ASY

@jasonschips I appreciate the detailed analysis, but I dont think you are addressing @aleabitoreddit 's thesis on $SIVE. You are using different definitions for "bottleneck". I disagree that switching cost is zero in semi chains b/c diff laser arch. Point 3 is purely subjective

" $SIVE can reach $80b because $LITE is $80b" has to be the dumbest and most dangerous investment thesis ever. People will lose their savings listening to all this misinformation. It's sad and needs to stop (I am starting an anti $SIVE crusade). 1. $SIVE is not a bottleneck (despite it being the poster child of the photonics bottleneck craze). A bottleneck, by definition, must be the company that constrains the production of a massive downstream industry. To constrain production, you must both own hard physical assets and hold a dominant market share position. Sivers has neither. Sivers is a fabless design company that relies on WIN for Foundry services, and with revenues of ~$30 million, they hold near zero market share in the massive datacom laser industry. 2. Supply chain analysis is misleading. In semiconductors (or any industry producing a durable manufactured good) switching costs are near zero while process power, cornered resources, and scale dominate. Therefore, "who has a superior product" is far more important than "who supplies what to whom." CPO external light sources require quality lasers meeting noise (linewidth and RIN) and power (400mW+) specs. $SIVE lasers are far inferior to that of larger peers like $LITE. 3. $SIVE valuation is comically detached from reality. On NTM metrics, $LITE trades at 14x EV/Revenue and 32x EV/EBITDA while $SIVE trades at 50x and 650x (!!) those same metrics. As a permanent AI infra bull, I fully agree that consensus is too conservative; however, they are not off by two orders of magnitude. The misinformation needs to stop. Let's help actually help retail understand what they own.

@olsenbdnr @elonmusk @xai What's considered exceptional though? No matter how hard something technical might've seemed at the time, once finished they are no longer hard. Not everyone can have IMO medals

+++ and extremely truthful. 2 things I really admired about the @xai hiring process were: 1- Emphasis on what I have accomplished vs what school/job I was coming from and my prior title. 2- @elonmusk had personally had the time to screen each candidate for exceptional ability. I still don’t know how this is possible with such a busy and impactful schedule.

Conducted 2 technical interviews today. Reminded me how serious of a task this is. You get to decide potentially the next n number of years the person you are interviewing within the span of 30 minutes or so. I have nothing but hate towards those who conduct interviews without a care asking dumb leetcode hard questions they themselves couldn’t solve if the shoe was on the other foot.

The bond market and US 10yr are nearing a breaking point yet equities are at an ATH with signs that this bull market still has much more room to go. Let me explain why high yields don't break markets. What we have here is the US10yr yield (now at 4.56%) vs the $SPX (S&P 500) over the last 30 years...The more I look at this, the more I think the right question is not simply “Are high rates bad for stocks?” The better question is what type of high-rate environment are we in? Because there is a major difference between what historically caused recessions and what historically confirmed them. Several of the worst market declines over the last 25+ years were not always triggered by yields being high. They often happened after the bond market started sniffing out a real growth problem and after yields had already started collapsing. In other words, the 10-yr breaking lower was not always the bullish “rates are falling” signal investors wanted it to be. Sometimes it was the market saying growth is cracking, capital is moving to safety, and the Fed is probably behind the curve. IF the 10-yr breaks down because inflation is cooling while earnings remain resilient, that can be bullish. That is the soft-landing version. Lower discount rate, still-good earnings, and risk assets can breathe. But IF the 10-yr breaks down because unemployment is rising, credit spreads are widening, consumers are weakening, and earnings revisions are rolling over, that is not bullish. That is the recession version. Same move in rates but a very different message. So what is happening right now? Right now, the 10-yr is sitting near a major multi-decade resistance zone, and the S&P 500 is making new highs. That combination tells me the market is pricing a world where nominal growth, fiscal spending, AI capex, and mega-cap earnings power are still strong enough to offset the drag from higher rates. THAT is the key point. In 2000, 2007, 2020, and even partially in 2022, the breakdown in the 10-yr yield was less the cause of the equity correction and more the market suddenly pricing economic deterioration, liquidity stress, or an aggressive policy response. Put differently, rising yields usually reflect nominal growth, inflation expectations, or economic momentum. Collapsing yields usually reflect fear, recession risk, or a liquidity event. And this is where today gets interesting. We are not living in the same macro structure as prior cycles. The US fiscal deficit is much larger. Treasury supply matters more. Inflation is structurally more sticky. And AI infrastructure spending has become one of the largest private-sector capex cycles in modern history. The AI capex boom is not just a tech story. It is flowing into so many different areas of the economy. Semiconductors, power, utilities, data centers, networking equipment, electrical infrastructure, and labor demand. That spending is helping hold up parts of the economy that normally would have rolled over faster under this level of rates. Index concentration matters too. The S&P 500 today is not the same S&P 500 from 2000 or even 2010. A huge portion of index performance is now driven by a handful of mega-cap technology companies with fortress balance sheets, enormous free cash flow, global monopolistic distribution, and secular AI-driven demand. That changes the transmission mechanism of higher rates. A regional bank, small-cap company, or heavily levered consumer company can struggle enormously in a 5% yield world. Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta, or Alphabet do not necessarily struggle the same way because they internally finance growth through cash generation. So the market is not ignoring rates. It is saying “Show me the earnings damage.” And so far, at the index level, there hasn't been any. The major contributors to the indexes and the economy have the strongest moats and earnings strength has never been stronger. That is why traditional recession signals have looked “wrong” for longer than many expected. The economy is bifurcated. Tthe lower-income consumer looks stressed, housing affordability is weak, small businesses face pressure, refinancing risk is real (Commercial real estate is still digesting a much higher cost of capital) But at the same time, large-cap tech corporate earnings remain resilient because AI, software, cloud and infrastructure spending are offsetting broader weakness. I also think people are too quick to compare the AI capex cycle to the late 1990s telecom and internet bubble. There are major differences. Alot of the 1990s infrastructure buildout was funded by companies that NEEDED the capital markets to stay open (and it was largely driven by debt) Today, companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, NVIDIA, Oracle are investing from a position of massive profitability. Yes, now they've begun tapping into the debt markets to accelerate the buildout, but they are doing it from a position of strength, not survival. Whether the spending ultimately becomes excessive or will generate adequate returns is another discussion. Will there be overcapacity or will all this capex spend eventually disappoint? We shall see. But, for now, the earnings impulse is real. Hundreds of billions are being deployed into compute, networking, power infrastructure, chips, and data centers. That spending is flowing through the economy and supports nominal growth even while parts of the consumer economy weaken. This is why the bond market matters so much from here. Technically, yields look like they are attempting a breakout from a 20+ year base. And if yields do decisively break above this range and sustain above ~5%, I think the market eventually has a much harder time maintaining current multiples. Not necessarily because growth collapses immediately, but because the discount rate regime changes. A sustained move above this macro resistance zone would tell me the market is repricing term premium, fiscal risk, or sticky inflation again, or some combination of all three. That would put pressure on long-duration assets and make the equity market far more dependent on earnings growth to justify valuations. On the other hand, as long as the 10-yr is not breaking down in a disorderly way and not breaking out above this long-term resistance zone, the market can still have legs. It gives equities room to keep climbing, especially if the earnings engine remains concentrated in companies with real cash flow, pricing power, and balance sheet strength. Remember, the market tends to break when the bond market suddenly realizes growth is deteriorating faster than expected. And right now, that is NOT what the bond market is saying. If anything, the bond market is currently saying the exact opposite. Nominal growth + inflation are more durable than people expected. Now does that mean there is no risk? Of course note. At some point higher rates matter. Private credit reprices (it already has shown signs of fracturing), refinancing risk increases, government interest expense explodes higher (which is currently not sustainable), equity risk premiums compress, and weaker balance sheets start to run out of time as liquidity conditions tighten materially. Higher rates work with long and variable lags. But the nuance is markets do not top simply because yields are high. They top when liquidity deteriorates, earnings roll over, credit spreads widen, AND THEN yields collapse because the market starts pricing recession. Right now, we don’t yet have that full sequence. What we have instead is sticky nominal growth, sticky inflation, resilient mega-cap earnings, AI-driven capex, and structurally large fiscal deficits supporting demand + keeping liquidity in the system. That combination can sustain higher yields and higher equity prices simultaneously longer than most people expect. The next move in yields does matter a lot. A controlled drift lower would likely help broaden the market. A breakout higher would pressure valuations. A sharp breakdown lower would probably mean the bond market is seeing something in growth that equities have not priced yet. Until the 10-yr breaks decisively one way or the other, my view is that the bull market can continue, but the macro margin for error is getting thinner. Commercial real estate, refinancing cycles, PE leverage, consumer credit deterioration, and government debt servicing pressure all compound slowly before they suddenly matter. Eventually there is a level where the cost of capital begins overwhelming even strong secular narratives. But the difficult part is knowing where that threshold actually is and frankly, the market itself may not know yet either.

@stocktalkweekly Been following you, phenomenal calls. What's the difference between your X and Whop subscription?

The top 10 contributing stocks (on a dollar basis) to our +4,000% portfolio return over 29 months: - $VIAV @ $13.58 - $OSS @ $4.71 - ethereum:0xc18360217d8f7ab5e7c516566761ea12ce7f9d72 @ $112.87 - $AMKR @ $24.35 - $IRDM calls @ $20 - $VLN @ $1.57 - $BLDP calls @ $4 - $VPG @ $53.16 - $NBIS @ $23.92 - $SYNA @ $85.78

@copyconstruct Im glad I refused to invest the time to remember git commands other than `push/pull` and `commit`, or beyond the basic bash commands in the last 10 years.

Many of the old skills I learned the hard way are not … relevant anymore (eg, manually git rebasing). Agents are generally more methodical and faster than I was, and I used to think I was good. In time, ‘git’ itself will become a niche skill of a bygone era of software dev. 😞

@BullTheoryio > When the training phase ends and these companies shift from building AI to deploying it, the demand profile changes completely. Such a shit take to assume companies will eventually stop training models lol

🚨 MICHAEL BURRY JUST WARNED THE ENTIRE AI BOOM MAY BE BUILT ON TEMPORARY DEMAND. He published a post today calling Nvidia "the North Star, Orion, the whole Milky Way" and explaining why that makes it the most dangerous stock in the market right now. His core argument is: Nvidia is selling into a concentrated group of buyers Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta who are all racing to buy chips not because they need them for real revenue generating products right now, but because they are in a training and benchmarking phase that will not last forever. Hyperscalers currently account for approximately 50% of all Nvidia data center revenue. When the training phase ends and these companies shift from building AI to deploying it, the demand profile changes completely. Burry calls this the "bullwhip effect." When the buyers at the end of a supply chain over order because they are afraid of missing out, the distortion amplifies all the way back through the chain. Nvidia sees record demand. Nvidia locks in massive custom supply commitments. Data center financing expands to accommodate the buildout. Everyone bets the demand is permanent. Nvidia just reported $81.6 billion in quarterly revenue, up 85% year over year. Data center revenue alone was $75.2 billion, up 92%. The numbers are real but the question Burry is asking is whether the demand behind those numbers is structural or temporary. He calls it the "bezzle." A term coined by economist John Kenneth Galbraith to describe the gap between what people think they own and what actually exists. In a bezzle, the money feels real, the assets feel real, and everything looks fine until the moment it does not. Historically the semiconductor industry is highly cyclical. The persistent fear among analysts is that the current build out phase of AI will eventually lead to oversupply of computing power and when that happens the whiplash into Nvidia's revenue could be severe. Burry has been wrong on timing before. He called the market a sell in 2023 and it went up 131% since then. But the 2008 mortgage crisis he predicted also looked like a timing mistake for two years before it was not. The difference this time is that he is not just making a macro call. He is pointing to a specific mechanism, concentrated buyers, a temporary demand phase, and custom supply commitments that create obligations on both sides and saying the math only works until the training phase ends. Nvidia trades at 33 times forward earnings on $81 billion in quarterly revenue. If hyperscaler capex slows even 20%, that math changes very fast.

@juliarturc Chamath actually has a theme tho...he's conflating "attention" as a "mechanism to measure relevance/importance of info". Rogan is just retarded with the comment about wave function collapsing from measurement as "attention"

This is why we need to gate-keep science. Two pseudo-intellectuals thinking they discovered something deep, conflating >social attention >transformers attention >quantum physics observer (attention) These have nothing in common, other than the ambiguity of English language. Naked ladies on Instagram have nothing to do with a weighted average followed by softmax. But they're both so mind-blown by their discovery. Dunning–Kruger will only get amplified by AI sycophancy. Please call me out if you see me going beyond my own DK threshold.

@bxieus get this guy out of here, making it worse for all Asians in the US

This man is an illegal alien from China, but he was delivering a speech yesterday in San Gabriel City Hall, in Chinese, demanding the City Council to cancel the recent waste management contract — on behalf of all Chinese residents of San Gabriel. He came to the US illegally 3 yrs ago, initially he was selling cars to illegal immigrants, then he started selling Spicy Soy Pancakes on streets without a business license, earning $10K-20K monthly, never paid tax. He had been arrested for illegal business operation, but the local police didn't send him to ICE, knowing he entered America illegally, released him. He is an Internet celebrity on Chinese social media with half million fans, and a beacon of successful overseas Chinese by getting around American laws. His goal is to run for LA Mayor in 3 years. This is no joking. The woman standing next to him is his campaign assistant. One of his goals is making Chinese the official language of his city. In fact this city hall is helping him achieve his goal by allowing him to make a speech during the council meeting in Chinese language. His TikTok handle is laxiaotang, he is currently looking for a business assistant. You can find all his successful stories by searching keywords 洛杉矶卖酱香饼的小唐 on Google

@zostaff Honestly it's cool, nerdsniping hard. But from a societal POV, dedicating so much power and HW to trading, seems like a terrible use of finite resource and embodiment of negative implications of AI and creation of permanent underclass

20 years ago Jane Street's entire compute cluster was six Dell boxes stacked on the floor at the end of an office row. They called it the Hive. Last week they let Dwarkesh Patel walk through their new Texas data center. 4,032 GPUs. Each rack pulls 140 kilowatts. A normal data center rack pulls 10. 8,000 kilometers of fiber inside one building, and the fastest links are still copper because light moves more slowly through glass than electrons through metal. Bookmark it tonight. Then read the article below.

@suchenzang Naive take. CCP is evil just ask your parents' generation and the unemployed masses in China.

just practical people who love tech and can ignore a public image play of hostility towards the one country who will commoditize their non-existent intellectual moat they hate on open-source under the name of safety, they hate on ccp under the name of an authoritarian regime, but really in both these cases it's a rallying cry for a cultural ideological moat that keeps everyone together (on top of future promised financial rewards, which increases in proportion to a constant stream of anti-oss, anti-ccp, anti-employment propaganda)

@allin_pods @Jason the AI energy wall hit Tahoe. @NVEnergy is dropping Liberty Utilities to feed Reno data centers. Crucial: "Ratepayer Protection" laws don't apply to this B2B contract termination. How do we scale AI if the grid's "Duty to Serve" is being legally bypassed?

@Denistratos The default reaction seems to be a correction instead of pushing through to the new level -- or is there some other factor that determines the reaction?

#AAPL at $300 #GOOGL at $400 #NQ & #NDQ just 1.6% & 1.8% away from 30,000 respectively. #SMH is 4.5% away from $600. #SPX / #M2SL only 0.4% away from the absolute March 2000 ATH. So… now we wait for the news catalyst the correction will be pinned on - curious what the mass media explanation will be this time. And what are you betting on?)

@deedydas what about the same but for China/Taiwan/SK/Japan born CEOs?

Billionaire Michael Milken joked “if a US company replaces the US-born CEO with a CEO born in India, I buy the stock” But he reveals he hasn’t backtested the idea. So we did. In the last 15yrs, that would’ve 50x’d your money: 7.5x more $$ and >2x IRR vs S&P500: 30% vs 14%!

@suchenzang Demis or Elon?

at some point you realize there's often very little merit to fame amongst the tech elite, just people who well positioned to soak up talent around them, and are extremely adept at rewriting narratives to build their own legends after "the work" is already done for better or worse, there's somehow always a heavy selection bias for fantastic story-tellers everywhere, and the peak will never truly live up to the image they've created of themselves or in other words, never meet your heroes

@marmaduke091 Maybe RLM??

Wow. Infinite context windows "coming soon" mentioned in the Claude event. Very exciting. I think they made a breakthrough.

@suchenzang It's about principles. Live free or die

sure you're not completely "free", but if this is what daily life* could look like, would the lack of "freedom" be worth it? (*notably better for retirees than anyone else)

@zanehengsperger It's too bad I can't build a smelter by myself without talking to people otherwise I'd be all up on it

everyone wants to build a ai agents no one wants to build smelters

@jewliquid69 @lefttailguy @BoringBiz_ Sounds like you've never done anything very hard

@lefttailguy @BoringBiz_ it's narcissistic, expensive, puts sherpas lives at risk, and helps nobody. He's burning cash for the "instagram pic" / "facebook post" with zero thought of generating more money. Driven to what exactly? His mug smirking on everyone's timeline as they doom-scroll?

This is the type of person you have to be to get hired at Citadel Ken Griffin once asked a Harvard graduate with a Citadel offer letter what he would do if he had $10 million in his bank account The young man replied that he would quit his job to travel and climb the highest peaks around the world Ken Griffin responded by saying that Citadel was not the right fit for him

@andrewmccalip Can you talk more about this? Any illustrative examples?

Working inside hardware companies it’s obvious to me what AI needs to become. Most of the tooling explosion right now is just a placeholder until foundation labs catch up. If they had closer familiarity with the space they’d see the actual system that needs to exist.

@nimsdai damn who's been doing this?

Stop calling it a summit if you took a helicopter to or from high camps on the way up or down. We all see it. We all know who you are. Flying to a high camp. Tagging the top. Then suddenly — oh, a “rescue” from Camp 1, 2 ,3 …Convenient, right? Let’s be brutally honest: you didn’t climb the mountain. You visited it. The mountain doesn’t care about your excuses. The icefall, the exhaustion, the long walk down — THAT is the climb. Skip it? You skipped the whole point. A marathon isn’t finished if you jump in a car halfway. A summit isn’t a summit if you fly in between. Base Camp → Top → Base Camp. On your own two feet. No shortcuts. No helicopter from high camps . That’s it. Earn your respect. Or don’t claim the summit. Now, with the season getting a bit later, you might be thinking of cheating. Don’t do it. You can lie to the rest of the world, but you can never lie to yourself. This doesn’t only apply to Everest — it applies to all mountains. And yes, I have my own helicopter company with majority share. It would make sense for me to stay quiet and make money. But I’m totally against this practice. #EarnYourSummit #NoShortcuts #SummitEarned #Everest #ClimbWithIntegrity