@alphacharts365 I think they went down immediately after they raised prices! But on retrospect, that was a ? Manipulated shake out and then what a nice rally back to new ATH 👏
English
The Monk who sold his Ferrari
771 posts
@Clement_Ang17 @nakulprathi Thanks so much Clement🙏
English
Oh sorry I definitely misunderstood!
Short answer is I really don't know.... We will have to see day by day as the market gives out more clues!
What I would say is be open minded, the next names to lead may not necessarily be the same memory names! Tracking relative strength is the only way to figure out the answer - we need more time!
English
17 July 2026: Run For The Hills! 🤪🔥
Market Commentary:
Carnage in the AI trade all around as 'dip buyers' seem to be losing the fight here. The unwind was brutal, with many names in the AI infra thematic down at least -5%.
In dollar land, the DXY continues to find support above $100.60 as it now looks to challenge the 20-EMA above as I'm writing this. No change in the precious metals space: structural downtrends in Gold and Silver. Copper on the other hand has begun to succumb to selling as well, dropping below the 20-EMA.
No bueno in crypto land too, as the selling pressure spilled over - that said, BTC and ETH continues to trade above the 20-EMA, hence isn't clear yet whether they do become the next shoes to drop.
Lastly, MAGS RS one day has found sellers by the end of the session (GOOGL, AMZN), painting the picture of defensive rotation.
The technical picture continues to deteriorate, an environment reminiscent of 2021-2022.
Notes:
> MAGS already losing the battle after one day; AI semis, neoclouds, optical names continue to be brutalized. Unlike post-correction where relative strength is to be noted, near inflection points are where relative strength becomes the 'next shoe to drop'.
> Panic/Capitulation is a potential scenario on the table now. HOWEVER, many charts are so technically broken - likely an oversold bounce if anything.
> The short side is in full force: An environment for the nimble trader. Long-only traders should prioritize preservation of capital and be defensive.
HAGW!
English
@RealSimpleAriel @NickSchmidt Thanks so much Ariel and Nick🙏
English
@swingtrader003 @NickSchmidt When a few have tight spots where I can manage my risk. And once I gain traction on one name I’d look for another
English
@NickSchmidt @RealSimpleAriel Thanks so much 🙏
English
@swingtrader003 @RealSimpleAriel When they build a new base and tighten up like they did in April. No interest in looking for a bottom… want organized and tight action
English
@RealSimpleAriel @NickSchmidt @NickSchmidt @RealSimpleAriel , I was late in joining the spaces yesterday, but enjoyed the conversation and hearing your thoughts. I know you both are mainly cash. However when would you want to go long in sizable amounts ( like 10 percent position) in the AI / memory stocks 🙏
English
@Clement_Ang17 @nakulprathi Oh, I think we both misunderstood. You are probably talking about when to put back the shorts, right… I was asking when you would think about buying longs in these memory and AI stocks ( not small sampling sizes, like the ones you may press the pedal with big sizes). Thanks 🙏
English
@swingtrader003 @nakulprathi I won’t give trade recommendations as you’ll have to figure that part out yourself through studying but generally speaking you can invert pullback buys: stalk for weak wedging rallies into supply (declining moving averages or structural price resistance)!
English
English
Imagine a flock of birds flying south. Overnight wind pushed the whole flock lower. But the lead birds (memory stocks) are stronger and faster. They catch a good air current first, climb back up, and the rest of the flock follows their lead.
This of course works in both directions. Eventually, they’ll lose their leadership role and have less of an influence, but it’s a process
English
watching $SNDK hit my 1300 temporary support ⇨ don’t be surprised if this entire overnight decline in the S&P 500 gets erased
$SPY 745 ⇨ 748
English
@OptionsMir @SJL12866 Sure thing, thanks 🙏
English
@swingtrader003 @SJL12866 do you mind if I quote tweet this and make a longer post for everyone?
English
It takes a certain kind of swing trader to post the one clean winner while quietly burying the three others that just chopped up the equity curve.
New traders: even seasoned professionals are getting tested right now. Markets aren’t always easy.
Real pros adapt when conditions change instead of stubbornly repeating the same playbook. The rest are just selling hope. You are their product.
Trade accordingly.
What’s one adjustment you’ve made lately?
English
@RealSimpleAriel Got killed Ariel! Should have sold but didn’t and paid the price unfortunately. 😔… When would you think to get back into the AI names? Can you please explain your thought process? Thanks a lot 🙏
English
For some of you, this advice likely saved a lot of heartache.
While much of the market has been choppy, there are still areas showing relative strength. Keep an eye on $MAGS, $XBI, $KRE, $XLF, $XLV, and $HACK. Leadership rotates, and it’s better to follow the strength than force trades in broken groups.
Ariel Hernandez@RealSimpleAriel
Do you really want to buy the FIRST pullback after a 30% move for the $QQQ? Go back and look at $SNDK, without question, the strongest leader over the last 8 months. Even that name had a 7 week and a 9 week consolidation on the run up. So tell me again why you need to buy the high flyers on potentially Day 1 of a pullback and base building?
English
@OptionsMir @SJL12866 @OptionsMir, Mir, what is your thought process on the semi and memory stocks? I got killed on the commons and ultimately capitulated today. How do you decide when to get back in? Do you buy options or commons on these? Would you use stop loss or you let them run and not sell? 🙏
English
@OptionsMir @AdatiaSamir @OptionsMir , Mir, each did the overnight move in ASML and others give away now? Do you expect them to gap up to those levels in the cash session or is it time to be cautious? Thanks 🙏
English
@OptionsMir @ihatelosingg Or you meant it can go from 900 to 1000? Thanks again
English
Local bottom should be in for $EWY @ 165.
Confluence with $SNDK 1650 as stated below.
Should see it all firm up as $MU nears 900.
Thee bottom not to be mistaken with tradeable bottom
TraderMir ✮@OptionsMir
Should've figured the $SKHY listing would be a classic "sell the news" event. $SNDK is up over 30% since my pinned tweet and $MU nearly 17% — straight into trendline resistance. But these events are always messier than they look in hindsight. Remember $RKLB? I called for a 160% bounce into the SpaceX IPO — it delivered in under 2 months. Then I suggested shorting it post-IPO. It popped 18% on IPO day before eventually dropping over 30%. That’s the volatility no one remembers. What now? $MU: I like 900, but that trend line may need a few tests first so I'm in no rush. $SNDK: Premiums are brutal. Waiting for a settle near 1350, but watching for scalps/rallies around 1650. (for this week 1800 could find demand during the cash session). $LRCX: Watching to see if it holds $350 in the cash session. That’ll help tell if this semi selling is confined to memory names or broader-based and hitting equipment makers (most of which have heavy memory exposure). Plenty of easier setups elsewhere in the market right now — no need to keep forcing it here.
English
English
@OptionsMir @dolores_capital Thanks brother 🙏
English
@swingtrader003 @dolores_capital accumulation meaning if a sideways range starts to form they likely resolves higher not lower
English
photonics accumulation mode began.
shout out to dummies that think charts are useless. 🤣
TraderMir ✮@OptionsMir
$LITE bought more
English
@OptionsMir @dolores_capital Hi Mir, you mean it is time to look at photonics to get back in ? Or this is profit taking mode still going on?
English
@dolores_capital ytd for the space has been very impressive though. gotta take profits and relax a bit at some point, right?
English
@NickSchmidt Hmmm. Are you sure about that?
English
@OptionsMir Hi Mir, are you out of Micron, WDC? Or you think these have still a long runway? What are your price targets, thanks 🙏
English
@RealSimpleAriel @AldridgeJa50081 @RealSimpleAriel , that’s fantastic! What is the principal that you trade with Ariel! Awesome work! Is this your best stretch so far?
English
Like everyone else, Q2 was nothing short of incredible thanks to the historic trend that began in April.
June, however, was a much slower month. My best trade, $AXTI on the short side, is still open, but most of the month was spent taking profits on some incredible winners like $MU, $NBIS, $DELL, $DOCN, and $ARM.
The extended, choppy nature of the market has made it difficult to get re-engaged with the prior leaders. A day like today is a great reminder of why progressive exposure is such an important part of my process.
I’m not in the business of giving back gains after what was arguably the greatest two-month stretch most of us have ever experienced.
I’ll put together a full Q2 recap this weekend.
English