🇨🇦 Scott Tribe 🇨🇦 - Ketchup Chip Nationalist

Alternate sites I post at: - Bluesky. You can find me at bsky.app/profile/stribe… - Mastodon, you can find me at @stribeprogblog" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">mstdn.ca/@stribeprogblog

@dmacpher He's getting dunked on by pro-Canadian folks as well as Jeffery Rath.. tough day for him.

“Enemies of the state” These aren’t serious people.

We’re calling it: The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase. @KatStepanenko and I have authored a new special report studying how Ukraine is actively challenging the positional character of the war that has dominated the battlefield since 2023. Data on Russia’s battlefield performance indicates that the character of the war is shifting in favor of Ukrainian forces – at least for now. Russian forces rates of advances are stagnating while Ukrainian forces are employing novel tactics and operational concepts in efforts to break out of positional warfare. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can conduct operational maneuvers yet, however. The bottom line is that the war in Ukraine is competitive and far from stalemated. Ukrainian forces are out-innovating Russian forces in both military technologies and in applying these new technologies in effective operational concepts that can help Ukrainian forces break out of positional warfare. Ukraine is employing mechanized equipment in tactical maneuvers in ways that were impossible 12 months ago. Russia’s ability to conduct infiltration missions will likely continue to degrade as Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign pushes Russia’s logistics and forward operating bases further away from the frontlines, reducing resourcing to sustain infantry tasked with infiltration missions. Ukraine may be able to scale these effects if they resourced properly by international partners. Ukraine’s advantage in intermediate range strikes is notably not permanent, and Russia will very likely eventually develop countermeasures to mitigate Ukraine’s advantages. Ukraine’s international partners thus have a rare and temporary opportunity to help Ukraine exploit favorable battlefield dynamics while Ukraine has the upper hand. Key Points of the report: • Russia’s rate of advance is plummeting during the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. • Russia is losing more soldiers to make fewer gains, with monthly Russian casualty rates reportedly outpacing monthly recruitment since December 2025. • Ukraine is starting to regain more ground than it is losing for the first time since 2023. • Ukraine’ recent counterattacks feature unique characteristics and deviate from key trends that defined the positional character of the war since 2023. • Ukraine is conducting a pattern of more frequent mechanized counterattacks at the tactical level for the first time since 2023. • The Ukrainian command’s operational planning is maturing. • Ukraine’s early 2026 counterattacks in the south were successful likely due to better planning and preparation of the battlefield. • Ukraine has been conducting a coherent campaign to suppress and destroy Russian air defenses since late 2025, in order to shape the battlefield as part of more sophisticated campaign planning. • Ukraine significantly intensified its intermediate-range strike campaign against dynamic targets in Spring 2026 in order to degrade Russian logistics at operational depths ahead of planned Ukrainian maneuver. • Ukrainian forces started actively disrupting Russian railway logistics in occupied Ukraine and Russian western regions in Spring 2026. • Ukrainian intermediate-range strikes are already achieving notable operational effects, including degrading Russia's ability to use the key Russian highway connecting Russia to occupied Crimea and GLOCs around Donetsk City. • Ukrainian forces decisively seized the initiative in intermediate-range strikes by fielding new technologies such as the US-made Hornet strike UAV, among other systems. • Ukrainian forces are achieving temporary tactical drone overmatch in some frontline sectors, which is slowing Russian offensive operations by degrading the effectiveness of Russian shaping operations. • Ukrainian forces likely achieved tactical drone overmatch in certain frontline sectors after degrading Russia’s drone capabilities in late 2025 to early 2026 - primarily by suppressing drone launch positions and increasingly intercepting Russian tactical UAVs. • Ukraine’s degradation of Russian forces at operational depth combined with tactical-level drone overmatch likely is creating vulnerabilities in the Russian lines. • Ukraine’s intermediate-range strike campaign is likely far from its zenith, assuming continued support from Ukraine’s partners, and will likely intensify over 2026 as Ukraine fields new weapons capable of striking Russian’s operational rear. Link to full report: understandingwar.org/research/russi…

@AJsaysOK @CTVNews You mean when they bombed the FSB training centre. And you seem to be conveniently forgetting Russia has been bombing civilian centres since this war started.

@CTVNews Finally. And Kiev operational controls. The line was crossed when the Ukraine bombed that school. Times up and it’s time for Russia to end it.

Russia threatens more strikes on Kyiv, urges foreigners to leave city ctvnews.ca/world/russia-u…

Pete needs to understand we got the message, hence our move away from the US economically, militarily etc. Suck it up, furry Caillou.

@ukraine_map Ironically, by doing that, Trump and the US lost all influence over what Ukraine attacks. I've not heard a lot of US officials trying to stop Ukraine form targeting Russian oil facilities or tanker ships carrying that oil, for example.

The US 🇺🇸 stopped all military aid to Ukraine 🇺🇦 paused the majority of military sales, deprioritized intelligence sharing and eased energy sanctions The US took every step it could short of selling Russia military equipment. Now Russia commits more war crimes killing Ukrainians

@WxOntario1 been cooler then normal though in Ontario.. that normally isn't an El Nino condition is it?

@stribe39 No prolonged dry spells...El Nino

The soaking rain has begun across SW #Ontario Not much has changed with the heaviest rainfall still expected near / north shores of Lk #Erie and Ont and from #Chatham to #Barrie 30-50mm (locally 50-70mm) possible for those areas A general 10-25mm elsewhere Rain starts to taper off from west to east later this evening Rainfall map below valid through 12am Sunday #OnWX #ONStorm

Huge opportunity for Canada to skim some great entrepreneurial immigrants. And they can bring their billion dollar startups with them.

Pandering to separatists for partisan 'keep the base happy' reasons is even more contemptible than separatism itself. At least the separatists actually believe something, despicable though it is - you're just dragging Albertans into a this gong show to protect your leader.

“Good and important discussions with our Arctic allies in NATO in Helsingborg today on strengthening cooperation, security, and stability in the Arctic 🇬🇱” — posted by Greenland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs on Facebook on May 22, 2026.

This is not a bad thing.

@SugarShaq_ @YankeesFiles @SassoCT As an aside, it hurts to see Bichette struggling the way he is with the Mets. I wonder if his injury at the end of last season is still affecting him now.

@YankeesFiles @stribe39 @SassoCT YeSavage fantasy ownership brought me here (watching highlights from last night) but I thoroughly enjoyed this healthy banter between two beisbol knowers from up north and down here. -signed Mets fan

I sincerely hope that someday Yesavage is exposed as a gimmick fraud who the league has figured out. I fear he is way, way, way too good for that to happen.

I do agree though with them we should bring the review to a quick conclusion. I've seen and heard enough. Buy the Gripens @MarkJCarney and @DavidMcGuinty #cdnpoli

I don't suppose they realize they're making it politically unfeasible for Carney and the Liberal gov't to pick the F-35 even if they wanted to, but as someone else said to me... they don't care (or they're even dumber then I thought). #cdnpoli

@edhollett @IanGray94742199 @Murray_Brewster I don't suppose they realize they're making it politically unfeasible for Carney and the Liberal gov't to pick the F-35 even if they wanted to.

@IanGray94742199 @Murray_Brewster They want us to buy more of their weaspons to boost their economy at our expense. That is the *only* US interest in Canada: milking us.

Pentagon doubles down on Canada rebuke with demand for NATO spending road map, F-35 decision. Criticism follows U.S. decision to pause bilateral defence planning body. #cdnpoli #F35 #CanadaUSrelations #defence #NORAD cbc.ca/news/politics/…

@YankeesFiles @SassoCT I've read he actually had a 4th pitch in college - a knuckle curve - but he ditched it for whatever reason.. so I think I agree with you on the cutter . Thanks for the discussion! (and I feel the same way about Schittler that you do about Yesavage - tho the Jays have done ok.)

@stribe39 @SassoCT I have an aesthetic preference against curveballs, and I think something that tunnels with his 4 seamer and then moves glove side would be terrifying, so I’d go cutter. I’m no pitch arsenal savant though. He seems good enough to make anything work.

@YankeesFiles @SassoCT So if you were going to add a 4th pitch to his arsenal.. which do you think would work better - a cutter or a slower overhead curveball?

@stribe39 @SassoCT His slider usage this year is less than half what it was last year, though it has bounced back some (still not to 2025 levels) in his last two starts. He’s only had one start this year that was <80% 4S/Split

@YankeesFiles @SassoCT He struck Judge the 3rd time out on his 3rd pitch - the slider. There are speculations up here that maybe a 4th pitch will be needed.. some say a slower curveball.. others say a cutter.

@SassoCT Yeah it's nuts. And I also feel like that insulates him from needing an actual third pitch. Good for him, he's awesome and it works. I just wish it didn't work.

@corbin_young21 Blue Jays commentators were wondering about him adding a 4th pitch ... they said a curveball.. others have said a cutter might work better. Which pitch would you pick and does he need a 4th pitch right now?

Toronto Blue Jays' starting pitcher Trey Yesavage threw 6 scoreless innings against the Yankees in New York. Yesavage has been shoving any skepticism into my face so far. 🆙Yesavage's velocity was up over 1 mph across all three pitches via the four-seam (+1.3 mph), splitter (+1.9 mph), and slider (+1.4 mph). All would be thrown harder than in 2025. The splitter most notably lost 2 inches of downward movement, though most pitches fluctuated within 1 inch. ✍️He filled the zone with four-seamers (65%) and sliders (62%), with some located around the edges and others in the heart of the zone. That's a significantly higher zone rate via the four-seam (50.9%) and slider (46.2%) in 2026. It might've been an attempt from Yesavage to trust his stuff in the zone. 👀From a quick look, Yesavage had around 3 whiffs in the zone, with plenty of foul balls via the four-seam and slider. Several of Yesavage's slider whiffs came low and below the zone with hitters chasing, aligning with the 70% chase rate. 🪓That said, Yesavage threw his splitter in the zone 28% of the time with 6.9% swinging-strike rate and 19% chase rate. For context, Yesavage threw his splitters in the zone 36.2% of the time, so Yankees' hitters might have been laying off when it was low in the zone. Yesavage's 34-35% ball rate has been consistent over the past 2 seasons, yet we're seeing a significantly better walk rate, leading to a 20.8% K-BB%. I might've whiffed on Yesavage if he can sustain these skills.

@CanadianPolling @338Canada I would love to see the predicted seat splits on such a polling result.

Quebec Provincial Polling: PLQ: 31% (+17) CAQ: 25% (-16) PQ: 23% (+8) PCQ: 14% (+1) QS: 7% (-8) Others: 1% Mainstreet / May 15, 2026 / n=1143 / MOE 2.8% / IVR (% Change With 2022 Election) Check out all QC polling on @338Canada at: 338canada.com/quebec