Tim Culpan

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@tculpan @kapd1a True. Tim's Feb. 27 story here: culpium.com/p/tsmcs-n2-nod…

@dnystedt @kapd1a You heard it here first ✌️

TSMC’s 2nm capacity is now fully booked through 2028 and prices for advanced manufacturing processes are expected to rise in each of the next 4-years, media report, adding the 1.6nm (A16) process also faces heavy demand. Nvidia, Broadcom, MediaTek have been able to secure 2nm supply for the next 2-years, while Meta, Intel, others continue to place orders and seek capacity. $TSM $NVDA $AVGO $INTC $META #semiconductors #semiconductor money.udn.com/money/story/56…

Top three films I hope premiere at Cannes Film Festival this year 💖 -The Man I Love -Rosebush Pruning -This Tempting Madness #CannesFilmFestival #RamiMalek #CallumTurner #SimoneAshley

Great get for @SemiAnalysis_ Nice move @dylan522p and congrats @waynema

@hijack_chien No bans on GPUs to Malaysia.

@tculpan How about Foxconn ? The major server supplier helped Malaysia from a AI nobody to become a "AI super country"

Anyone surprised by the SuperMicro indictment: -wasn’t paying attention, or -was willfully ignorant

@Leoskie_L A good way to look at it. Signaling is everything.

The upside of keeping SMCI: zero. The downside: congressional hearings, SEC scrutiny, supply chain audits across every NVIDIA partner in Asia. Jensen's real calculation isn't about SMCI. It's about whether cutting them fast enough makes NVIDIA look like the enforcer, not the enabler. Timing matters more than the decision itself.

I think it would behoove Jensen & Nvidia to quickly and publicly cut Super Micro from its supply of chips. What’s the upside from keeping them as a customer? There’s plenty of others who’d take the allocation, without the security and reputation risk.

@ruudjuud @jbillinson 📺

@jbillinson Smartphones feel like the oddest collective delusion: everyone agrees excessive phone use is bad for them, everyone feels better without them, and we’ve structured all of modern life around using them constantly.

Deeply humiliating to realize how much this overpriced chunk of plastic has improved my quality of life in just a week.

Why would @TheEconomist interview @TuckerCarlson? He is seen as a buffoon and is now the subject of great @nbcsnl parody. Few in Washington even pay attention to him anymore. What does he know about US decision making on Taiwan? No one in the government will speak to him.

The Nvidia stans are awfully quiet today. Guess they’re too busy reading the Supermicro indictment.

I feel we ought to be talking more about Charles Liang. This latest indictment is just the latest in a series of Supermicro scandals. He’s been the boss throughout.

@TrungTPhan @realKunalAShah They were kinda kicked out of TSMC, tbh. Morris wasn’t happy with them. He couldn’t *force* them to sell, but he can be pretty convincing when he wants to get his way.

In 2006, Philips sold 80% stake in NXP for $8B to PE. In 2007, Philips started selling 16% stake in TSMC for ~$9B (it owned 28% in 1987 founding). Philips owned ~50% of ASML at its 1995 IPO and fully exited position by 2007. Took semiconductors cash outs to double down on lighting technology and medical devices (its largest deal ever wss $5B for sleep & respiratory care firm Respironics). Could’ve been worth $650B but now worth $27B. Wild.

🇺🇸Amazon CEO Jassy: "every provider would tell you, including us, we'd grow faster if we had all the supply we could take." 🇺🇸Google CEO Pichai: "We’ve been supply constrained even as we’ve been ramping up our capacity" Nvidia: We're redirecting supply to produce for China🇨🇳

Taiwan securities law requires every listed company to publish monthly revenue by the 10th. That's TSMC, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Gigabyte, Cooler Master — the entire AI supply chain. Before earnings. Before analyst upgrades. This is the playbook: culpium.com/p/how-to-use-t…

@kevinsxu Nice one. Good work @kevinsxu !

What an incredibly helpful post! Better yet, tell Claude (as I did) to "read" Tim's post, then code up a dashboard to track all the official data from the Taiwan AI supply chain. Took me (or Claude Code) ~15 minutes and a few thousand tokens and voila!

@DrewPavlou @forza__777 @2worldsPodcast Don’t waste your time on him @DrewPavlou Don’t amplify him. Don’t give him any oxygen. Bigger fish to fry, mate.

My full debate with low IQ groyper Will Mitchell @forza__777 hosted by Sam Bamford @2worldsPodcast

@Arronwei3n Did you just rip off Ben’s interview with Jensen Huang? Copy-paste someone else’s work wholesale!

Love this CPUs part, worth reading. Jensen: we were never against CPUs, we don’t want to violate Amdahl’s Law. Accelerated computing, in fact, inside our systems, we choose the best CPUs, we buy the most expensive CPUs, and the reason for that is because that CPU, if not the best and not the most performant, holds back millions of dollars of chips. _ The Role of CPUs in Accelerated Computing Well, to this point, one of the big things with agents coming online is, you’ve talked a lot about accelerated computing, I think you’ve trash talked as it were, maybe the CPUs to the day, they’re all gonna be removed, like everything’s gonna be accelerated. Suddenly CPUs are hot again. It turns out they’re pretty useful and important to the extent you are selling CPUs now, how’s it feel to be a CPU salesman? JH: There’s no question that Moore’s law is over. Accelerated computing is not parallel computing. Go back in time — 30 years ago, there were probably 10, 20, 30 parallel computing companies, only one survived, Nvidia and the reason why is because we had the good wisdom of recognizing the goal wasn’t to get rid of the CPU, the goal was to accelerate the application. So what I just falsely accused you of was actually true for everybody else. JH: We were never against CPUs, we don’t want to violate Amdahl’s Law. Accelerated computing, in fact, inside our systems, we choose the best CPUs, we buy the most expensive CPUs, and the reason for that is because that CPU, if not the best and not the most performant, holds back millions of dollars of chips. When it comes to branch prediction, you worried about wasting CPU time, now you’re worried about wasting GPU time. JH: That’s right, you just never can have GPUs be squandered, GPU time be idle. And so we always use the best CPUs to the point where we went and built Grace so that we could have the highest performance single-threaded CPU and move data around a lot faster. And so accelerated computing was never against CPUs, my basis is still true that Amdahl’s Law is over, the idea that you would use general purpose computing and just keep adding transistors, that is so dead, and so I think fundamentally we’re not against CPUs. However, these agents are now able to do tool use, and the tools that they want to use are tools created for humans and they’re basically two types. There’s the stuff that we run in data centers and most of it is SQL, most of it is database related, and the other type is personal computers. We’re now going to have AIs that are able to learn unstructured tool use, the first type of tool use is structured. CLIs are tool use, APIs, they’re all structured tool use, the commands are very explicit, the arguments are explicit, the way you talk to that application is very specific. However, there’s a whole bunch of applications that were never designed to have CLIs and APIs and those tools need AIs to learn multi-modality, unstructured, and it has to go and be able to go surf a website and it has to be able to recognize buttons and pull down menus and just kind of work its way through it like we do. That tool use are going to want to use PCs and we have both sides, we have incredibly great data processing systems, and as you know, Nvidia’s PCs are the most performant in the world. So what makes an agent-focused CPU different from other CPUs? So you’re going to have a rack of just Vera CPUs. JH: Oh, really good, excellent. So the way that CPUs were designed in the last decade, they were all designed for hyperscale cloud and the way that hyperscale cloud monetizes CPUs is by the CPU core. So you want to design CPUs that have as many cores as possible that are rentable, the performance of it is kind of secondary. You’re dealing with web latency by and large. JH: That’s exactly right, exactly. And so the number of CPU instances is what you’re optimizing for. That’s why you see these CPUs with a couple of hundred, 300, 400 cores coming. Well, they’re not performant and for tool use, where you have this GPU waiting for the tool use— And you’re going over NVLink. JH: That’s right, you want the fastest single-threaded computer you can possibly get. So is it just the speed? Or does the CPU itself need to be increasingly parallel so it doesn’t have misses and things like that? Or so it’s like just all the way down the pipeline is very different? JH: Yeah, the most important thing is single-threaded performance and the I/O has to be really great. Because it’s now in the data center, the number of single-threaded instances running is going to be quite high and therefore, it’s going to bang on the I/O system, it’s going to bang on the memory controller really hard. Vera’s bandwidth-per-CPU core, bandwidth-per-CPU, is three times higher than any CPU that’s ever been designed, and so it’s designed so that it has lots and lots of I/O bandwidth and lots and lots of memory bandwidth, so that it never throttles the CPU. If the CPU gets throttled, then we’re holding back a whole bunch of GPUs. Is this Vera rack, is it still, you talked about it being very tightly linked to the GPU rack, but is it still disaggregated so that the GPUs can be serving multiple different Vera cores? Whereas you have a Vera core on a board with- JH: Yeah. Okay, got it, that makes sense. How does your Intel partnership and the NVLink thing fit into this, if at all? JH: Excellent. Some of the world is happy with Arm, some of the world still needs, particularly, you know, enterprise computing, a whole bunch of stacks that people don’t want to move and so x86 is really important to that. Has the resiliency of x86 code been surprising to you? JH: No. Nvidia’s PC is still x86, all of our workstations are x86. $NVDA

There’s a single-question Easter Egg buried at the bottom of this post. Find it. Take it. culpium.com/p/inside-the-m…