Samuel Lee

@LTVcapital 50%-70% of the US supports rent control.

@svrnco Kinda common sense but that’s just me

MIT econ chair says rent control is terrible. His framing is milquetoast. Rent control proponents should be treated like flat earthers, climate change deniers, moon landing hoax believers. They reject science and reason to promote one of the worst policies.

@arpitrage His paper Situational Awareness was probably the highest alpha piece of public writing in the past 5 years. Master class in robust prediction. Dude is going to be a billionaire just from following the blueprint he laid out.

Leopold Aschenbrenner predicted in June 2024 that we would get a dramatic improvement in AI capabilities around the turn of 2026 due to the switch from chatbots to agents, which he thought would unlock a new set of AI capabilities Which is basically exactly what happened?

@orrdavid I'm about 50-50 when this happens to me. If it's small, I won't bother returning it, but if it's expensive, I'd rather return it. Giving it away for free is more effort than dropping it off at Whole Foods (which is a couple of blocks from me and I go there regularly).

@svrnco It's not my job to spend time returning the extra item. I'd probably just offer the item for free on craigslist to whoever picks it up fastest.

Someone took my somewhat expensive package (probably by accident) so Amazon sent me a free replacement. A few days after I received the replacement, the person returned the package to me, which I'm now returning to Amazon. What would you do?

9th -> 3rd* This is the same code as the one that I submitted right before going to sleep. Turns out that codex on its own decided to remove crucial code optimization. I explicitly told it to not touch it under any circumstance, but that didn't help🤦 FYI, this code optimization is something that doesn't affect the local environment but it has a huge impact on the server where solutions are evaluated. *Those contests have huge variance, so it's temporary

@SowingAlphaSeed The return hurdle for 2 is less than 1 because the benefit of rebalancing when shit hits the fan.

Thinking about the two extremes of long-term outperformance: 1. Great performance most years, survive when shit hits the fan 2. Okay returns most years, crush it when shit hits the fan Say shit hits the fan every 5 years. 1. 4 years of 40% returns and 1 year of -50% gives you a CAGR of 14% 2. 4 years of 10% returns and 1 year of 100% returns gives you a CAGR of 24%

@VibeMngmnt @IstragaB @grok Thanks for letting me know. Doesn't look like AAFS is publicly traded, unfortunately.

@IstragaB @grok translate and notify @svrnco

Američka kompanija AAFS traži 30 godina koncesije za sarajevski aerodrom: Obećavaju ulaganje u iznosu od 250 miliona eura istraga.ba/americka-kompa…

The AGI is already here – it's just not evenly distributed I have a friend who recently started optimizing his life with Claude Code (CC). Some of the more notable examples: - Gathered all of his medical records, analyzed them and used them to suggest additional health screenings (CC had access to his email and messages, but not his passwords; it went through his mails to find all the relevant clinics, reset the passwords, and navigated the sites to find the relevant docs) - Created high-level financial advice and a detailed expense summary based on his bank statements (PDFs/CSVs) and asset data (here, finding all the relevant documents was a manual process) - Created a custom gmail client where every email is automatically categorized, has improved support for unsubscribing (via CC) and allows quick payments with a single keystroke when someone sends an invoice - Created a local read-only database with messages from all apps and aggregates them by user + adds semantic search on top, so you can easily find stupid things your friends said ten years ago We're already at the point where agents are extremely capable personal assistants and their main bottleneck is not memory or reasoning skills, but the permissions that they have. And yes, this is all very risky and may fail spectacularly at any point, either due to agent misalignment or an external attack (like prompt injection). Just to be clear, I'm not suggesting that people should do this. But this sci-fi stuff is already possible and it doesn't even require any substantial technical knowledge (although it helps with avoiding disasters). It's going to get weird really soon for some of us.

GPT-5.4 is a big step up in computer use and economically valuable tasks (e.g., GDPval). We see no wall, and expect AI capabilities to continue to increase dramatically this year.

@SowingAlphaSeed @aruizdeh @luis71294214 The sponsor/issuer can ask the exchange to get options listed. It only requires an email. Options can also get listed even without the consent of the company.

@aruizdeh @luis71294214 I don't remember the exact requirements, but $PCMM seems close for getting exchange listed options. Might be able to request to have them listed. @svrnco might know how.

7 different CLO ETFs launched in February by 3 different issuers (Janus/Fidelity/Reckoner).

@SowingAlphaSeed Don’t change! Just do the same things you did when your account was smaller. Getting captured by the audience is how the big accounts get brainrotted. I never do stuff for likes and actually dislike it when a tweet goes too viral.

The X algo went crazy and I went from 1.7k followers to over 10k overnight 🙃 I'll try to be more thoughtful about my tweets going forward.

@choffstein Pity the guy responsible for explaining the highest listed expense ratio of any ETF 😂

Watching people on message boards complain about your ETFs and not being able to respond is infuriating. "Yes, XYZ is just a nothing burger generating a 1% fee." My guy, the expense ratio is 0.4%.

I didn't know anything about Farmer when I started following him, but I could tell he was a very smart guy just by his questions. Now I know a bit about his background and I can say: he's actually an extremely smart guy.

@SowingAlphaSeed I'd bet that you'd actually do well. Many of the best retail investors I know have engineering/software backgrounds. Some have become awesome PMs.

Down >1% already. Times like this I wish I was allowed to day trade, but I know I'd probably just make a bunch of stupid bets.

@RealHerbHoover @Fierce__beast @johnarnold Honestly the US would be far better off if he was made technocratic dictator for 5 years.

@svrnco @Fierce__beast @johnarnold If anyone ever asked my opinion on who to give money to, Arnold Ventures would be my first and only choice. No one’s ever asked though 😐

m.youtube.com/watch?v=15eRYd… smart guy

@CacheThatCheque Actually, @orrdavid is extremely jacked. He applied extreme focus to achieve peak physique 15 years ago; that power is now applied for the good of his investors.

Lol this guy blocked me a long time ago. Also 100+ kg in Japan doesn’t make you a “bigger guy”it’s basically morbidly obese unless you’re a sumo wrestler

@Finominally I know they added it to their strategies a while ago. They even wrote a paper about it, but I don't know of any public sources where they talk about the implementation in their funds. aqr.com/Insights/Resea…

@svrnco Do you have a source for AQR adding factor momentum? We replicated the fund multiple times, but factor momentum was not required, so am curious.

Allocators often presume high alpha is only available via expensive, exclusive hedge funds. One of the best counterexamples is $QMNIX, a global market neutral stock selection strategy that returned 22.6% from 2020-2025 and only charging 1.33%. It did have a brutal 3y stretch from 2018-2020, losing money each year, but you could have easily avoided most of the damage by applying a trend-following rule on the fund. A big change AQR made was adding factor momentum to their signals, which likely reduces the risk of a similar stretch. I think of QMNIX has the benchmark for alpha exposure--an active fund must have better return/risk and diversifying properties, especially considering fees. Over time, I expect investors will realize that the hedge fund structure is overwhelmingly rigged against them compared to much cheaper public funds.