susang
2.9K posts


This is about as bad as I’ve seen him.


🚜 Farms in the south are struggling: 78% of Southern farmers say they can’t afford all required fertilizer this year, the highest of any region.  The South is exposed for two reasons: crop mix and pre-booking behavior. Just 19% of Southern producers pre-booked fertilizer ahead of the season, vs. 30% in the Northeast, 31% in the West, and 67% in the Midwest.  Cotton, rice, and peanut growers, largely concentrated in the South, barely locked anything in before fertilizer prices skyrocketed. Only 13% of cotton growers and 9% of peanut growers pre-booked.  Those are also the most fertilizer-intensive crops on the board. Rice runs $1,308/acre to produce, peanuts $1,166, and cotton $943 vs. $658 for soybeans and $396 for wheat. U.S. farm sector losses have exceeded $50 billion across the past three crop years. Nearly all (94%) farmers say their financial situation has worsened or stayed the same vs. last year. Farms are getting squeezed.




#Wheat is ripping through shorts today. We also think fresh long money likely entered the market over the past few sessions. There is no obvious single trigger behind the move. It could be the cumulative effect of everything we have been writing about since the start of the Iran war: fertilizers, energy, sulfur, fuel. That is now colliding with U.S. weather risk and high odds of El Niño, which adds further risk for Australia and India. As I have said more than once this season, the global balance sheet was never as bearish as the majority of analysts and headlines made it sound. We issued a bullish outlook for #wheat on the first day of the Iranian war. Don’t miss the new ones: sizov.report/?utm_source=tw… #oatt #agwx #sizovreport







Bull market in U.S. grain prices???? This is composite of Beans, Wheat and Corn Massive base has been completed


The American corn crop is getting absolutely hammered







Wheat and corn are moving and have some of the best long-term charts in the commodity space. Look at $WEAT. Hence why I've been adding to my wheat and corn futures over the past two weeks.










