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Tabor Macro
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Tabor Macro
@tabormacro
Global Macro I Geopolitics I Caveat Emptor
United States Katılım Kasım 2022
275 Takip Edilen217 Takipçiler
@markvalorian This is more of a problem in DFW than Houston IMO. Houston has plenty of trees, and they change everything, even with respect to cramped designs like this. You put that in the Woodlands with a forest of trees encircling it, will change the feel massively, even without lot lines.
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Texas real estate is a fascinating thing.
Infinite sprawling developments on totally flat land with no trees and zero lot lines. Some have nicer looking individual houses than others, but they all fit the same overall motif:
Maximum occupancy “People Farms”
Each person is afforded their own little “ostensibly unique” cookie-cutter node to sleep in between ventures out into the Concrete Corridor System to their job and chain businesses. It seems innocuous at first, but the more you see of it, the more it grates on your soul.
Jon Elder@BlackLabelAdvsr
I see these neighborhoods being built in Texas and I’m trying to figure out who in their right mind would buy a mansion with zero lot lines. Like, you could do a handshake through your kitchen window. Insane! Please make it make sense.
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian: "We are ready to assure the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons. We are not seeking instability in the region."
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I’d be shocked if Trump / Admin actually agreed to the MOU being socialized. Unless they clearly plan on breaking the agreement. I’m also surprised how adamant the admin (Rubio / staffers) are that a deal is getting done in accordance with Trumps red lines. Both parties are flooding the zone. The truth likely is somewhere in between. However none of this solves Israel’s existential issues with Iran / proxies. #IranWar #iran
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Europe has nothing left but the pretense of relevance.
Europe could have been so much more than this.
Ursula von der Leyen@vonderleyen
I welcome the progress towards an agreement between the US and Iran. We need a deal that truly de-escalates the conflict, reopens the Strait of Hormuz and guarantees toll free full freedom of navigation. Iran must not be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. It must also end its destabilising actions in the region, directly or through proxies, as well as its unjustified and repeated attacks on its neighbours. Europe will continue working with international partners to seize this moment for a lasting diplomatic solution. And to contain the spillover of this conflict, notably on supply chains and energy prices.
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Iran's Fars news agency said the latest follow-ups indicate that the US has again backtracked on the issue of freeing Iran's frozen assets and is "trying to make these resources credit-based and deferred to the future, but Iranian officials say they will not yield on this red line."
Another key point is the waivers on oil, petrochemicals, and their derivatives, the agency added.
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The US government has sent a message through a mediator, saying that the media representation of the negotiations and agreement by US officials will be for the internal consumption of American society and has nothing to do with the main provisions of the agreement.
LOL
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My lifetime has spanned the last months of the Eisenhower presidency until today.
What a time to be alive ...
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump
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After the Iran war began, many major foreign holders started cutting Treasury exposure aggressively.
Foreign Treasury holdings fell from $9.48T in February to $9.35T in March, nearly $138B sold in one month, a 1.46% drop.
Big sellers:
Japan: -$47.7B / -3.85%
China: -$41.0B / -5.91%
Taiwan: -$12.7B / -4.05%
Saudi Arabia: -$10.8B / -6.73%
India: -$7.6B / -3.99%
UAE: -$5.8B / -4.84%
Norway: -$5.6B / -2.51%
Singapore: -$5.7B / -2.04%
The biggest seller in dollar terms was Japan.
But the biggest seller in percentage terms was Saudi Arabia, cutting nearly 6.7% of its Treasury holdings in just one month.
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@gamesblazer06 Ill take Jamie over Lloyd any day. GS was a weekend from going out of business during the GFC...Jamie reaped the spoils.
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Imho Lloyd Blankfein is prolly one of the Best Markets Pros on the Street for at least as long as I’ve been around… when he’s worried… you best be.
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Is stress eating a big thing at the pods? I always did the opposite when I was on the buyside- I’d often forget to eat lunch & even dinner sometimes if I was too stressed with earnings, etc.
Hold Onto Your Butts LP@when_to_fold_em
I think the average L/S semis analyst has gained 15 pounds since December
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PSA for Bloomberg users with early experience with their shitty internal AI efforts…. ASKB has gone from barely usable to my favorite tool for ramping on new names.
Seems like they gave up and default to OAI now internally. Really fast too.
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don't disagree re: deflation in the long run. most/all allocators are fully invested (if ur not ur fired) and cost of capital matters (look at ORCL). re IPO window: there's a ton of stock coming to market (i'm sure as a 'pod guy' ur keenly aware). that needs to get absorbed. there is not infinite capital here...not to mention one of the biggest pools is currently fighting a hot war in the gulf.
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@tabormacro Doesn’t need to pray. Productivity drives deflation drives down yields. Only a matter of time. IPO window irrelevant in grand scheme of things since private markets robust
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My base case is we are very far from the overall AI trade being a bubble but instead we will simply have a constant sequence of mini-bubbles in bottlenecks as the trade continues to broaden out with speculation first focused on the supply side but quickly shifting to the demand side in areas like robotics, bio and labor automation.
Each time the benefits and economics will be hard to ignore and each time participants will be caught off guard by how quickly moats erode as AI is turned back on itself to solve constraints.
At a systems level this ofc leads to investors driving lower the multiples they are willing to underwrite even as the rate of growth they are willing to speculate is an order of magnitude higher than anything we’ve seen during the SPAC or dotcom era.
Shit is gonna get weird. No one knows shit.
🫡
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@TMTLongShort AI better pray bond yields come down...along w/ the rest of the ECM calendar
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@laurnorman @Alihashem @gabriella_roux This is a move by the Saudi's to delay any attacks until after Hajj. Look at the sources for the 'leaks' this week. All controlled by KSA / Pak
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@Alihashem @gabriella_roux I’m being slightly flippant here. Because clearly he is denying a new order. But the bottom line is that Iran’s official position is that they won’t send abroad.
What its actual negotiation fundamental position is remains unclear.
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A senior Iranian official denied to me reports that Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei has issued a new order requiring enriched uranium to remain inside Iran, saying they are “propaganda by the enemies of the deal”
The official added there are “no new order has been issued,” and that Tehran’s position has been consistent: Iran would downblend the material itself. “That is the subject of talks in the next stage,” the official said.
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@gamesblazer06 AI / Datacenters are for surveillance. The cat memes / productivity aspect is kayfabe
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AI is just another Productivity tool…. not unlike any other ones in history..
Nothing more & nothing less imho.
Maybe we should focus on Inflation, Real Wages, the Consumer… plus the Equity & Credit Bubble with the Private Credit Canary.
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Americans can barely afford a decent meal in large part coz of being jammed into another major War + WEF Failed Grand Designs…& now the Elite Intelligentsia are telling everyone how great it will be when they lose their job &/or see their power bill spike coz of AI/Data Centers.
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