Josh

2.4K posts

Josh

Josh

@supply_side_acc

Healthcare, manufacturing, tech, economics. Occasional rants on the esoteric. Problems are soluble.

Katılım Temmuz 2024
374 Takip Edilen220 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Understanding Biotech: Antibiotics & Antibiotic Supply Chains With increasing focus from the administration and industry leaders on re-shoring pharmaceutical API production, one major drug class that stands out is that of antibiotics. Antibiotics are the cornerstone of modern healthcare, without which surgery becomes infeasible and critical care treatment becomes much more deadly. In this post I outline what antibiotics are, how they are created, used, and distributed and take two antibiotics as supply chain case studies in order to understand the current state of affairs for antibiotic APIs. open.substack.com/pub/supplyside…
Josh tweet media
English
0
0
1
250
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@aphysicist @Noahpinion I interpret it to mean you think existing models are capable of AGI level impacts or at least much more impact than say the IT revolution
English
1
0
0
26
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@Noahpinion Think AI works less than bottom right, more than bottom left. Not 100% unworried about AI but much less worried than either top quadrant. I’d say I’m probably just a little to the left of wherever Tyler Cowen is on here
English
0
0
3
204
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Well, that’s literally not true and your follow up replies are not relevant to the point. Fertility rate decline does not refute what I’ve said. NHS failures stem from their model of socialized medicine. Sex transitions are irrelevant. Any chart on diseases we vaccinate for will show vast declines in prevalence since those vaccines were developed. Israel has high fertility because it has a large population of conservative religious people, you can easily look up that fertility is much different between orthodox and secular communities. But I can tell this will be an extremely unproductive conversation so have a nice day.
English
0
1
0
37
smugayanami
smugayanami@smugayanami8083·
@supply_side_acc @tszzl @mrgunn All I see is healthcare buildings popping up everywhere. More nurses in the industry than ever and more people vaccinated than ever. Yet more people are sick and depressed than ever
English
1
0
0
63
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
mRNA tech? Gene editing cures for genetic diseases like sickle cell? A literal obesity cure? Overall cancer survival rates up 10-15% just since 2010? And that’s only a small fraction of progress just within medicine. People used to live their entire lives and never see a single piece of technology change from birth to death. If you haven’t seen progress since 2010 you’re just not paying attention or are taking everything for granted.
English
8
1
1
83
smugayanami
smugayanami@smugayanami8083·
@tszzl @mrgunn Notice they never give an example of this supposed "technological progress" . Nothing has gotten better since 2010
English
3
2
50
905
Josh retweetledi
roon
roon@tszzl·
@mrgunn technological progress is a fundamental moral imperative for the betterment of mankind. it’s unbelievable how good of a thing it is and what an uphill battle we have
English
105
59
1.2K
46.2K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@xwanyex @halogen1048576 I think it’s more they very obviously don’t understand what they are saying. That’s why it appears to us that they can’t reason despite implementing an algorithm that on its face seems reasonably close to what we’d think the reasoning process entails
English
0
0
1
276
wanye
wanye@xwanyex·
Nobody cares or needs to hear this from me, but I’m just registering my opinion that: 1) LLMs are a totally ordinary technology. But so were cars. Ordinary technologies can have big impacts. 2) They are *very obviously* not reasoning and the way that smart people specifically trick themselves on this point is critical to understanding many things about the world.
English
105
86
1.7K
178.4K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@AmorusF @ddebow Idk obviously anecdotal but I’m always surprised how frequently very successful Americans turn out to be Canadian. Either by birthright or first immigrated there before coming here. Like Elon immigrated here from Canada. I think that moved the dial
English
0
0
2
83
Adam Randall
Adam Randall@AmorusF·
@ddebow I can believe it hurts Canada but given the relative size of the US economy, I can't imagine it moves the dial much.
English
3
0
13
1.2K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@tszzl @xii_ai7 Movies will hardly ever be good adaptations due to time constraints. TV is better for that reason. But both are significantly constrained by how you can convey information on screen. Books are extremely informationally dense, lots of expositional narration on screen is boring
English
0
0
2
347
roon
roon@tszzl·
@xii_ai7 Arrival is actually better than the source material. Game of Thrones is excellent (S1-4)
English
9
0
103
7K
roon
roon@tszzl·
project hail mary was unfortunately a middling adaptation of a good book. the script has the unfortunate affect of “language model populism” - where every single line has to be some sort of punched up comedic zinger yet still unremarkable. visuals were uninspired and trite and more or less identical to other space movies. everything good about the film comes from the wonderful world scaffolding of the book and the hard science fiction of it all that lets you suspend disbelief on the alien rocky the movie doesn’t really try to get into the xenolinguistic stuff even at the depth the book tries (someone called it “arrival for idiots” which unfortunately hit ) the thing that elevated the book is the commitment to a hard science fiction engineeringporn fiction at a level nobody else is able to write. the direction of the movie doesn’t really convey the same feeling successfully, and you’re left with flat characters, an alien that is more human than several humans i know, and a marvel populism gosling and the german woman are great as actors, but this movie will not be remembered in a year. it is disappointing to see people do so little with a quarter billion, insane acting talent, and incredible source IP
English
230
29
1.4K
369.7K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@allgarbled Every adaptation is going to leave something to be desired. There’s hard constraints in how you can convey information on screen that doesn’t exist in books. Just appreciate what each format does well.
English
0
0
9
1.2K
gabe
gabe@allgarbled·
There’s an old saying my mother taught about watching movie adaptations of books. It goes… Book before movie: joy, then dismay Movie before book: joy all the way
roon@tszzl

project hail mary was unfortunately a middling adaptation of a good book. the script has the unfortunate affect of “language model populism” - where every single line has to be some sort of punched up comedic zinger yet still unremarkable. visuals were uninspired and trite and more or less identical to other space movies. everything good about the film comes from the wonderful world scaffolding of the book and the hard science fiction of it all that lets you suspend disbelief on the alien rocky the movie doesn’t really try to get into the xenolinguistic stuff even at the depth the book tries (someone called it “arrival for idiots” which unfortunately hit ) the thing that elevated the book is the commitment to a hard science fiction engineeringporn fiction at a level nobody else is able to write. the direction of the movie doesn’t really convey the same feeling successfully, and you’re left with flat characters, an alien that is more human than several humans i know, and a marvel populism gosling and the german woman are great as actors, but this movie will not be remembered in a year. it is disappointing to see people do so little with a quarter billion, insane acting talent, and incredible source IP

English
24
21
913
61.8K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Lots of input and lots of vocab work basically. Btw comprehensible input is for toddlers. You can accelerate your learning much more if you focus on content that is inherently interesting to you. No one wants to learn a language to understand their version of cocomelon. The insistence on comprehensible input is reductive (assuming what babies/kids do is optimal for adults) and an underrated part of why people quit early on.
English
0
0
2
221
taoki
taoki@justalexoki·
what's the best way to learn a new language in 2026
English
78
0
125
77.7K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Completely forgot the baby part. Honestly the biggest reason that was bad was bc movie Paul just changes his mind on the water of life out of nowhere based on some weird vision with Jamis. In the books it’s intense grief and a feeling he’s pushed against the wall after losing his son and realizing there’s no other way to win and keep his family safe.
English
0
0
2
125
Matt Vogel
Matt Vogel@MattVogel0311·
@tszzl @niteserpent after dune 2, my wife had many negative things to say lol. they made a ton of unnecessary and silly changes. I can forgive things like leaving out the dinner scene in move 1, but no baby Leto? thats massively important to Paul's character. nevermind whatever they did to Chani
English
2
0
2
1.9K
roon
roon@tszzl·
the dune movies were doomed from the start to be good and not great due to the casting of chalamet as paul. he does not have the gravitas for a child-god and is much better suited for kind of silly coming of age movies
English
1.1K
95
3.3K
3.1M
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@SaintTomDakin @MattVogel0311 @tszzl @niteserpent They have a baby Leto in the first book. He dies when the harkonnens attack sietch tabr. That’s what makes Paul finally drink the water of life because he was reluctant to before that. In the movie it’s out of nowhere after a vision with Jamis
English
0
0
1
50
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@10x_er The end of messiah is so peak I can’t wait to see it on screen
English
0
0
1
10
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Overall pretty great adaptation. Stilgar is much more fanatical in the movies than books and the ending to dune 2 is pretty different. Chani doesn’t storm off and they make pretty clear that shes the real queen even if Irulan is “queen” for political purposes. My issue with the second is that them being together and in love is pretty important to Messiah (this movie) so they kind of introduced pointless drama that they now have to clean up in their relationship.
English
0
0
1
111
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Spoiler for anyone else reading. But It might still be the last movie. Chani does die in childbirth and the kids birth is important to the final resolution of Paul’s story. Then in the books he walks off into the desert to die (technically not, but for all intents and purposes Paul’s story ends there). I think this trilogy is meant to be just Paul’s story. I think children of dune could still be a good standalone movie but they should end there if they do because the quality drop off is bad after children
English
1
0
1
32
Joseph
Joseph@Jospitta·
@supply_side_acc @DiscussingFilm Yeah but I thought this was the last movie. Chani in the trailer looks to be apart of the afterlife that was my assumption. And I think Paul gets killed in this movie even after giving up his power.
English
1
0
0
45
DiscussingFilm
DiscussingFilm@DiscussingFilm·
The first trailer for ‘DUNE: PART 3’ has been released. In theaters on December 18.
English
2.1K
27.1K
163K
16.1M
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@ApoStructura Chicago river walk is pretty nice
Josh tweet media
English
1
0
4
54
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Paul Atreides is basically Thanos if he was the protagonist and all the Avengers were evil selfish assholes
English
0
0
0
13
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
Good is a complicated idea in Dune. Paul can see the future and thinks the only way humanity can survive is if they are put through the absolute wringer and come out stronger. That’s why he starts his war. It’s kind of like if Thanos was the protagonist. But all his main enemies are also evil just with more selfish motivations.
English
1
1
12
666
Joe
Joe@Joe658457374815·
@Butterme287760 @DiscussingFilm I’m new to dune is that a good thing or bad thing? I can barely remember the first one, I know his daddy got slimed out by the fat dude
English
2
0
5
3.6K
Josh
Josh@supply_side_acc·
@Jospitta @DiscussingFilm I doubt it will be any part of children. It’s not weird to mention them because they are core to the messiah plot. Chani is pregnant for a lot of messiah. It’s one of the things that gives Paul urgency to protect his family. Not to mention the climax of the book.
English
1
0
1
88
Joseph
Joseph@Jospitta·
@DiscussingFilm So this movie is gonna be a mixture of messiah book 2 and children of dune book 3. Got it
English
1
0
0
848

Keşfet

@aphysicist @Noahpinion @tszzl @mrgunn @xwanyex @halogen1048576 @AmorusF @ddebow