so it's time for DDHQ's weekly Polling Memo. This week, the spotlight is on NYC Mayor, where Mamdani looks unassailable as long as the race remains crowded. We also have polling averages for 2025 races, pres approval & more! decisiondeskhq.substack.com/p/mamdani-is-a…
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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
We’ve got a couple of big announcements to make today. First, Geoffrey Skelley (@geoffreyvs) is joining our team as our Chief Elections Analyst. As part of this new position, Geoffrey will be writing and editing our newsletter, which is being renamed The Bellwether. He’ll take deep dives into the most important topics in the election world, debut a podcast in the near future, and provide electoral analysis here on X. He’ll also be appearing across a variety of outlets to help audiences understand the ins and outs of election-related stories.
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Decision Desk HQ
Decision Desk HQ@DecisionDeskHQ·
We're on pace to cover over 50,000 elections this year from Mosquito Control Board in south Florida to Governors contests in NJ and VA Governors. Check below if you want to join our engineering team and help us out! linkedin.com/jobs/view/4283…
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