Ted Dufner

@JonMarksMedia Dombrowski is a moron

……..

@PECOconnect absolutely worst! No power for almost 3 hours due to one of your boxes catching on fire. Call for an update and your representative is on their cell phone while answering my call and then laughs when she provides no information. Hundreds of $ of food out in trash!

@TMacPhils this just rolled through Chalfont. Very quick moving

@epawawx As long as nice May 30th I am fine with this

𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 𝗮𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗮𝘆... Aside from May 5th-6th when temps are closer to average, the rest of the 10-day period is notably below. May as a whole we continue to project -3.0°F to -5.0°F below average.

@JimBowdenGM Let’s talk after next year but keep chugging along buddy!

A+ #Cowboys acquire: Downs, Lawrence and 2 -4th round picks...eliminate Pickens drama by franchise tag and no negotiations this yr; sign Javonte Williams & Brandon Aubrey hire DC Parker.

@epawawx We need a nice spot to grab some beers to celebrate. Maybe invite @stormchaserray

@ted_dufner Mine follows 2 month's later... not looking forward to 50!

Nearer term, we'll have [overall] warmer than average temperatures, even if slightly so from this Friday through about the 23rd of April... then a transition week to cooler over the last full week of this month. We are still maintaining (and reiterating) our May monthly projections to be both cooler than average and wetter than average. How I come up with the long range projections every Friday publicly and twice more during the week privately is proprietary, but there is certainly sufficient support for our May ideas. This has nothing to do what a model says as some think is all we do - which is false... although they also agree with the cooler and wetter May idea. See images 1 and 2 attached. The 3rd image is the tropical forcing projections through the first week of May from the bias-corrected European ensemble... similar to the GEFS-extended progression. In an ENSO neutral (where we are currently) phases 6 and 7 are warmer phases, but 8, 1, and 2 are not. They are cooler phases. Given the lag time to see sensible weather effects, this would imply the tail end of this month through at least the first 2-3 weeks of May are colder than average. Not snow-falling cold, but colder than it should be at that time. It's always relative. 4th image is the stratospheric zonal wind at 10 hPa, which indicates yet another late-season zonal wind reversal, and this SSW has staying power. This supports a high-latitude blocking pattern (-NAO) setting up later this month and maintaining for awhile. This also increases the likelihood of those pesky upper level lows that stall near the region for days on end. A commonplace in Spring around here, but odds increase for a few of those to make May a downer overall. Don't shoot the messenger... surely not what I'd choose. Longer term summer stuff is beyond our 6 week long range lead time purview, but it does appear an El Niño summer is in the cards, and depending how strong that El Niño gets, could mean a cooler 'ish and wetter summer. But a little too early to commit to that now.

@epawawx I am shocked I have made it this far!

@epawawx More than welcome to swing down to good ole Chalfont, PA for the party

@epawawx As long as May 30th is nice weather for my 50th bash I am OK

@epawawx Awesome. I am supposed to be driving back from Myrtle. They are expecting similar weather tomorrow. Not sure I can get any window around these storms from what I can see. Wondering if I need to book an extra night to be safe

𝗦𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗮𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗠𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝟭𝟲𝘁𝗵: These are our proprietary outlooks, independent of the NWS Storm Prediction Center for tomorrow, Monday March 16th. Rather than regurgitate SPC information and passing it along which benefits no one, this is what a weather consulting firm does behind the scenes using our own proprietary methods. Typically this information is available only to forum and text alert members and private clients of EPAWA, but today is a freebie. The self-explanatory probability chart is the most valuable information in this case, with timing and chances to see the severe/on-severe parameters listed. If your location isn't on the chart, pick the closest one to you.

@stormchaserray @StormHour @epawawx @6abcWeather @spann @LiveStormsMedia @JimCantore @JGodynick I don’t expect to see a plow until tomorrow morning

Aerial View of the plows coming through with very Heavy Snow and Gusty Winds Chalfont PA #PAwx @StormHour 💨❄️

@epawawx Not going to lie just spit out a little bourbon reading that! Appreciate you brother!

@ted_dufner Damn it. Now you're going to make me lie on the video 🤣 Don't need a fellow bourbon connoisseur giving up in front of a snow plow lol

Recent HRRR cross-soundings are indicating some CSI, or conditional symmetric instability across much of Southern NJ, Delaware, and even getting close to Philly. Not so much NYC, but Long Island up to Southeastern, New England yes. Translation = some thundersnow possible 👀

@epawawx Ugh. Off to bourbon store tomorrow. Can we live stream as we drink bourbon and beer? Totally unfiltered!

What's nuts is I disappeared for a while this evening, and I come back to questions of why other sources are way lower than what we projected at 5:00pm. I've got news for you...we might not be high enough. Some of these models are straight up choosing violence this evening.

@epawawx @badshotgames I would pay to watch that especially if you replied to comments.

@badshotgames @ted_dufner Don't tempt me. If it wasn't for my wife, there would have been some quality bloopers over the years 🤣

I will be out this evening and not able to answer additional questions beyond what we have listed in the Weather Alerts discussion. Been at it since 5:30am today and need some wifey time and R&R. Video I'll publish after 11:00pm yet.

@epawawx FML.

𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗲 𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗸𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗮𝗷𝗼𝗿 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗺... View it here~> epawaweather.com/weather-alerts/ Expectations of snow are defined on Weather Alerts with a full synoptic discussion about this system, including timing and impacts.

@PhilliesNation Well at least they kept Ben Davis.

NBC Sports Philadelphia reportedly eliminates Phillies sideline reporter role philliesnation.com/2026/02/nbc-sp…

@epawawx My beer distributor hooked me up with her last case of Nugget Nectar to enjoy this weekend!

I refuse to play these GFS mind games

@epawawx No. Make it all go away. My liver is screaming at me

EPAWA's 2/7-2/8 weekend outlook, covering: ■ Very cold temps this weekend and very windy ■ Dangerous wind chills Saturday, falling temps ■ A look at possible wintry systems next week youtu.be/Kf0Bx8GXTa4